National eyes will be on Nevada U.S. House race

By Anjeanette Damon

Sunday, July 3, 2011 | 2:01 a.m.

Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District will be the testing ground, as Democrats and Republicans begin plotting strategies to claim the majority in the House and Senate next year.

The September special election to fill the seat vacated by Dean Heller’s promotion to the U.S. Senate is seen as an early indicator of which party has the advantage heading into the 2012 election, and an opportunity for an early jump in a key swing state.

As a result, the special election in the heavily Republican district will draw national attention this summer.

“This is the kind of district Democrats need to win to prove they can take back the House,” said David Wasserman, senior editor for the Cook Political Report. “It’s not an essential district to their crusade, but this is a good test case for the purposes of telling whether New York 26 was a fluke or whether something is really going on.”

In May, Democrat Kathy Hochul seized a victory in New York’s heavily Republican 26th Congressional District. Despite the fact two well-funded conservative candidates split the GOP vote, Democrats hailed the win as an indication of the party’s strength heading into 2012. Their case would be bolstered if state Treasurer Kate Marshall becomes the first Democrat to win Nevada’s 2nd District.

Nevada’s role as a bellwether depends significantly on a state Supreme Court ruling due this week on how the election will be conducted. Secretary of State Ross Miller has set the rules for an open ballot election, meaning a free-for-all race among more than two dozen Republicans, Democrats and independents who have filed to run.

But the Nevada Republican Party has sued, arguing political parties have the right to choose their nominees for the ballot.

Marshall won the nearly unanimous nomination of the Nevada Democratic Party’s central committee. Republicans chose their former state chairman, Mark Amodei.

Most analysts agree Marshall has a stronger chance in a free-for-all scenario. Retired Navy Cmdr. Kirk Lippold has vowed to continue running as a Republican, if the court allows it, and has the resources to put up a strong fight.

But if Marshall wins in that scenario, the national significance of her win would be diminished.

But the special election will draw national attention for other reasons.

The national parties will use the race as a testing ground for messages they’ll employ in 2012. In New York, Democrats seemingly found a silver bullet in Medicare, hammering the Republican candidate with U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposal to dramatically change the way Medicare is funded.

Messaging on issues from the debt ceiling, to China’s emerging power, to gas prices, to health care are expected to be tested during the special election by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. The GOP committee has launched Web ads against Marshall.

“I expect it will be more of a proxy fight between the DCCC and the NRCC,” one Democratic source said.

Both national committees are expected to devote significant resources to the fight here. New York’s 26th District and its 9th District, in which a special election will also be held Sept. 13 to replace disgraced Rep. Anthony Weiner, likely won’t exist after redistricting. Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District will. That gives both committees added incentive to play strongly.

Redistricting will change the character of the district, which is expected to remain a strong Republican seat.

But under most redistricting scenarios — another matter that is before the courts — the district will lose 70,000 rural voters. That gives Washoe County, where Democratic candidates have outperformed Republicans in several major races in the past two cycles, more influence.

It’s a dynamic that Amodei has been concerned about as he reaches out for national support organizing his campaign.

“It’s not going to be enough to just say, ‘hey, this is a Republican district and wave the flag as the Republican candidate,’ ” he said.

And that’s where the real importance of the special election will come into play — as an organizing head start for the presidential race in one of the most important swing counties in the country.

“Washoe County is an important county, not just in Nevada, but it’s an important county nationally,” Republican strategist Ryan Erwin said. “Both parties see an opportunity to organize early in ways that will not only impact this race but have a lasting impact on the Senate race and presidential race.”