Poll shows Donald Trump in lead among possible GOP candidates

By Karoun Demirjian

Friday, April 15, 2011 | 10:21 a.m.

Well, I’m eating my hat.

If you tuned into KNPR's "State of Nevada" about a week ago, you would have heard me speculating on the air that the GOP probably wouldn’t be taking the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, billionaire real estate magnate and reality TV nightmare boss extraordinaire, too seriously. To cover myself, I will say I was on with former Nevada Gov. Bob List, and he didn’t leap to vehemently disagree.

But it looks like the party may taking a closer look at Trump in the very near future, because according to a recent poll, he is trouncing every other presumed Republican candidate in a head-to-head matchup. By a lot.

PPP released a poll today that shows in a hypothetical national runoff, Trump would win 26 percent of the vote, trouncing runners-up Mike Huckabee, who would garner 17 percent, Mitt Romney, who would pull in 15 percent, Newt Gingrich, who got 11 percent, and Sarah Palin, who brought in 8 percent, and Ron Paul’s 5 percent. Minnesotans Michele Bachmann and Tim Pawlenty, who are expected to be influential candidates in the 2012 if not also favorites, took only 4 percent in the PPP poll.

That’s certainly turning the field on its head, and presenting an even more dynamic field than was expected to march into Nevada for early caucuses early next year.

Romney’s had the biggest base of support in the Silver State. But Trump’s got a base of a sort, too, especially in Las Vegas, the site of one of his many International Hotels and Towers, complete with casino, on the Strip.

Trump isn’t exactly what you’d call a mainstream political candidate -- but then again, the GOP, especially in Nevada, hasn’t always gone for what’s mainstream the last few years.

In 2008, the party nominated Sen. John McCain, the surprise victor from a field of social conservatives who had pilloried him for his immigrant-friendly positions. He then pulled in Sarah Palin, the Alaskan ex-governor whose political and personal quirks have led many conservative scions like Bill Kristol to dismiss her relevance; though she’s simultaneously piqued the attentions of a reality TV audience (so Trump wouldn’t be the first).

On the local front, it wasn’t too long ago that Sharron Angle, buoyed by a groundswell of Tea Party support, emerged from relative obscurity to give Democratic Sen. Harry Reid a run for his political life. (Interestingly enough, Trump has donated to Reid’s campaign efforts in the past.)

Trump though, is a bit more incendiary, and a bit less polished -- which is all the more apparent because he loves the limelight. But if the PPP poll is any indication, it seems to be working for him.

Trump’s a businessman and a marketer, and so far, he’s built his startup presidential campaign on issues that have guaranteed him at least a modicum of attention: for example, the birther movement. Trump told the AP Obama should be compelled to present his birth certificate to the country. He’s already presented a “certification of live birth” from Hawaii.

He would come under some pretty serious scrutiny himself if he takes the momentum of these polls to make an official declarations. Trump’s personal financial disclosure statement -- due within 30 days of registering a campaign with the Federal Election Commission -- would be a lengthy and potentially contorted mess of paperwork.

Liberal bloggers are already calling the poll into question, complaining that the set-up to the question about Trump’s candidacy almost invited respondents to tick off the Donald. The question was as follows:

Here's one last scenario: what if Donald Trump ran for President and the candidates were Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, and Donald Trump. Who would you vote for?

Still, the guy beat everyone out by nine points. He’s not yet officially made any sort of declaration; but if Trump anteing up a campaign run, this might be just the sort of mainstream boost that gets people taking the idea of a President Trump more seriously.