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UFC on FOX 1 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Odds indicate Velasquez vs. Dos Santos could go either way

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It’s rare to see a UFC title fight open as a pick’em.

But that’s how a handful of sports books posted this weekend’s UFC on FOX heavyweight championship bout between Cain Velasquez and Junior dos Santos in Anaheim, Calif.

The money has since come in on Velasquez, who is up to a -170 (risking $1.70 to win $1) favorite in most spots. Dos Santos comes back at +140.

Even with the movement, there are plenty of varying opinions on what will be the most watched UFC fight of all time. The Las Vegas Sun’s picks panel is no different as two prognosticators are on Velasquez with one picking Dos Santos.

Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (97-57), KSNV’s Kevin West (96-58), ESPN Radio/Cagewriter.com's Steve Cofield (93-61) and ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (79-43) list their picks below, where they are accompanied by breakdowns and betting odds for all 10 fights.

Junior dos Santos

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 6’3''
  • Weight: 239
  • UFC record 7-0
  • MMA record 13-1
  • Out of: Salvador, Brazil
  • Betting line: +140

Cain Velasquez

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’1''
  • Weight: 244
  • UFC record 7-0
  • MMA record 9-0
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: -170

Heavyweight Championship Bout

Main Event

Last fight: Unanimous decision victory against Shane Carwin at UFC 131.

Punch list: If you’re picking dos Santos, it’s because you think he’ll knock Velasquez out in the opening three rounds. That appears to be dos Santos’ best chance to win. He has superior boxing, which Velasquez called the best in the UFC, and powerful hands.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Velasquez

Cofield: dos Santos

Last fight: First round TKO win over Brock Lesnar at UFC 121.

Punch list: If you’re picking Velasquez, it’s because you think he’ll wear down dos Santos through the course of the fight. Velasquez has the strength of a heavyweight, but the stamina of a featherweight. His wrestling acumen and cardio could prove too much for dos Santos.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Velasquez

Okamoto: dos Santos

Ben Henderson

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 14-2
  • Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
  • Betting line: -260

Clay Guida

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’7''
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 9-5
  • MMA record 29-11
  • Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Betting line: +210

Lightweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Defeated Jim Miller by unanimous decision at UFC on Versus 5.

Punch list: Henderson was the WEC lightweight champion for most of last year before he lost the belt to Anthony Pettis. That’s almost a distance memory, though, after winning his first two UFC bouts. The way he destroyed Miller made Henderson one of the most talked about 155-pounders on the UFC roster.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Guida

Cofield: Henderson

Last fight: Beat Anthony Pettis by unanimous decision at “The Ultimate Fighter” 13 finale .

Punch list: Guida is no longer the journeyman, gatekeeper fans long thought he was. He’s a victory away from a title shot. Guida has spoke tirelessly about earning an opportunity at the lightweight belt since the beginning of the year. Beating Henderson would be his fifth victory in a row.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Guida

Okamoto: Henderson

Pablo Garza

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 11-1
  • Out of: Fargo, N.D.
  • Betting line: +240

Dustin Poirier

  • Age: 22
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 146
  • UFC record 2-0
  • MMA record 10-1
  • Out of: Lafayette, La.
  • Betting line: -300

Featherweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: First round submission victory over Yves Jabouin at UFC 129.

Punch list: Garza has garnered plenty of applause for finishing his last two fights with a flying triangle choke and a flying knee. But before that he was a struggling fighter who lost in the elimination round of “The Ultimate Fighter” 12 and dropped his only WEC fight. Has he turned the corner since dropping to 145 pounds? To be determined.

Staff picks:KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Poirier

Cofield: Poirier

Last fight: Unanimous decision win against Jason Young at UFC 131.

Punch list: Poirier routed both Young and Josh Grispi to great fanfare earlier this year. But both of those fighters are 0-2 in the UFC. Poirier has the ability to reach the top of the featherweight division, but is still green as a new, improving fighter. It was only a year-and-a-half ago when he dropped a decision to Danny Castillo.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Garza

Okamoto: Poirier

Ricardo Lamas

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’8''
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 10-2
  • Out of: Elmhurst, Ill.
  • Betting line: -150

Cub Swanson

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’7''
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 15-4
  • Out of: Palm Springs, Calif.
  • Betting line: +120

Featherweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: First round TKO victory over Matt Grice at UFC on Versus 4.

Punch list: Lamas is a former college wrestler who has worked hard to develop his ground game and earn a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. But he doesn’t have any submission victories since his first two professional fights in 2008.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Swanson

Cofield: Lamas

Last fight: Split decision victory over Mackens Semerzier at WEC 52.

Punch list: The longtime WEC veteran alternated wins and losses in the last two years of the promotion’s existence. His UFC debut was long-delayed after he dealt with a string of injuries.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Lamas

Okamoto: Swanson

Clay Harvison

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 9-3
  • Out of: Orem, Utah
  • Betting line: +205

DaMarques Johnson

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 3-3
  • MMA record 15-9
  • Out of: Salt Lake City
  • Betting line: -255

Welterweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Second round submission loss to Seth Baczynski at UFC Fight Night 25.

Punch list: Harvison has joined “The Ultimate Fighter” 13 cast mate Ramsey Nijem to train after the show with mixed results. He looked impressive in winning a slug fest split decision over Justin Edwards, but followed it with a one-sided loss against one-time UFC castoff Baczynski.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Johnson

Cofield: Johnson

Last fight: Second round submission defeat to Amir Sadollah at UFC Fight Night 24.

Punch list: Johnson is a good litmus test for fighters like Harvison. “The Ultimate Fighter” 9 veteran can beat enough fighters to stay in the UFC, but hasn’t shown an ability to win against anyone above average to move his way up in the division.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Johnson

Okamoto: Johnson

Darren Uyenoyama

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’6’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 6-3
  • Out of: San Francisco
  • Betting line: +290

Norifumi Yamamoto

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’4’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 18-4
  • Out of: Tokyo
  • Betting line: -360

Bantamweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Second round TKO over Shuichiro Katsumura at Shooto: The Way Of Shooto 5.

Punch list: It’s hard not to wonder if Uyenoyama is no more than fodder the UFC is feeding for Yamamoto to get back on track. Yamamoto is viable in the UFC because of his extreme popularity in Japan, where Uyenoyama has also spent the majority of his career.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Yamamoto

Cofield: Yamamoto

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Demetrious Johnson at UFC 126.

Punch list: “Kid” Yamamoto used to be known as one of the best fighters in the world. Those days are probably behind him, as he’s gone 1-3 in his last four. He’ll need a win here to prove he belongs in an elite American organization.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Yamamoto

Okamoto: Yamamoto

Robert Peralta

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’8’’
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 15-3
  • Out of: San Diego
  • Betting line: -120

Mackens Semerzier

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’9’’
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 6-3
  • Out of: Virginia Beach, Va.
  • Betting line: -110

Featherweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Mike Lullo at UFC Fight Night 25.

Punch list: The prospect, who has won eight in a row, drops to 145 pounds for the first time here. He looked more than comfortable at lightweight, however, when he picked Lullo apart despite taking the fight on short notice.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Peralta

Cofield: Semerzier

Last fight: First round submission victory over Alex Caceres at UFC Fight Night 24.

Punch list: Before coming over to the UFC, Semerzier had lost three straight in the WEC. He has a wrestling background that helps his dictate where fights will go, but is also coming off of an injury.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Peralta

Okamoto: Semerzier

Cole Escovedo

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’7’’
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-2
  • MMA record 17-8
  • Out of: Fresno, Calif.
  • Betting line: -240

Alex Caceres

  • Age: 23
  • Height: 5’10’’
  • Weight: 146
  • UFC record 0-2
  • MMA record 5-4
  • Out of: Miami
  • Betting line: +190

Bantamweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Second round TKO loss to Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 135.

Punch list: Escovedo has done some positive things and put on entertaining fights in two appearances this year. But it’s ultimately about winning in the UFC, which he hasn’t done. “The Apache Kid” desperately needs to change that here to stay with the organization.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Escovedo

Cofield: Escovedo

Last fight: Second round loss to Jim Hettes are UFC on Versus 5.

Punch list: Every season of “The Ultimate Fighter” needs a class clown type of persona to emerge. Caceres was season 12’s version. But his personality and likability can only take him so far. He needs to break his snide and get a win to secure his spot in the UFC.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Escovedo

Okamoto: Caceres

Paul Bradley

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 185
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 18-3
  • Out of: Minneapolis
  • Betting line: +225

Mike Pierce

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’8’’
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 4-2
  • MMA record 12-4
  • Out of: Portland, Ore.
  • Betting line: -285

Welterweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous decision loss against Rafael Natal at UFC 133.

Punch list: Bradley didn’t have enough time for a full training camp going into his UFC debut, so he gets another chance here. “The Gentleman” was an All-American wrestler at the University of Iowa and appeared on “The Ultimate Fighter” 7.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Bradley

Cofield: Pierce

Last fight: Split decision loss to Johny Hendricks to UFC 133.

Punch list: The close friend of Chael Sonnen squandered a golden opportunity to move into the upper tier of the 170-pound division his last time out. He receives another generous chance to make up for it here against an opponent he already defeated two-and-a-half years ago.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Pierce

Okamoto: Pierce

Matt Lucas

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 6’1’’
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 14-2
  • Out of: Mesa, Ariz.
  • Betting line: +130

Aaron Rosa

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6’4’’
  • Weight: 261
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 16-4
  • Out of: San Antonio
  • Betting line: -160

Light Heavyweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: First round knockout victory against Shawn Frye at Rage In The Cage 152.

Punch list: If for no other reason, Lucas is deserving at a shot in the UFC for this reason — he’s finished four of his last five fights with first round knockouts. The striker hasn’t lost since early 2009.

Staff picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Lucas

Cofield: Rosa

Last fight: Third round TKO loss to Joey Beltran at UFC 131.

Punch list: For Rosa, it will all come down to how he handles the weight cut. Rosa has always competed as a heavyweight — and not a small one, as evidenced by weighing in at 261 pounds in his UFC debut.

Staff picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Rosa

Okamoto: Lucas

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