The increasing possibility of two Reids winning

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, Sept. 26, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Like a nightmare no Republican should have to endure, like one of those frightening visions of a future where the devil and his son rule the world (or at least Nevada), the word came Friday: Two Reids could actually win in November.

Sen. Harry Reid (again, still) and Gov. Rory Reid! Say it ain’t so. Could it really happen?

Maybe. And the possibility was raised by … a nationally respected Republican pollster. Oh, the horror! Avert your eyes, GOP faithful. This is a future no one thought was possible, and yet it may be more so than anyone (yes, your humble pundit included) thought.

The survey is the third in a series conducted by Public Opinion Strategies for the Retail Association of Nevada, a conservative group trying to gauge public sentiment. Public Opinion Strategies’ Glen Bolger is one of the country’s better pollsters and has produced reliable results in Nevada for many years.

Here’s what he found:

In the Senate race, Reid the Elder is ahead outside of the margin of error (4.4 percent) for the first time in many months — 45-40 over Sharron Angle in a statewide survey of 500 likely voters taken last week. Of the minor party candidates, only Tea Party of Nevada nominee Scott Ashjian registered (at 1 percent), 7 percent chose none of these candidates and 7 percent were undecided or refused to answer.

In the governor’s race, Brian Sandoval is ahead of Reid the Younger 45-39, with minor candidates getting 3 percent and none of the above getting a surprisingly high 9 percent, and 5 percent undecided or refused to answer.

These numbers do not jibe with other public polls, but many of those surveys have samples with strange demographics. Bolger hewed to the voter registration numbers — 42 percent to 37 percent favoring Democrats over Republicans. That would seem to favor the Democratic Reids because many are assuming a GOP turnout edge, which could mitigate that registration deficit. But Democrats also have a formidable and well-funded turnout machine to try to bridge the enthusiasm gap, so Bolger’s prediction is as good or better than any others.

So what does this mean, assuming the sample is good (and I assume it is for two reasons — it jibes with other data I know about and Bolger’s credentials are impeccable)?

Let’s take the Senate race first.

Reid’s campaign against Angle, mostly using her own words to portray her as “extreme” and “dangerous,” surely has had an impact. Bolger found she and Reid essentially are viewed equally negatively and by about half the electorate. That makes turnout even more important, and the edge there has to go to Democrats. Could he really have a 5 percentage point lead over Angle despite the economy and his record? Sure. Indeed, it makes sense because his campaign has been so ruthlessly and relentlessly efficient in knocking down Angle and never letting the foot off her throat. (Giving the results even more validity here: Bolger's partner at the firm, Gene Ulm, is polling for Angle. Doubt he is producing much different numbers.)

But Angle still has one obvious advantage in the race, as the poll illuminates: Nevadans are most concerned about the economy — 69 percent said it is the biggest issue — and the more who blame Reid for the unemployment rate, the worse it gets for him.

It’s also true that any incumbent with a 51 percent negative rating is far from out of danger, even against a flawed foe. Note this: Among likely voters, those with the highest intensity favor Angle 46-42, according to the poll’s cross tabs. The higher the turnout in this race, the better chance Reid wins. If it’s low, he may not survive.

In the governor’s race, I have heard about and seen other polling that shows Reid the Younger closing on Sandoval, despite many public surveys showing the Republican in firm control of the contest. So could Reid really be this close, just outside the margin of error?

It’s not impossible. He has been on TV eviscerating Sandoval as a tool of banking lobbyists, a misleading attack but one powerfully made. And Reid the Younger appears to be consolidating the Democratic base in a state in which his party has a registration edge.

Sandoval still has to be considered the favorite in what should be a Republican year. And I still have to believe that while many voters will hold their noses and vote for one Reid at the top of the ballot, few of those will tick down and choose a second one.

But what if it were to happen? Sen. Reid and Gov. Reid.

Unthinkable for months, the Public Opinion Strategies poll indicates while not likely, it is possible. And that may be enough to cause some Republicans to start having sleepless nights and wondering if the apocalypse is nigh.