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UFC 139 breakdown, betting odds and picks

San Jose card littered with competitive matchups

In many respects, the UFC is getting back to what it does best with Saturday's card at the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif.

The event is loaded with 12 fights and most of them have close to pick'em lines in the sports books. All five of the bouts on the main card are about equally intriguing.

None of the fights on the pay-per-view card, which begins at 6 after preliminary bouts air on Spike at 5 and stream on facebook at 2:45, feature a favorite of -200 (risking $2 to win $1) or greater.

The Las Vegas Sun's picks panel failed to come to a unanimous decision on nine of the 12 fights on the card. They didn't agree completely on any of the main card fights, either.

Look below to find betting odds, breakdowns and picks from Las Vegas Sun's Case Keefer (102-62), ESPN Radio/Cagewriter.com's Steve Cofield (100-64), KSNV's Kevin West (99-65) and ESPN.com's Brett Okamoto (85-47) on every fight.

Dan Henderson

  • Age: 41
  • Height: 5’11''
  • Weight: 207
  • UFC record 5-2
  • MMA record 28-8
  • Out of: Temecula, Calif.
  • Betting line: +110

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’1''
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 20-5
  • Out of: Curitiba, Brazil
  • Betting line: -140

Light Heavyweight Bout

Main Event

Last fight: Defeated Fedor Emelianenko via first round TKO at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Henderson.

Punch list: He knocked out his last three opponents in Strikeforce. Henderson is the rare breed of fighter who seems to improve or at least not lose anything with age, following in former teammate Randy Couture’s footsteps. He’s back for his third run in the UFC, where his only two loses were in championship bouts.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Rua

Cofield: Henderson

Last fight: First round knockout victory against Forrest Griffin at UFC 134.

Punch list: After looking rusty in a UFC 128 loss to Jon Jones, Rua was golden against Griffin. Shogun caught Griffin, an opponent he had previously lost to, less than two minutes into the bout and finished. He’s been maddeningly inconsistent in the UFC, but says it’s because of injuries. When Rua is healthy, he’s among the best in the world.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Rua

Okamoto: Henderson

Cung Le

  • Age: 39
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 7-1
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: -150

Wanderlei Silva

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5’11''
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 3-6
  • MMA record 33-11-1
  • Out of: Las Vegas
  • Betting line: +120

Middleweight Bout

Co-Main Event

Last fight: Second round knockout victory over Scott Smith at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum.

Punch list: The former Strikeforce champion receives a dream scenario for his first UFC bout — a matchup in his hometown against a legend. Le was an undefeated kickboxer before transitioning to MMA. He’s also an actor who has roles in four films slated for release next year.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Silva

Cofield: Le

Last fight: First round knockout loss to Chris Leben at UFC 132.

Punch list: It speaks to Silva’s reputation that he’s 1-3 in his last four fights and still in a co-main event. Fans love “The Axe Murderer”. UFC President Dana White hoped Silva would retire after his last loss, but ended up offering him the fight with Le after original opponent Vitor Belfort pulled out with an injury.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Le

Okamoto: Silva

Brian Bowles

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’7’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 10-1
  • Out of: Athens, Ga.
  • Betting line: +180

Urijah Faber

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’6’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 25-5
  • Out of: Sacramento, Calif.
  • Betting line: -220

Bantamweight Bout

Featured Contest

Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 132.

Punch list: Bowles hoped the victory over Mizugaki would be enough to get him the next title shot against Dominick Cruz. When the UFC chose to give Demetrious Johnson the opportunity instead, Bowles took the next best option — a fight likely to determine the top contender with Faber. Bowles lost to Cruz in March 2010 after breaking his hand early in the fight.

Staff picks:KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Faber

Cofield: Faber

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Dominick Cruz at UFC 132.

Punch list: “The California Kid” might have more crowd support than anyone else at the HP Pavilion. His hometown is a short trip down I-80 from the venue. Faber’s UFC run has been a mixed bag so far. He shook off a rough first round to beat Eddie Wineland and then looked terrific against Cruz but didn’t do enough in any of the judges’ opinions to win.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Bowles

Okamoto: Faber

Rick Story

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’10''
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 6-2
  • MMA record 13-4
  • Out of: Vancouver, Wash.
  • Betting line: -150

Martin Kampmann

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’0''
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 8-4
  • MMA record 17-5
  • Out of: Las Vegas
  • Betting line: +120

Welterweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Fight

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Charlie Brenneman at UFC on Versus 4.

Punch list: The stunning upset against Brenneman snapped a six-fight winning streak and potential title contender status for Story. The wrestler has seven career wins by decision, three by submission and three by knockout.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Kampmann

Cofield: Story

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC on Versus 3.

Punch list: The Xtreme Couture-product is simply happy to get back into the octagon after an eight-month injury absence. Many feel the loss to Sanchez was one of the worst decisions of the year, as Kampmann did more damage and thoroughly out-struck the former champion of “The Ultimate Fighter”.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Kampmann

Okamoto: Kampmann

Kyle Kingsbury

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’4’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 4-1
  • MMA record 11-2
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: -135

Stephan Bonnar

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6’4’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 7-6
  • MMA record 13-7
  • Out of: Las Vegas
  • Betting line: +105

Light Heavyweight Bout

Pay-Per-View Opener

Last fight: Unanimous decision win against Fabio Maldonado at “The Ultimate Fighter” 13 finale.

Punch list: “Kingsbu” is one of the 205-pound division’s most colorful characters, what with his love for fanny packs and the color pink. He’s developing the fighting résumé to match it as he’s won four straight since graduating from the cast of “The Ultimate Fighter” 8.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Kingsbury

Cofield: Kingsbury

Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Igor Pokrajac at “The Ultimate Fighter” 12 finale.

Punch list: If Bonnar has proven anything through his UFC career, it’s that he can take a punch. He’s never been knocked out and his two TKO losses were due to cuts. That quality can’t be underestimated against an opponent like Kingsbury, who has powerful hands.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Bonnar

Okamoto: Kingsbury

Jason Brilz

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 5’11’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 3-3
  • MMA record 18-4-1
  • Out of: Omaha, Neb.
  • Betting line: +255

Ryan Bader

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6’2’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 5-2
  • MMA record 12-2
  • Out of: Tempe, Ariz.
  • Betting line: -315

Light Heavyweight Bout

Spike Prelim

Last fight: First round knockout loss to Vladimir Matyushenko at UFC 129.

Punch list: If 2011 has played out like a worst-case scenario for Bader, it’s only been a level better for Brilz. He has only fought once and it lasted all of 20 seconds when Matyushenko caught him with a combination.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Bader

Cofield: Bader

Last fight: First round submission loss to Tito Ortiz at UFC 132.

Punch list: Ten months ago, Bader was in consideration for the title picture at light heavyweight. Submission losses to current champion Jon Jones and the all-but-ostracized Ortiz have made this year one to forget for Bader, though.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Bader

Okamoto: Bader

Alex Soto

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 6-0-1
  • Out of: San Diego
  • Betting line: +325

Michael McDonald

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5’8’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 13-1
  • Out of: Modesto, Calif.
  • Betting line: -440

Bantamweight Bout

Spike Prelim

Last fight: Fought Seiji Akao to a draw at DEEP 54.

Punch list: Soto got into the UFC through one of the traditional routes — right time, right place. The promotion needed someone to fill in for Johnny Eduardo, who was originally supposed to face McDonald, and stumbled upon Soto, who trains dolphins for a living.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Soto

Cofield: McDonald

Last fight: Split decision victory over Chris Cariaso at UFC 130.

Punch list: This fight was a late addition to the Spike televised card, likely because of McDonald. He’s one of the 135-pound division’s most up-and-coming fighters and a Northern California native. He was formerly the Tachi Palace Fights bantamweight champion.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: McDonald

Okamoto: McDonald

Chris Weidman

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 6’2’’
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 6-0
  • Out of: Baldwin, N.Y.
  • Betting line: -340

Tom Lawlor

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6’0’’
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 3-2
  • MMA record 7-3
  • Out of: Providence, R.I.
  • Betting line: +270

Middleweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: First round submission victory against Jesse Bongfeldt at UFC 131.

Punch list: Could Weidman become the 185-pound UFC champion when Anderson Silva retires in a few years? Some think that highly of the prospect. The UFC is trying to ease him along, but a win here could potentially make a jump in competition a necessary.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Weidman

Cofield: Weidman

Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over Patrick Cote at UFC 121.

Punch list: It’s been a year since Lawlor stepped into the cage. Nagging injuries have kept him away and canceled two previously scheduled bouts in 2011. The wrestler sent Cote, a former top contender, out of the UFC with his last victory.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Weidman

Okamoto: Weidman

Rafael dos Anjos

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 15-5
  • Out of: Rio de Janeiro
  • Betting line: +160

Gleison Tibau

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 9-5
  • MMA record 33-7
  • Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
  • Betting line: -225

Lightweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: First round knockout victory over George Sotiropoulos at UFC 132.

Punch list: Dos Anjos is right next to Tibau in the pool of under-appreciated 155-pound fighters. His last two wins alone have come by stoppage against Sotiropoulos and Terry Etim, two highly touted competitors.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Tibau

Cofield: dos Anjos

Last fight: Submitted Rafaello Oliveira in the second round at UFC 130.

Punch list: He has to feel like one of the most underrated lightweight fighters in the UFC. Tibau has gone 4-1 in his last five fights, but can’t come close to being on a main card. Although the Brazilian has five losses in the octagon, they all came against elite competition.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Tibau

Okamoto: dos Anjos

Nick Pace

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5’6’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 6-2
  • Out of: Staten Island, N.Y.
  • Betting line: +230

Miguel Torres

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 38-4
  • Out of: East Chicago, Ind.
  • Betting line: -300

Bantamweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Ivan Menjivar at UFC 133.

Punch list: Speaking of questionable decisions, Las Vegas Sun scored Pace’s last fight in favor of him. But none of the judges agreed. It didn’t work out hurting Pace badly, however, as a bout against a former champion in Torres is an opportunity to rocket up the ranks with a victory.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Torres

Cofield: Torres

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Demetrious Johnson at UFC 130.

Punch list: Torres felt he beat Johnson his last time out. Although Johnson took Torres down repeatedly, the former WEC champion worked on submissions continually from the bottom. Torres is known as a submission specialist, but only has one win by submission in the last three-and-a-half years.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Torres

Okamoto: Torres

Seth Baczynski

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’3”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 14-6
  • Out of: Kawaii, Hawaii
  • Betting line: +130

Matt Brown

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’0’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 5-4
  • MMA record 14-10
  • Out of: Cincinnati
  • Betting line: -160

Welterweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Second round submission victory over Clay Harvison at UFC Fight Night 25.

Punch list: Having felt the pain of losing his job with the UFC once, Baczysnki is determined not to let it happen again. His renewed focus on fighting shined against Harvison as he routed “The Ultimate Fighter” 13 alum in New Orleans earlier this year.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Brown

Cofield: Brown

Last fight: Unanimous decision victory over John Howard at UFC on Versus 4.

Punch list: “The Immortal” snapped a three-fight losing streak and saved his position within the UFC by upsetting Howard. The former bodybuilder is known as brawler with a weakness in submission defense. He can’t rest easy knowing nine of Baczynski’s 14 wins have come by submission.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Brown

Okamoto: Brown

Danny Castillo

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 11-4
  • Out of: Sacramento, Calif.
  • Betting line: -300

Shamar Bailey

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 12-4
  • Out of: Indianapolis
  • Betting line: +230

Lightweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Jacob Volkmann at UFC on Versus 5.

Punch list: The Team Alpha Male member should be able to combat Bailey’s wrestling chops with his own. The fight will likely come down to other areas. Castillo is only 3-3 in his last six bouts and needs another win to improve his job security.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Bailey

Cofield: Castillo

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC Fight Night 25.

Punch list: Bailey took an absolute beating in a 15-minute fight against Dunham. The fact that he could endure so much punishment and still reach the end of the fight scored a lot of points in the minds of fans and the UFC brass.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Castillo

Okamoto: Bailey

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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