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Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2010 | 2 a.m.
The other day I saw a U-Haul turtling down U.S. 95, toward Arizona, and not for the first time asked myself:
Is Las Vegas really in decline?
Of course, some have complained it has been in decline for years, because it couldn’t stitch together a decent social safety net, couldn’t sustain a museum, couldn’t even bring Ikea to the people. All signs of civic enfeeblement, I agree, and not only because I’m dying for an Ikea floor lamp.
But I mean “decline” in a more literal, arguably more urgent sense. Census and anecdotal evidence (for example, the number of outward-bound U-Hauls) indicates more people leave Vegas than arrive these days, and surely more would take off if they could unload their homes. By some estimates, as many as 60,000 houses sit vacant in the valley — ponder the monstrous nature of that number for a moment: an emptiness roughly equal to the population of Carson City.
In a city long powered, in part, by uninhibited growth, the notion of serious decline can be hard to wrap our heads around. But it is serious. Indeed, I suppose the real question is, is this a temporary reversal or a long-term — gulp, permanent — condition? Over the years we’ve cultivated a lot of faith in the city’s economy, but …
“I am concerned that the city is falling apart fast, quicker than it built up,” a source in Las Vegas city government told me. Hmm. Sounds long-term to me.
“The story of Las Vegas has been — Las Vegas is always growing,” says author and urban planning expert Justin Hollander, “and if you could manage that growth, you could improve the quality of life.” For his book “Sunburnt Cities,” due out in November, he studied several Sunbelt cities (more Phoenix and Fresno than Vegas) to see what happens when that philosophy peters out.
But I didn’t call Hollander for a belt of crummy news; when I want to feel bad, I can just calculate my home’s value, using the same math that determines the speed of falling asteroids.
No, I called him because he favors an idea called “smart decline” or “smart shrinkage,” which boils down to a version of the old lemons/lemonade wisdom: If your city stops growing, can you do something positive with that? Can you manage shrinkage the way you once hoped to manage growth?
Seems like an idea worth pondering as Las Vegas fishtails through the curve between our growth-driven past and whatever it is we’ll do next. How can we make this work for us?
I’m not so much interested in the broad-strokes aspects of the theory, a lot of which derives from examples in the Rust Belt and Europe. I don’t think Las Vegas is quite ready to knock down emptying neighborhoods to turn stucco wastelands into parks, pleasant as that might sound.
I do like smart decline’s emphasis on smaller tactics to enhance quality of life: turning acres of undeveloped suburban dirt, empty since the housing flop, into neighborhood amenities by keeping them clean and planting a few trees (shown to improve surrounding property values, by the way).
Hollander also suggests “relaxed zoning” rules that’ll let owners of empty buildings use them for temporary projects — art happenings, ad-hoc markets. Anything to increase circulation in those deadened areas.
I’m not saying a few trees and art shows will turn this mother around. Our mess is huge, with long roots — years of failed or halfhearted diversification efforts, political complacence, a willingness to count the money and damn the consequences — and it’s unlikely to improve very soon. And, of course, the 2011 Legislature still needs to get in there and make it worse.
No, the appeal of this smart decline idea is its challenge to our long-established way of thinking; its insistence that we can grasp this moment instead of merely wait it out; that we can do something besides cross our fingers and slash our budgets. Changing our pro-growth mind-set is like turning an aircraft carrier — long and slow — but it just might be what gets us through.
We are beyond the point of no return. Las Vegas must now face it's destiny, the abyss..
Great column. Some folks see only doom and gloom (see above), others see opportunity.
Only when the U-hauls start heading back to California will I start thinking Vegas is heading in the right direction and away from the abyss.
I'm more interested in how "smart decline" deals with the 5% to 10% of the homes that currently sit vacant in the valley. They are not only a blight on our community, but serve as "attractive nuisances" as well.
Scott -- Las Vegas was always in decline, people just didn't realize it.
Before I moved away in 2007, I did a little research. For every two people that move to my hometown of Las Vegas, one was moving away at the time. Put another way, from 2006 to 2007, Las Vegas' population increased by about 80,000.
That means that while 160,000 people moved to Las Vegas, 80,000 left.
Is Las Vegas in decline? Ask the 80,000 who moved away three years ago if it hasn't been all along.
BringtheRain,
Your comment does not even make sense. 160,000 moved to Vegas yet 80,000 left so Vegas as in a decline?
Think about this. You put $100,000 a year in your bank account but you only spend $50,000. Your bank account, net worth is not in a decline.
Common sense?
Vegas will return. Not this year or next but it will come back. Those predicting gloom and doom must be young because this has happened before. Vegas and the U.S. have always come back bigger and better. It just take time.
Problem with most is they want it all to happen overnight. The decline did not happen overnight and the recovery will not happen overnight. Takes longer to dig out of the hole then it did to dig it in the first place.
Perpetual growth within a contained, finite space.
Uh...who's idea was that?
And does anyone know where I can buy a #150,000 dollar house that is actually WORTH $150,000?
Not in Las Vegas, right?
This article was very well written by the way.
Excellent analogies and conceptual presentation.
Good job, guy!
Vegas and the U.S. have always come back bigger and better - ??????
We can't even win a war, let alone help our own out in a time of need! So you tell me how VEGAS is gonna come back bigger and better!!
VEGAS is looking more like a failed Lehman Brothers! Do you really think the gov't is gonna bail MGM Resorts out?
The slogan, America Runs on Dunkin - well the the real slogan s/b America is powered by greed.
Corporations have destroyed this place... period.
We have Hedge Fund Companies invested in casinos???? Wow, what a brilliant idea!
Back to the basics people. We complain about no jobs, HELLO??? It's because everything is made overseas! Yes, and I know all about what it costs to make things in China - peanuts. Well, we are still unemployed here. No wonder the dollar store these days is always so busy!
Vegas needs to trim it's waistline quite a bit... and it only then will turn itself around.
The funny thing is, week after week - it's another article about job losses, tourism spending down etc etc.... we already know that - you live here - you see what goes on!
The rest of America couldn't give a rats a## about the decline in Vegas. We have to do this ourselves, we need to pull together as a family and stop listening to outsiders explaining how they can change VEGAS to be more sustainable.
It's up to you and the rest of us to make this change.
Scotty-boy, that was truly inspirational!
The sexy cheerleaders in "Bring It" got nothin' on you, pal!!!
I'm at max charge and ready to jump into action!
I can barely sit still, as I'm typing this!
So...what's the plan?
A smaller Las Vegas can be a better Las Vegas. Las Vegas has been out of whack since our visitor-to-resident ratio dropped below 21-to-1. Until it comes back to at least that, it'll be tough here as there are too many hangers on. Our quality of life was much better when the valley had half the residents it does now. Jobs won't return to the west for seven years says today's report, so there's a lot of U-Hauls needing to leave. I'd rather have empty houses than houses filled with unproductive and negative people.
By the way, BringTheRain, your logic is faulty, as has already been pointed out. In the mid-to-late 1990s, Las Vegas started having a rush -- a massive rush -- of people moving here to seek easy jobs and easy money, as evidenced by the count of 8000-10,000 a month who arrived. Most of those were undereducated laborers who came seeking Eldorado. Many of them found it wasn't so easy (although some of them did find jobs). Many of them left after a few months or a year or two. Those leaving Las Vegas were not (and are not) for the most part long-time residents. The death of Las Vegas has been predicted since the first Mormon settlers abandoned their mission in the late 1800s, and yet, we are still here. Our history consists of much more than the most recent boom cycle of 1996-2006.
If the old saying "No pain, no gain" is true then LV is sure to have some gain, but when? The pain has been long and hard with not alot to get excited about. The gain will only come with job growth in the rest of the country. Without that LV will continue to wallow compared to the rest of the country.
Good news - maybe the population will go down fast enough so that when water rationing sets in the rest of the people won't have to leave. Think about our current dynamics with 10's of thousands of empty houses and folks building new houses - they provide jobs but the extreme over supply just drives down the prices so the jobs cost millions in the macro economy. Ain't that a happy thought! More hotels will close - is that just natural selection? We didn't need city center as nice as some of us think it is - it may be the keystone that will cause the walls to tumble down!
Enjoyed the article. Refreshing perspective. The problem with our legislature is that they'll look at our already underfunded, ignored programs (primarily education), and think that because we have a shrinking population, we can cut the funding/attention accordingly.
I don't have faith that we'll shrink intelligently, "intelligence" is not part of this city's/state's culture, and the population doesn't seem to have any interest in changing that.
The recession was not caused by left wingers, people looking for jobs, Obama, illegals, big business, or the jobless, the financial disaster that has floored everybody came out because of blunders by bankers.
The banks are recovering, soon they will be lending to business and jobs will happen and growth will restart. It's simple.
The article is very well written and positive, too positive for some of the gloom fetishists who post on here. I liked it.
It tickels me to death that there are people on their rocking chairs outside their trailers happily blaming everybody except the banks.
"I don't have faith that we'll shrink intelligently, "intelligence" is not part of this city's/state's culture"
I'll take hard work, persistence and know-how over Ivory Tower intelligence any day.
"and the population doesn't seem to have any interest in changing that"
This is based in the classic argument that some type of "intelligence" is better than another, and it has been used against Las Vegas and the West for a hundred years. The west is a different animal, and Las Vegas the most different of all the animals. I don't see the "intelligence" in trying to alter the inherent nature of something.
Las Vegas grew when it offered he world what no other area could offer.
Now there is a casino within 200 miles of everyone.
Entertainment capital of the world? If you like magicians and ventriliquists.
Real estate? Army barracks have more appeal than most of these developments.
Good luck with the HOPED for comeback.
< Vegas will return. Not this year or next but it will come back. Those predicting gloom and doom must be young because this has happened before. >
Here is a question worth a little thought:
What KIND of Vegas do you want to return? What kind of Vegas do you want to come back?
The way it was 20-30 years ago?
The one it was 10 years ago?
One with LESS population or more population?
A Vegas with more industry then just casinos?
One with more jobs and less population? Or one with more jobs and more population?
The last several years in Vegas I would not want to come back; I'd like to see the Vegas again that was there in the late 90's early 2000's (I could make a political comment here but won't since the problems Vegas has is not one particular political party's fault nor is it particular politicians or presidents. Vegas and the State of NV brought a LOT on this on itself).
James, I'm just a frustrated member of the community. From my perspective, it has nothing to do with "Ivory Tower intelligence", it has everything to do with vital services (education, medical, etc.) being among the worst in the country, without any change in attitude or significant public outcry.
You speak of hard work, persistence, and know-how as if it's contradictory to intelligence. I think the best situation is when both exist. Believe me, I'm very critical of "experts" that are all theory and no practice.
And I would argue that, with the strength of the unions in this town/state, "hard work" isn't necessarily a priority. I've only experienced that in the gaming industry, so it might be different in other major industries. Clocking in/clocking out, spending your 8 hours (not a minute more) at work, while taking your 25 mandatory cigarette breaks throughout the day, isn't hard work in my opinion.
I think the "inherent nature" of the city comes from this transient population. Of course those people are going to have less interest in building a strong community"they're just here to make their money and move on. I think we can do more as the transients leave the city/state.
I hate it when media and so called economists base the trends of people moving on uhaul.
Seriously? They only people that move with uhaul are low income families, usually construction or fast food workers.
So we're basing all of the negative Las Vegas economics on this demography?
Either media is getting dumber, or economist are smoking something funky.
uhaul, banks, Real Estate, jobs,
shutters and boards, graffiti and beggars
shopping carts and dumpster divers,
pan handlers and chapter 11
Sure let's knock down homes and build more parks.Great,but we keep forgetting this cost money to aquire the property and then the ongoing maintenance costs.More magical thinking.The whole economy for the last 25 years was based on credit expansion,and now credit is declining,it has hit the wall at all levels of society.I can do without the tax burden of another park and kick around in the natural enviorment.Pretty soon even the long term productive citizens will be calling Mayflower for the pilgramige to other less burdensome shores.If we don't have the gumption to priortize intelligently what our needs are to survive here,our little want's will be scattered about the roadside,run over by the u-hauls driven by ex-burger King table wipers,who may very well prove to be the more intelligent among us!Further growth in the burden on productive citizens seems to be all anybody can come up with,why can't they see we have hit the wall in this area too.What can't go on indefinately,WON'T.
Sorry Scott,missed that u Don't advocate what I just said,my good man.Was too mad to read strait.But u get my drift.If we do something like this though,buldoze the homes for more added taxes to come,who really is to benifit if we can't afford to stick around for added costly ammenities?Even more homes to buldoze?
As the Great Communicator advocated in the '80's, "Vote with your feet!"
I will put the pen between my toes and mark my x accordingly.
Those who predict the death of Las Vegas are a vocal crowd. Vocal, but wrong. For 100+ years.
If anyone thinks that "local" casinos and tribal casinos can compete on any level, as a vacation destination with Las Vegas, they are deluded. poorly traveled, or simply have a heavy axe to grind. Just like the MGM Grand Theme Park was a poor facsimile of and offering only a passing similarity to Disneyland or Walt Disney World, "local" and tribal casinos do the same in regards to Las Vegas.
well maybe las vegas will wake up now . i saw abit of hope when i saw amonix inc bought a 214,000 warehouse toconvert it into a manufactureing plant. maybe if we offer tax breaks to corps to draw them here and ween ourselves off the gaming addiction this city will be more fair and move forward. we need more diversity then just casinos, oh my god someone is going to lose control of OUR city(mgm,ect....)jeeezzzz what will they do then?
Like I have said in another post, someone needs to move another hundred miles up Highway 91 and start a new strip all over again with Palm Springs style 300 room Hotel/casinos like we had here in the fifties. Solid service, good gambling, exceptional dining and entertainment. FORGET this mega resort CRAP!!!
Ah, but people have been wrongly predicting the end for a century. You are among a long list of wrongheaded folks. The future of Las Vegas is and always has been tomorrow, not locked in some nostalgic, romanticized view of yesterday.
Creatip, you defended your own experience, but laid no foundation for the theory. I live here, too. And I've lived here since long before most moved here and overwhelmed the valley with demands.
The one constant in Las Vegas is change.
There's a sucker born every minute.
That bodes well for Las Vegas.
I've always like neighborhoods with less people and less trash, less traffic, less everything. I never wish for Vegas to become a huge Metropolis. I prefer a slower pace of life away from the Strip and if I feel like dealing with huge crowd then I'll just drive to the Strip.
Our elected officials will have to adjust and adjust more when it comes to their budget, same with all the government employees. They will be sacrificing pay much like the rest of us in Nevada while doing more work.
For commenters above --
You don't see it as a problem that for every 2 people that moved to Vegas, one was saying "This place sucks!?"
It's got nothing worth staying for, plain and simple. You stay in Vegas until you find something better in your life. The people who have it good keep it for themselves; everyone else just treats it as a flophouse until they can move on. Until that changes, until the city commits itself to have a soul that everyone can enjoy, it's a waste.
@Det__Munch:
Right said, good questions.
Me too, I'd prefer the good ole times to return to Vegas.
@gmag39:
What happened to modern medicine, years ago that used to take nine months...:) ?
Those empty homes will be bought up by investors and rented out to Section 8 people like the rest of the foreclosures.
wow you people just don't get it. until you make this a place where companies (other then gameing)want to come here (low taxes incentives ect...) we will have cascinos running our city and our lives. they dictate to our local gov what is going to happen. what ever happen to a gov by the people for the people. not gov by the corp for the corp.
lets get more options in vegas then the people will control vegas not corp.
I like Las Vegas. I'm staying. You can go if you want to. I look forward to a brighter future here. The traffic will be better without all the mad people driving around aimlessly. More and better parking all over town. Employees that appreciate what they have and do it well. I'm tired of hearing the whining. Do something positive for yourself! Leave and find it better somewhere else or improve what you have here. Dont just sit and pout.
"Tough times don't last, people do."
Right on allaroundtown
Why is there no Ikea here, really? Did they do some kind of marketing study and determine that a market filled with retirees and white trash will not shop at Ikea?
I've been fortunate enough to live in some of our country's great cities, and I love living here. The city's future is certainly uncertain, but there are opportunities to improve our collective lot. What we need are some good ideas executed. Here's what I'd like to see:
Enact a one cent sales tax increase for a two-year period to do the following things ...
Small Biz Development - Create a fund that a guy like Tony from Zappos could administer to fund technology start ups. Secure leases from distressed commercial space to provide these and other start ups with low cost places to get going. Let's do what we can to diversify our economy and build companies that provide jobs in a sector that's not going anywhere anytime soon. Let's see the next Zappos (or Facebook) start in Vegas
Parental Responsibility Campaign - Create a PSA campaign, with supporting materials, that educates parents about things they can do to ensure their children do better in school (read with them, etc.). Education falls short here due in large part to parents that aren't active in their kid's educations. Much respect to the PSA campaign about not driving through flooded roads, but if our population is better educated, they'll know better than to do such things.
Land into Parks - Purchase open spaces within the city that still have their natural desert landscape and turn them into walking parks. Do this to prevent the entire valley from being one large strip mall, and better connect residents with our natural environment while getting outside to meet their neighbors.
I'd love to see what other (positive) ideas people have to improve where we all live. The whole 'whoa is us, the end days are coming along with the apocalypse and I told you it would' b.s. is a rather tired approach.
"You don't see it as a problem that for every 2 people that moved to Vegas, one was saying "This place sucks!? It's got nothing worth staying for, plain and simple. You stay in Vegas until you find something better in your life. The people who have it good keep it for themselves; everyone else just treats it as a flophouse until they can move on. Until that changes, until the city commits itself to have a soul that everyone can enjoy, it's a waste."
***
I don't see one single problem that a horde of people moved here based upon media stories in the late 1990s that cast Las Vegas as an easy place for the undereducated to move and make a good living, and then when half of them discovered that was simply not true, they moved on.
Las Vegas is what it is. If you came here expecting something more, or if you ran to Las Vegas from another place (another city, a bad marriage, a criminal past, an abusive relationship, yourself ...) and arrived only to find that Las Vegas takes a giant mirror and holds it up to your face and you didn't like what you saw, then it's probably not the city for you.
To attack Las Vegas for its ingrained psyche is a waste of time. Those of us who love Las Vegas, who thrive here, have a deep appreciation for its nature. If it holds "nothing" for you, then don't stay. But beating up Las Vegas because you don't like it is like attacking an ex-girlfriend or an ex-boyfriend when they turn out to be different than the person you were expecting them to be. Emotionally mature people know it's best to simply move on.
What made Las Vegas successful in the past was thousands of visitors leaving millions of dollars each and every weekend then going away. The hotel occupancy rate was well above 95%, and this unique plan did not require an increase in infrastructure. In addition, gaming in Las Vegas was the "only game in town". In other words all was in balance. The reason Las Vegas will "not" return to its previous success is because it cannot get back into balance. To much out of state competition, to many resorts, to few visitors, to much drag on the infrastructure and to many unemployed (never to be employed). The only way to be successful again is to "DOWNSIZE, DOWNSIZE, DOWNSIZE.
Las Vegas will survive and prosper but there will be pain along the way. One major challenge is that the Asian gambler no longer has to come here as they have in the past and they brought a great deal of income to Strip Casinos.
Thank you JPR.
Gbigs, Environ- what are you doing here? If it's so terrible, move. Vegas is a town for grown-ups. Not whiny, spend their whole day complaining trolls like you. A lot of people have done well here. It's tough right now but it'll come back.
I'm a native, I've seen it go up and down. It's been worse before. I even started a business in 2008 and we are doing very well. So your experience with Vegas isn't everyones.
@Creatip: You're a certified dummy!
Let me think. Why would anyone from Ohio come to Las Vegas when they can stay in Ohio and go to the casinos there? Where do I begin? Entertainment, world class accommodations, 5-star restaurants etc.
Have you ever heard of a sport called "golf" that you can play in Las Vegas year round but in Ohio maybe 7 months out of the year?
You claim to be well traveled and yet you are complaining about Las Vegas' unbearable summers? Go to Ohio in the summer and see how hot it is compared to Las Vegas. And don't forget your insect repellant! You'll think you're on the equator!
It is dummies like you that need to think before the post Mr. Walter Mitty!
Greg Lee and family and Randy Black still have not issued statements saying they do not have slot machines paying a one percent payout. Greg Lee and family own the Eureka Casino Randy Black who has a small stake in the Vigin River and Casa Blanca Casino. These three casinos are the major casinos in Mesquite, Nevada. Until the casino start giving the people a fair shake Nevada will continue to decline. Casinos now are even setting payout percentages acording to the dollar amount you have been playing on your reward card. So now the chances of a low dollar player ever winning a jackpot at a casino are being eliminated. The sad part about all of this is that the Nevada Gaming Board is going along with all of this. I think the Nevada Gaming Board has forgotten the fact they are supposed to make sure the people are getting a fair shot at casinos and making sure they are collecting the taxes dues. Now the Nevada Gaming Board and the Casinos are in the same bed. Did you know my wife was eating a salad at one of the major casinos in Mesquite, Nevada. In the salad she found part of knife blade in the salad and when she complained to management they told her it was our job to be checking the food before we ate it and the casinos are not liable. And when we show security the knife blade they would not return it. Told my wife it was casino property. So the economy is not the main reason why Nevada is on the rocks.
Until the big casinos stop ripping of customers with "resort fees", $12 draft beers, 6/5 blackjack, high table minimums, $18 deli sandwiches, etc., the return to prosperity will be very slow. People will only take so much abuse before they find other places to go and spend their money.
Casinos need to go back to that fine balance between profits and giving people something back to take away the sting of losing. Now the average casino customer is viewed as a sucker who needs to be bled dry of every penny.
Check out my LV blog:
http://jimmyhoofa-lv.blogspot.com/
If it is that bad don't vote for a Reid and leave. It will get better it always has but not with the Reids. The casino's pre '85 were better run with a very few exceptions... And the Reids were not in their highest level of incompetence.
Tallison46,
Shows what you know. Harry Reid was a lot closer to the Nevada gaming industry before, than he is now. "Pre '85," to use your benchmark, Reid was Lieutenant Governor of Nevada, and then served as Chairman of the State Gaming Commission. Real sharp there, Tallison.
Creatip,
Don't fret about James P. Reza. He's a noted windbag around here; he'll say anything to get people to look at him. Just on this thread, he counsels against trying to "alter the inherent nature of (Vegas)," but then preaches that "the one constant in Las Vegas is change." Meaningless, contradictory babble.
Creatip, you are justified to be offering constructive criticism of Las Vegas, it's Johnny-One-Note economy, and trashy culture. We here that DO care about the community, are well within our rights to aspire for improvement. The buffoons who say "we should just leave" don't really care about Las Vegas. They wrap themselves in phony civic pride, really just saying "hey everybody, look at me."
You're on target, Creatip and others. Ignore the naysayers. We can take ownership of our community and take it into the 21st century. And if we're lucky, the naysayers, like James P., will rent the next U-Haul and get out of the way.
This scenario in motion makes me wonder and I mean seriously wonder.
"How many people in the final days of empires past, recognized when the party was over?"
This "modern era" has more window-dressing, colorful diversions and more chatter via the "modern communications" technology than ever before.
And the chatter is coming at us from every conceivable direction. There is really no escaping it.
But the rudiments of base reality remain the same.
There have been too MANY foundation-level mistakes, piled one upon another. Too much tweaking and "fast fixes" on the Overview, decision-making levels.
Leadership has been sorely lacking...across the board.
From what I have been reading in various blogs in an assortment of American newspapers, I strongly suspect...very few know that the party is over.
Architect,
Good points, all. I do happen to think that America can and will right its ship. But a lot of short-sighted thinking stands in our way.
The first step to righting the ship is for enough Americans to recognize that we're capsized. And as such is the case from time to time, Las Vegas's future is America's future, writ small.