Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

jon ralston:

A ticket of Heller-Angle is favored, but …

Dean Heller is not God, but Sharron Angle is manna from heaven.

This is the distillation of the Democratic message in the wake of last week’s events that saw Heller announce for the U.S. Senate and Angle declare for his congressional seat. Both were immediately consecrated as front-runners, with the Democrats trying to debunk the Heller juggernaut meme while (quietly at least) promoting Angle’s second coming as well, the Second Coming.

There is less here than meets the eye. But before I deconstruct, I think this leads to the conclusion that Heller and Angle are favorites, no matter what current polling does or does not say. Here’s why:

Heller’s near-flawless rollout, with choreographed endorsements from the state’s top two Republicans (Gov. Brian Sandoval and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki) and a ready-made fundraiser with a Who’s Who host committee, signals 2012 is not 2010. The Democrats will not have the luxury of running a U.S. Senate race against a deeply flawed candidate with, until it was too late, a campaign team that couldn’t elect Justin Bieber high school class president. Heller has a seasoned campaign team with many Nevada victories, and if Sandoval, who could be a rainmaker, gets involved in reshaping the party, it’s a whole different dynamic.

The Democrats also have two problems, which could metastasize.

First, there’s the issue of not having a candidate. After the Waiting for (Rep. Shelley) Berkley game concludes, the party might have a contender who can raise money and be competitive but who might have trouble outside of Clark County. Or the Democrats will rely on one of three constitutional officers, each of whom could defeat Heller but each of whom would be a slight underdog.

Second, the Democratic Establishment feels about attorney Byron Georgiou, already in the race, the way the GOP powers that be feel about Angle — they want him out of the contest. I have seen many a rich guy get into a race, present a blank check and then fill it in with a much smaller number than his consultants expected. But if Georgiou, already attacking Berkley and the others, stays in and has enough zeros on that check, the Democrats will have a John Chachas who might actually do some electoral damage.

That said, Heller is hardly John Ensign, pre-June 16, 2009. He almost lost to Angle in 2006 (Dawn Gibbons was also in the contest) and he did not exactly crush ex-Regent Jill Derby in the general elections of 2008 and 2010. He also is vulnerable in Washoe County, where Derby beat him and barely lost to him, respectively, in those elections. Not exactly Godlike.

If the Democrats can harness their machine in a presidential year, and if their nominee can win Washoe County and decisively beat Heller in Clark, where he is not well known, the deity becomes the defeated. And it should not be forgotten that Hispanics, who were crucial in Obama’s 2008 win here and in Reid’s victory last cycle, could destroy Heller. His record on immigration, as he sprinted to the right after almost losing to Angle, has included some absolutism on illegal immigration that could be problematic.

As eager as they are to bring Heller to Earth, the Democrats are equally zealous about promoting Angle (déjà vu, 2010) as their ticket to winning a district they have never held since it was created 30 years ago.

Of course the district will be redrawn, but most insiders believe the partisan makeup will still heavily favor Republicans. But if Derby could come reasonably close to Heller, is it a logical assumption that if Angle comes out of a crowded primary that she could lose the seat? Indeed.

Angle has upside-down — or nearly upside-down — numbers with Republicans after her 2010 debacle. But she still has core support and could win a primary against several candidates.

This will be the first test for the new governor and the embryonic GOP machine. At some point, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will call Georgiou and the conversation will begin thusly: “If you stay in this race, I am going to make your life a living …”

For some time, the Republicans have not had anyone willing to make that kind of call. Can Sandoval clear the field for Krolicki with not-so-subtle entreaties to the likes of Mark Amodei, the state party chairman; Greg Brower, the preternaturally ambitious state senator; and Kirk Lippold, the former USS Cole commander?

If not, and if several contenders join Angle, she is a clear favorite and the Democrats will smell blood, just as Reid did last June.

If Angle wins that primary, I will enjoy watching Heller try to avoid her for five months. That will be worth the price of 2012 admission.

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