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“The era of crazy price appreciation is over. I think the whole attitude of households in the United States has changed,” says Nasser Daneshvary.
Friday, Feb. 11, 2011 | 2 a.m.
Sun Topics
Nasser Daneshvary took a roundabout route to Las Vegas real estate expertise.
He left Iran more than 35 years ago to pursue a degree in economics in the United States with the intention of returning to teach there.
He had the financial support of the Iranian government, but lost it after the overthrow of the shah and formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. Daneshvary stayed in the United States rather than face an uncertain future in his country.
Upon completing his studies at the University of Tennessee, Daneshvary taught economics in Vermont and Missouri. Then Keith Schwer, leader of the economics department at the time, invited Daneshvary to take a position at UNLV. Daneshvary soon became chairman of UNLV’s economics department and later associate dean of the College of Business.
He returned to teaching in 2005 and started conducting housing research two years later. He was named director of the Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies last summer.
You had a study on the toxic effects of foreclosures on neighborhoods. Will you explain it?
We know foreclosed homes sell for a discount, but what do they do to the neighborhood? We found out that the first few foreclosures have a big effect, and then five and six and seven don’t matter, and then eight, nine and 10 matter a lot. The negative effect on your value keeps declining until it reaches around 40 homes within a half a mile from you. You have lost 33 percent. More than that doesn’t matter.
Are you worried about foreclosures continuing?
Absolutely. More foreclosures mean home prices continue to drop. I have friends who bought a home for $700,000, and now it’s worth $300,000. They can afford it because they have jobs, but they keep looking at me and asking if I think they’re crazy if they pay on it for the next 20 years while the value is $300,000. If they don’t, that’s a strategic default. People are starting to do that. They see neighbors who gave up their homes through foreclosure and how they got rid of their debt and are rebuilding their lives. They are saying: “Why shouldn’t I do that?” That’s why I call it the toxic effect of foreclosures on neighbors.
Are banks turning to short sales?
There was good news until the end of November because short sales were increasing and foreclosure sales were declining. But December’s numbers showed foreclosures were higher. I think 2011 will be the year that short sales surpass foreclosures, but that’s optimistic. Everyone is talking about this shadow inventory of foreclosed homes with banks and lenders.
Where are home prices going?
I think the price has bottomed out. Maybe we lose 5 percent or we gain 5 percent next year. The decline is possible because of this shadow inventory of foreclosures. We will not see price recovery for at least three years. Even then, appreciation will happen in the 2 or 3 percent range.
Where will prices be in the next five to 10 years?
The era of crazy price appreciation is over. I think the whole attitude of households in the United States has changed. More and more people are accepting that having a house is not a quick investment. Having a house used to be called a long-term investment but even that’s gone. Having a house is a long-term savings.
What lessons should we learn from this?
We should be patient and not look for quick turnarounds on our returns — both investors and individuals. There were regular people buying three to four homes hoping in six months they could flip them for 20 percent profit. There’s nothing wrong with that if it’s sustainable, but it’s not sustainable.
What was he saying in 2005? Did the experts at the Lied Institute predict the crash?
A 2005 Round table Panel at Lied said the problem was "affordable housing" They said the "crisis for 2005-2009" was that houses were going to be beyond the range of the average income earner. They said one of the problems was that the BLM was not releasing enough land. I didn't see one person say: "Maybe the market will slow down or stabilize," let alone crash. They also complained about "construction defect litigation."
So much for the Institute and the experts. Report:
http://www.leg.state.nv.us/73rd/Interim/...
Good work @mred.
Heck, the first photo in the report does not even look like an arial shot of a Las Vegas neighborhood.
Looks like the "experts" are just folks that tell us what we already think at the time we are thinking it.
Now that's the kind of leadership we need.
He is saying nothing. The market will stabilize and they go up in value with inflation......
What a prediction.
I would have more respect if he did some analysis, or said "markets always over correct". They were over bought and now (or maybe next year or maybe 6 months ago) they have entered over sold territory. When an asset is selling for 75% of replacement cost, it is just a matter of time before the assets adjusts to 100% (a gain of 33% by the way) of replacement cost. Now that time would be the amount of time it takes to absorb the supply on the market. Where is the analysis explaining different scenarios of that?
And, as in other markets, when this swing happens it usually goes further than that because during the oversupply phase everyone stops investing in new capacity, so after equilibrium is reached (you have a short lived scarcity premium again.
Or how about talking about how china and eastern europe and india are becoming developed nations and are probably pushing the cost of commodities up to levels that will FORCE inflation in the USA?
What happens when we get inflation????
Doesn't the cost of building new houses GO UP?
Hmmmm. Would that make the value of existing houses go up?
Close this community college masquerading as a four year university down.
I see nothing either here nor on the Lied Institute's website about the Achilles heel of all these foreclosures, the increasingly disturbing fact they are wrongful and unlawful. The foreclosers mostly just push paper at the homeowners without even knowing who owns the loans. How is that not fraud??
This article, like most by the "experts," was superficial and disappointing. I expected so much more from Daneshvary and his Institute.
For enlightenment I recommend all, including Dean Daneshvary, start @ "Where's the Note? Who's the Holder?" @ http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/01/busine...
Laughable opinions here. this expert has blinders on.
There was no "crash" as much as there was an unreasonable run-up. Decades of 3-4% local appreciation turn into 50% appreciation? Please. Anyone expecting sustaining anything greater than 3-4% appreciation didn't do their homework.
If you bought in 2002 or earlier, use 3% annual appreciation as your guide; I'm guessing you will be back to the "right" value in 2012 or 2013.
I think we are back to 1998-2000 prices.
That round table was sponsored in part by Fannie. Look at all those people and all the groups they represented. Did one group or person say: "affordability is not the issue, the upcoming drop in home prices is?" or "The run-up in prices and an overheated market are the problem for the future?"
Unreasonable inflation and greed driven snowball in prices and then a price adjustment.
The home mortgage deduction should be eliminated. An average family income, with an average home price, in most markets the standard deduction is adequate. The mortgage interest deduction helps for higher income people in higher cost of living areas.
"The mortgage interest deduction helps for higher income people in higher cost of living areas."
Translation? It is incentive for people to work harder, take risks, and better themselves and their living conditions. Works for me.
Economists = Deadwood in the workplace
A modern cult of Keynesians and Old Schoolers that produce nothing but piles of useless data and equally unproductive results.
The government "stimulus packages" were Johnny MK inspired.
Bailed out even more useless deadwood than should have been tossed into the fireplace.
Johnny, the Brit, Milton and their whole stack of deadbeat associates should have been working the fields or factory assembly lines.
But in the defense of their high priests and taboo monetary / fiscal rituals...
...at least they don't sacrifice animals...just pure social / intellectual education & evolution...and valuable time.
Thanks Mr. Expert. I love these "experts," that tell us what anyone with any common sense could deduce. I can't believe there is even a field and demand created for these nitwits dressed up in pseudo industry jargon intelligence and self created corporate euphamisms of the day. They are as useful as realtors, PR, sales, and marketing drones. But they do have a "dynamic," personality don't they? They are the ones often "driving the bus." And "This is where the rubber meets the road."
But, they are all "dumb as a bag of rocks."
Now that's a euphamism that counts!
to be fair, this guy is WAY more credible than the hacks (smith, murphy, bottfeld) that buck usually cites. well done, buck. yeah, cite. look it up, geniuses.
Not sure what this guy has said in the past, but I agree with just about everything he says in the interview.
What's the psychological impact on a homeowner who's paying a $500k mortgage, and then someone buys the home next door for $200k?
First there is a period of what psychologists call cognitive dissonance. In this case, it's the conflict between the moral drive to be a good citizen and continue paying the mortgage, and the inescapable feeling that "I must be a sap!"
This cognitive dissonance must be resolved within the person or they will suffer continuously. In my opinion, because the value lost is so large, most reasonable people will say the heck with the morality of being a good citizen, I'm not going to eat that much money. They will then seek out some financial solution that reduces their loss, and relieves their feeling of cognitive dissonance.
Result: More foreclosures and short sales to come.
lol.
there's mred up there as the first comment.
what a sad, bitter loner he must be.