Race and sports book director Johnny Avello checks the screens at the sports book at Wynn Las Vegas on Wednesday, May 4, 2011.
Monday, Sept. 5, 2011 | 8 p.m.
Note: LasVegasSun.com will run betting previews for all 32 NFL teams over the next four days. They’ll be broken up by division with a prominent Las Vegas oddsmaker offering his input.
Poll a handful of NFL fans about which divisional race they are most looking forward to this season and the NFC North and NFC South are bound to fall somewhere near the top in votes.
The two divisions are expected to play out with the most parity in the league. John Avello, race and sports book director at Wynn Las Vegas, couldn’t rule out successful seasons for seven of the eight teams in those divisions.
“I know there’s only one team I don’t expect to do much in there,” Avello said. “That’s the Carolina Panthers. A rookie quarterback spells disaster in the NFL.”
In the last four years, four different teams have won the NFC South. Three different teams have finished at the top of the NFC North. The only one that hasn’t, the Detroit Lions, are one of the most up-and-coming squads in the NFL.
The two divisions have produced the last two Super Bowl champions, with the North’s Green Bay Packers last year and the South’s New Orleans Saints in the 2009-2010 season.
The year-to-year fluctuation makes wagering on the divisions sound daunting, but don’t fret. Click through below for betting information on each of the eight teams.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSAtlanta Falcons
2010 Against-the-spread record: 11-6 (13-4 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 15-to-1
Over/under win total: 10 (over -110, under -110)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 13 of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “Atlanta had a great year last year, and I expect them to be around 10 or 11 wins again. They ended up winning the NFC home field advantage and I think they’ll battle for it again.”
Overview: Sports Illustrated’s Peter King picked the Falcons to win this Super Bowl this season. That’s noteworthy because King’s prediction of the Packers over the Steelers before the 2010 season proved prophetic. Despite finishing with the league’s second-best record a season ago, Atlanta is only in the middle of the pack as far as preseason action in the sports books.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSCarolina Panthers
2010 Against-the-spread record: 4-12 (2-14 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 300-to-1
Over/under win total: 4.5 (over -110, under -110)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in all 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “Carolina is 25-to-1 to win the division. At 25-to-1, people usually think they are getting value because you’ve only got to beat three other teams. But they are staying away from Carolina even at that price. People want nothing to do with them.”
Overview: Like Avello said, the Panthers forecast as one of the least-supported teams in town this season. The combination of rookie quarterback Cam Newton and a mediocre defense that finished 18th out of 32 teams in total yardage a season ago doesn’t strike confidence in bettors. Carolina has traditionally been a strong under team, as it’s been five seasons since the majority of its games eclipsed the total.
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/AP Photo/Mike GrollNew Orleans Saints
2010 Against-the-spread record: 7-10 (11-6 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 12-to-1
Over/under win total: 10 (over -160, under +140)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 14 of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “I think New Orleans is going to be very good. I personally look at this division as a two-team race. It’s going to come down to Atlanta or New Orelans.”
Overview: The Saints have become one of the betting public’s favorite teams over the past two seasons, in no small part because of the 2010 Super Bowl win and quarterback Drew Brees. New Orleans’ backers weren’t rewarded last year and most notably took a hit when it lost outright at Seattle as a 10-point favorite in the first round of the playoffs. The Saints were ravaged by injuries last year — and were down to their fifth running back in the playoffs — so a little more luck could go a long way in 2011.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSTampa Bay Buccaneers
2010 Against-the-spread record: 10-5-1 (10-6 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 30-to-1
Over/under win total: 8 (over +120, under -140)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 10 of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “Tampa’s gotten a lot of hype, and I think they’re going to be OK. I don’t think they’ll be as good as people expect, they could take a step back.”
Overview: Tampa Bay is a study in how fast betting perceptions can change in the NFL. The public wanted nothing to do with the Buccaneers going over 5.5 victories last preseason, but now leans towards them going over eight victories this season. Tampa Bay — led by players like second-year running back LeGarrette Blount and third-year linebacker Geno Hayes — is the youngest team in the NFL. It was tied for fourth in turnover margin last season and went 5-1 in games decided by a field goal or less, which indicates good fortune that’s usually difficult to maintain from year-to-year.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSChicago Bears
2010 Against-the-spread record: 12-6 (12-6 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 50-to-1
Over/under win total: 8 (over +120, under -140)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in nine of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “I think they were very fortunate last year. I thought it was a remarkable season, but Jay Cutler is a quarterback who struggles at times and looks brilliant at times. I don’t know if they’ll have what it takes to do it again.”
Overview: Chicago gets a ton of action in pre-season futures every year. It has less to do with the product on the field than the team’s massive fan base that loves holding tickets on their Bears. It’s common knowledge that the Bears defense makes them a solid under team. Over the last three seasons, the under is 29-21 in Bears games.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSDetroit Lions
2010 Against-the-spread record: 12-4 (6-10 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 25-to-1
Over/under win total: 8 (over -160, under +140)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in 10 of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “They’ve gotten a lot of action to win the division and I think they could do it. I’ve got a lot of money on them to win the Super Bowl this year. They’ve got a good following, believe it or not. It’s even more this year, but if you go back and look in previous years, they get bet in the future book.”
Overview: It’s traditionally a smart idea to locate a team like the Lions receiving mainstream preseason hype and play against them. But oddsmakers like Avello are hesitant to write off Detroit as undeserving of the attention. The thought is every team will have a tough time rushing against Detroit’s defensive line of budding star Ndamukong Suh and rookie Nick Fairley. If quarterback Matthew Stafford — who has impressed in the preseason — can stay healthy, Detroit could finish as Las Vegas’ most profitable team for the second year in a row.
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Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESSMinnesota Vikings
2010 Against-the-spread record: 5-11 (6-10 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 40-to-1
Over/under win total: 7 (over -120, under Even)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Underdog in nine of 16 games
Avello’s thoughts: “I’ve heard for calls of them being better, but have they improved at quarterback? I’m not sure. They have a running back for sure, but the question is, are they going to be improved from last year? I’d say a little, but not much.”
Overview: Before jumping on the “Minnesota is going to be awful” bandwagon, consider a few things. The Vikings, at their core, are still a veteran team that was moments from the Super Bowl two years ago. Last season was a fiasco in many ways and the long-term prospects may not look bright, but an offensive nucleus of quarterback Donovan McNabb, running back Adrian Peterson and receiver Percy Harvin isn’t anything to sneeze over.
Green Bay Packers
2010 Against-the-spread record: 13-7 (14-6 straight)
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 5-to-1
Over/under win total: 11.5 (over +135, under -155)
Cantor Gaming’s full season lines: Favored in 15 of 16 games, with one pick’em
Avello’s thoughts: “The Packers are a very good football team. They haven’t lost a lot. It’s hard to see them going anywhere.”
Overview: Not since the 2006 New England Patriots has a team won a playoff game the year after taking the Super Bowl. Green Bay could easily buck that trend this season. The Packers emerged as champions last season despite dealing with as many injuries as anyone in the league and having to win three consecutive road playoff games. Unsurprisingly, New England and Green Bay have the highest posted win totals in Las Vegas.
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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