NFL betting season starts in Las Vegas sports books with preseason slate

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011 | 2:05 a.m.

Most football bettors who wager on the NFL preseason approach it like a desperate traveler who stops at a convenience store along a desolate stretch of highway.

It may have neither the exact product one is craving nor the best prices, but it’s the only option in sight. The preseason is straight ahead, as all 32 teams will trot onto the field for their openers in the next five days.

“I expect the handle to be slightly more than the last couple of years on the preseason,” said Mike Colbert, Cantor Gaming sports book director. “I think people are a little more excited about this year after the lockout and the potential there wasn’t going to be any football.”

More ambitious handicappers see the preseason as ripe with moneymaking opportunities. They would say those who keep their distance because of the belief the games are too unpredictable aren’t trying hard enough.

“It can be argued that these players aren’t playing the whole game and you’re not handicapping the real team,” said professional sports handicapper Marc Lawrence. “Well, you’re not. But we’re handicapping what’s in front of us and we’ve learned we can work with these situations.”

In the newest edition of Lawrence’s betting publication, Playbook, he presents several areas where he believes bettors can exploit the NFL preseason. Two of the most important factors to keep in mind, according to Lawrence, are teams’ quarterback depth and coaching philosophy.

He said it was more important to know who would be a team’s signal caller in the fourth quarter than the first quarter. Teams that have a veteran with starting experience below second string on the depth chart are usually a profitable play.

The examples Lawrence used for this year were the Denver Broncos with Brady Quinn, the New York Giants with David Carr, the Oakland Raiders with Trent Edwards and the Pittsburgh Steelers with the combination of Dennis Dixon and Charlie Batch.

“Their experience and time bodes well,” Lawrence said. “You pit David Carr against an opponent’s third- or fourth-team defense and he should do well.”

The Giants make their debut on the road against the Carolina Panthers on Saturday as 2-point underdogs. Colbert said he was surprised to find the Panthers attracting lopsided action at Cantor books in the game, as they are dealing with a number of injuries.

He was less surprised by the support pouring in on the St. Louis Rams as 7-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis is traditionally one of the worst preseason franchises in the NFL and opts to save its stars for the regular season.

“These numbers move once people go out and do their research and find out how long the starters are playing,” Colbert said. “It’s not a surprise to see a game go from minus-3 on one side to minus-3 on the other.”

The biggest move for a Week 1 game this year has come in a Friday matchup when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has switched from a 3-point favorite to a 3-point underdog in some spots.

Colbert said Tampa Bay had attracted the most action of any team so far at Cantor books. Lawrence supports the shift.

He mentioned the Chiefs’ Todd Haley as one of the least successful preseason coaches. Lawrence reported Haley was 0-8 against the exhibition spread after two seasons in Kansas City.

Other coaches who couldn’t appear to care less whether their team wins or loses before the regular season are Philadelphia’s Andy Reid, Buffalo’s Chan Gailey and Arizona’s Ken Whisenhunt.

“These aren’t horrible coaches,” Lawrence explained. “It’s just that they have an approach to the preseason that’s handicap-able. They are on the play-against list.”

History shows coaches who value the preseason include Baltimore’s John Harbaugh, Miami’s Tony Sparano and Detroit’s Jim Schwartz. The unofficial leader of the group is Jack Del Rio from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who carries a 20-12 preseason record against the spread into Thursday night’s game at New England. Jacksonville is a 4-point underdog in the contest.

Because of so much uncertainty, sports books will post stricter limits for this weekend’s games. Bettors can only wager $2,000 at Cantor until game day, when the maximum play increases to $10,000.

“It’s not the same game and it takes a lot more information gathering,” Lawrence said. “But I think you can exploit weakness with strength. There are handicapping tools you can use.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.