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January 31, 2015

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The Policy Racket

Poll shows Perry leading Romney among likely GOP voters in Nevada


Sue Ogrocki / AP Photo

Republican presidential candidate Texas Gov. Rick Perry speaks at the Tulsa Press Club in Tulsa, Okla., on Monday, Aug. 29, 2011.

Click to enlarge photo

Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks during the Iowa GOP/Fox News Debate at the CY Stephens Auditorium in Ames, Iowa, Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011.

Could Nevada catch Perry fever?

According to a poll released Friday by Republican firm Magellan Strategies, it already has.

The poll of 631 Republicans puts Texas Gov. Rick Perry up five points over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the GOP presidential primary race in Nevada. Perry draws 29 percent of the vote, while Romney draws 24 percent.

Nationally, those numbers wouldn’t be all that dramatic or surprising. But Nevada is a state Romney won handily in the 2008 presidential primaries. It’s a state in which Romney has the best and most established ground organization.

He’s even highlighting the Silver State on the national campaign trail — Romney unveils his big jobs plan in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

Perry hasn’t even shown up.

Still, Perry’s numbers in this poll are solid: 64 percent of those surveyed have a favorable opinion of Perry, compared to 63 percent for Romney; 16 percent have an unfavorable opinion of Perry, compared to 21 percent for Romney; and 18 percent have never heard of Perry, while 15 percent have never heard of Romney.

It’s a close race. But in a poll with a 4 percent margin of error, the takeaway is less about who between Romney and Perry will win and more of an indication that Nevada’s shaping up to be a two-way race.

Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich each secured between 5 and 7 percent of the potential vote in the Magellan poll of Republicans, 96 percent of whom said they are extremely or very likely to vote in the Nevada caucuses.

Of course, turnout on caucus day depends more on the comparative organization of the campaigns. Paul’s outfit, which turned out a second-place finish in 2008, already has boots on the ground, while Bachmann’s campaign hasn’t yet decided when or if it will be campaigning in Nevada.

Because the Nevada caucuses aren’t winner-take-all, if two candidates make a strong showing, they’ll split the spoil of delegates.

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  1. In the future, when you site a poll can you please link to the polling methods and data. The results without this context for the interested voter is less useful. For instance, was this a poll that focused on Romney and Perry, or were all candidates given an equal chance to be the "candidate of choice" for the person polled? Were all listed initially? Was there a rotating order? The methods may be mundane for the body of the story but a link to the full report relied upon by the reporter is easy.

  2. Heh heh... "cite" a poll. Thanks!

  3. Dayvid: There is now a link in the story that might answer some of your questions. Thanks.

  4. If Obama doesn't grow some grapes then we better learn to like President Perry.

  5. <<Palin/Bachman '12!

    Oh, yeaah!>>


  6. I think the bigger take away from this poll is that virtually HALF of those polled considered themselves to be part of the "TEA PARTY MOVEMENT." I think the results of this poll might not accurately reflect all likely Republican voters in the State unless there's been some sort of huge shift that has been unreported.

  7. I would love to have our State back the way it was, and so many of the haters on this page could go back to "real job's) including me. But, I want to say, a lot of People in the Tea Party were NOT Sharron Angle supporters. Many on this page are no better than she was/is..thinking differently. You just keep bad mouthing Tea Party citizens, you will see, we know where we need to go, and you just keep adding fuel. I am SOOO Tea Party Positive, but I am NOT Tea Party Express, or .org or .net. Tea Party people are simply for Stopping this spending, smaller government, and State's right's.

  8. <<Who ever thought that it would only take two and a half years for Obama to make Bush look good...>>

    Mmmmm...this article has nothing to do with Obama OR Bush.

  9. "I do know that he's been a C-130 pilot, has made a fortune in real estate, and has been elected governor of Texas three times"

    Gee, real good credentials to be president. Did he pilot those C-130's in a war zone? Nope. So he made a fortune in real estate. So did Donald Trump and a lot of other people. As far as being governor of Texas 3 times - don't know if it was because he was good at the job or the good people of TX had no other good candidate to choose from. He was just the lessor of two evils.

  10. Rick Perry could very well be our next president. As destructive as that may be.

  11. It says everything that GOP voters have flocked to Dubya 2.0 over the rest of their field.

    All that talk about how the tea party changed the GOP, and the frontrunner is just another Dubya republican clone.

    I hope Perry wins the nomination. I'd love to see Obama run against Dubya again.

  12. Well this race is all but over, doesn't take a genius to see its Perry verses Obama, The only real question is who he picks as VP, probably Rubio, but I think Sandoval is in the running also.

  13. Wouldn't it be great if these comment sections came equipped with an "ignore the author" feature? A little check box after everyone's nick that would allow each viewer to collapse comments from individuals they find offensive. Each reader could create their own personalized "ignore list" database for all future comments. No one would feel they are being censored, because no one would know whose ignore list they are on.

    Doesn't seem like it would be that difficult to incorporate. It will probably be standard equipment in the next updated version of internet.

    The way it stands right now, these comment sections are like walking through a mine field. Too much of a challenge weeding out the good from the bad. Way too much rude commentary.


  14. Good call Sarge on gmag is one of the worst posters here when it comes to stretching (and thats putting it mildly) facts. gmag is the reason that liberal is or has become a bad name. I wish posters like gmag would just go away to after election.

  15. "Perry fever"? Is that similar to "Angle fever"?

    jaunsanchez--it doesn't take a genius to see that it will be Obama v Romney, with Obama the winner.

  16. When I think about elections and who is running. I look at what they have done. With Gov.Perry in power Texas has performed far better than any other State during this economic Crisis. At least Gov. Perry has managed to keep the State Government out of the way and let business do what it does best. They create jobs. If for no other reason Gov. Perry stands above the other candidates.

  17. Ron Paul is the only one who can beat Obama. A lot of lib "anti war" supporters would vote for him as well as a lot of "anti big corporation" libs who see obama for being the corporate howare that he is. (as are all the other Rep's running for president, Bush, etc)

    Fact is Dr Paul would not be able to "cut" programs as he wishes, that would take the approval of Congress, but he would be able to bring the troops home right away being the commander and chief of the military. He would be able to close gitmo right away. He would be able to cut all aid to Israel and all other countries right away and focus his attention on our borders and our dismal fiscal and financial situation at home. Anyone but Ron Paul will keep the status quo; open borders, more unjust undeclared wars, more waste, etc etc. The way I see it this country does the right thing and elects Ron Paul this time around to provide a strong "check and balance" against the big spenders or this bus continues full speed ahead towards a cliff.

  18. Rick Perry:
    "Texans, on the other hand, elect folks like me -- you know the type, the kind of guy who goes jogging in the morning packing a Ruger .380 with laser sights, loaded with hollow point bullets, and shoots a coyote that is threatening his daughter's dog."

    - Protecting the dogs of America and following in the footsteps of Jesus, his favorite philosopher.

    He'll drive the coyotes out of Washington, like Saint Patrick drove the snakes out of Ireland...except the coyotes will be replaced by wolves.

  19. um, james f. nance, jr., aka sgtrock,, and your little buddy "magicjuan"...
    (is magicjuan ANOTHER one of your alter egos, Nance?)

    Ha ha ha ha ha!!!
    Hey, boys...
    after the coming election,
    will you cry like little girls like you did when Crazy Angle threw her own election, or like you did when your good pal the Less Than Honorable Senator Ensign resigned?
    Ha ha ha ha ha!!!