VCU could spoil Final Four weekend for Las Vegas sports books

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, April 1, 2011 | 9:25 p.m.

It’s usually assumed that Las Vegas sports books root against favorites in the biggest sporting events of the year.

The opposite is true of this weekend’s Final Four in Houston as a handful of books around town are looking to avoid ultimate underdog Virginia Commonwealth winning the national championship. As a No. 11 seed, the Rams had high enough future odds throughout the NCAA Tournament to entice some bettors to take a shot with them.

“VCU is our worst case scenario,” Las Vegas Hilton Superbook director Jay Kornegay said. “That’s the team we’ll be rooting against.”

Although the Hilton has received major publicity from taking a $10 bet on VCU to win the national championship at 5,000-to-1 earlier this year, it’s the combination with other wagers that concerns Kornegay. A higher volume of bets on VCU started to come in as the team began to shine in the tournament.

The Rams started as a part of the "field" at 200-to-1 odds to become champions. After beating Southern California and Georgetown by a combined 31 points, Kornegay shifted VCU’s price to win the tournament to 100-to-1.

“That’s when most of our exposure came in,” Kornegay said.

More action flooded in on the Rams at 60-to-1 after they crushed Purdue by 18 points to make it to the Sweet 16. But that wasn’t the case everywhere.

MGM Resorts International sports book director Jay Rood said VCU leaving Reliant Stadium with the trophy wouldn’t hurt the company’s bottom line. Despite 175-to-1 odds to start the tournament at MGM, not many bettors sided with the Rams.

“Actually, Connecticut is the worst for us if they win,” Rood said. “Once they went on their tear, there was a little value on 30-to-1 out there. A lot of people took them.”

UConn has won nine straight games headed into its Final Four showdown with Kentucky. The Huskies are 2-point underdogs almost everywhere in Las Vegas against the Wildcats, who have a 10-game winning streak of their own.

Don’t expect that number to change much before Saturday’s 5:49 p.m. tipoff.

“We are dead even on that game at two,” Rood said. “I would envision us probably sitting in this spot tomorrow barring any major shift. There’s no way I see that happening.”

More one-sided money has come in on the other game where Butler is a 2.5-point favorite over VCU. Spread bettors haven’t believed in VCU for most of the tournament, a trend that's continuing against Butler.

Rood said MGM had double the amount of money on Butler than on VCU, which is posted at +125 (risking $1 to win $1.25) on the moneyline.

“People are betting VCU’s games like a Super Bowl,” Rood said. “Everyone is betting the number with the favorite and the money line with VCU. But it’s been nothing detrimental to be honest with you. I think we’ve won on every one of their games. They’ve been good for us.”

There aren’t many other oddsmakers in town who will be sharing positive thoughts about VCU if it pulls off two wins this weekend. VCU would become the highest seed and biggest Vegas underdog to ever win the NCAA Tournament.

The Rams have already made history in Vegas by keeping a 5,000-to-1 ticket alive this long.

“I’ve never seen anything like it,” Kornegay said. “We always adjust our odds and it never comes up for discussion, because it’s never come close. I think the highest we’ve ever paid is 500-to-1.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.