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StumbleHow Sandoval’s campaign has opened the door for Rory Reid
Sunday, May 2, 2010 | 2 a.m.
Like many political observers gazing at the electoral map, I have had a hard time making out Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid’s path to victory in the governor’s race.
Mostly because of his last name (thanks, Dad) and his title (thanks, G-Stingers), Reid the Younger has absurdly high negatives he has not earned but are quite adhesive. He has trailed Brian Sandoval, he of the long resume and putative crossover appeal, in every poll, often by landslide margins.
Team Rory — for some reason he is emphasizing his first name a lot (sorry, Dad) — has issued policy papers, albeit with little political risk and imaginary funding sources. But the candidate of vision has not seen his poll numbers budge, an ominous sign that has given Sandoval backers a reason to believe he can’t lose.
Until now.
Frightened of being a sacrificial lamb roasted at a tea party, Sandoval has contorted himself so gymnastically on issues from taxation to illegal immigration to domestic partnerships that some have put out an APB for his backbone. Tacking to the right in a GOP primary is one thing — SOP. But Sandoval apparently is so afraid of riling the conservative base during a volatile year in which anger is brewing that he has created the worst of two worlds: He has not only had questions raised about his steadfastness, but he has taken positions, especially on taxes and immigration, that could create problems in a general election.
Whether those could be an antidote for the Democrats to the two-Reids’ toxicity is not yet clear. But after a rocky few weeks, and the Democrats suddenly sensing an opportunity and launching a third-party campaign against him, even the unthinkable has become thinkable: Sandoval losing in the primary.
Yes, Gov. Jim Gibbons, last week named to Time’s List of Least Influential People of 2010 shortly after being named to yet another worst governors list (hello, TV ad), still trails Sandoval in polls. And if need be, a couple of weeks of the greatest Gibbonsworld hits might finish him off.
Sandoval should still win the GOP primary, but only because the governor is so weak and because the former judge has posed as Gibbons on steroids. Some internal numbers in a recent Rasmussen poll (the surveys are controversial because of auto-dial technology) show Gibbons’ problem. The governor is viewed unfavorably by 42 percent of the GOP electorate, according to the poll, while Sandoval is not looked kindly upon by only 12 percent. That would seem to suggest game over, unless ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon somehow plays spoiler (and he is more likely to draw from Gibbons).
Those Rasmussen numbers affect general election matchups, too, as Gibbons holds only 66 percent of Republicans and 46 percent of unaffiliated voters against Reid while Sandoval’s numbers are 84 percent of Republicans and 72 percent of independent voters against the commission chairman.
So Sandoval remains the strongest general election contender in the field. For now. During the past few weeks, Sandoval has given Reid the Younger some ammunition to begin piercing his invincible veneer.
His never-new-taxes pledge, delivered, as could only happen in Nevada, to first lady Dawn Gibbons on her radio show is not just unrealistic, but there is also not a chance Sandoval actually believes it. How do I know? Because nobody with a triple-digit IQ believes it.
Then, after stating at the outset of his campaign that he supported domestic partnerships, Sandoval was confronted by the Nevada News Bureau’s exhumation of a 2002 “Marriage Protection Pledge” he signed that declared he would “oppose any government recognition or endorsement of marriage imitations.” So which is it?
Finally, 10 days ago during a debate in Reno, the piece de resistance: After previously having been exposed by the Sun’s J. Patrick Coolican as flip-flopping on driver’s licenses for undocumented folks, Sandoval said he supported the Arizona immigration law, under which a guy such as Brian Sandoval, if he were in the wrong place at the wrong time, might be asked for his papers. Suddenly, one of the raisons d’etre of a Sandoval candidacy, his crossover appeal to Hispanics, was in jeopardy.
The once-anointed next governor has to be worried — or should be worried — that the general election campaign will be about one question: Who is the real Brian Sandoval?
Yes, he’s still the favorite because Reid the Younger will continue to suffer from guilt by association. But could it be Campaign 2010’s cartography may have to be revised? Thanks to Sandoval’s chameleonlike changes, there’s a new line on the map, thin and hard to see though it may be, and it is labeled: Rory Reid’s path to victory.
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Locally owned and independent for more than 50 years.
Here's what I have personally experienced. I had an issue with UMC. They refused to fix it. So I wrote to the county commissioners. All of them.
The first one to respond was Steve Sisolak's office.
The second one to respond, although not to me, but directly to UMC, was Rory Reid's office.
Suddenly UMC saw the light. Issue resolved.
My good for nothing commissioner, Tom Collins didn't bother to respond at all.
So, all I can say is that at least two of the county commissioners listen and respond to their constituents.
Reid and Sisolak.
As a major fan of Sandoval's, I must admit that it has been difficult during this primary to de-emphasize some of Sandoval's biggest strengths, such as his cross-over appeal, and his ability to bring a broad approach to the numerous problems facing Nevada. Make no mistake, Sandoval is a conservative. But he is also a conservative that non-conservatives can be comfortable with.
I think that Ralston omits one of Rory's biggest problems, though. Rory is going to have to convince Nevada voters that one-party rule on a state and federal level is a good thing. I doubt anyone but the most delusional Democrat believes such a thing. Plus, Reid has done absolutely nothing to show that he can be an independent voice in his own party. He has stood behind party's power brokers on the Commission at every opportunity.
This is why Reid is doing everything it can to help Gibbons win the primary. Gibbons is the only thing big enough to blind the voters to the disastrous consequences of a Reid victory.
As a conservative I admire Sandoval. Rory and Harry need to both find private employment and leave the governing to those with ideas and vision.
With the way Reid the Elder has run the senate (this war is lost, young articulate negro) and Reid the Younger has run the County (UMC, foster care) you'd think bad governance was a family ideal.
So no new taxes is not something believed possible by people with IQs over 100. Thanks, Jon for the personal attack. Rather than carrying water for over compensated public employees and their politicized unions, why not a nod to the rest of us who actually pay the salaries.
You are at least partially responsible for mis-characterizing Gibbons as a buffoon to advance your tax and spend opinions, when you could be doing a real public service explaining why public employees need to make so much more than comparable people in the private sector. Public pensions are bankrupting Nevada just like has already happened in California.
Just how stupid are we really, Jon, to want to restore balance in public/private compensation? Sandoval is right to promise no new taxes. I just hope he means it.
Does this that Team Rory will stop using the front organization you reported on a couple of weeks ago? Or will they continue to do so to hedge their bets?
The real shame for all the candidates is that none of them will take a strong, realistic stand on being fiscally responsible.
Sandoval will do a hard left turn once nominated.
The real issue is the "birther" issue, he was obviously born in Terra Del Fuego amongst the penguins.
Rory 2010, is the reason alone to not vote for him. He wants nothing to do with his father, who has given him everything politically. I am amazed that the Reids and Gibbons can not even muster an add on all the positive things they have done in office. The media loves to blast Sandoval, but at least his track record shows a positive result while he held office. The three amigos should be looking for work with their brilliant resumes in this Nevada economy they created. Welcome to the job search, Gibbons and Reids.
There are 12 candidates in the race.
4 buy ads, 8 can't.
In the two papers in LV, you get to read about the 4 that buy ads. In effect, the ads that we mostly detest reading, also limit the field of viable candidates. Many readers/voters then play along and limit their choices too. This is some sort of backwards structure.
The "journalists" write stories about what the ads say.
curtis4governor
Well, here we go with another piece of Ralston BS where Rory Reid is the only Democratic Candidate for Governor and I and all the 'other' parties are marginalized.
Sandoval is and will clean RoryBOY's clock if they both make it to the November general election. There is NO doubt on that prediction.
If I beat RoryBOY on June 8th, there is NO WAY any Republican can beat me in November, none, nada, zip. They have ZERO chance of winning.
If you profile Brian Sandoval(FBI Style)you come up with a sociopath suffering from Narcissistic personality disorder.
If you profile Jim Gibbons, you come up with an ideolog who is dumber than a red brick about how the world works but who greatly overestimates his skill sets.
If you profile RoryBOY, you come up with trying to be like Daddy but with much fewer smarts and gross negatives in the leadership and management area. He is where he is because of his Daddy's position, not because he is competent or skilled at anything of consequence.
Now my beating Rory might not happen, but everyday my ads are seen by more than 200,000 Nevadans. That number will go up dramatically this month. Some straw polls from up North I have heard about but not seen, have me beating Rory 53% to 47%.
And as John Paul Jones said: "We have not yet begun to fight."
But since those peoiple who actually read the Sun are few and far between and all you do is preach to the small choir, you might be in for a big surprise come June 9th.
In any case if you can find a way to the CSN Henderson at 6:30 on May 7th you and any reader can ask Dave Curtis, Myself and many of the other candidates for Governor all the questions you desire.
Fred Conquest
Democratic Candidate for Governor
www.fredconquest.com
Mr. Conquest. I have never seen your name as a candidate other that your comments here on the Sun. If you can not make your candidicy known to me, an unaffiliated voter through any other means, then you have no more of a chance to win the election than I have to win the Powerball lottery.
I am not trying to be offensive, just stating reality. No one knows who you are.
RR has about as much chance of carrying the N, the rurals, and the Nonpartisans as your average rube in Las Bugsy has of hitting Megabucks on one pull. Which means Las Bugsy is going to have to vote en masse for him to even beat the above moron.
sandoval is a shoe in the republican primary over gibbons and the rest. his problem is with his fellow hispanics when november comes. if he abandons his compatriots, the kid is history.
I find it absolutely fascinating that all the Republican candidates support an immigration law such as Arizona's. Are they nuts? An unbelievable portion of NV's fiscal budget is generated from tourism, which if we were to pass such a regulation, would dry up immediately. From where exactly do they propose to make up the difference? From thin air?
Mike really is the only RIGHT choice for Nevada. You guys need to check his site out and find out his conservative platforms for Nevada. Sandoval is a RINO. Gibbons showed us that he doesn't have leadership skills. And we know we cant have a tax and spend Reid in the governor's house. VOTE MIKE
http://mikemontandon.com
Sandoval is not going to lose the primary. Coverage of the Sandoval campaign indicates that Roy, Gibbons and Montandon still haven't figured out how to get into this race. The media characterizes Sandoval's campaign by its strenghts: cross-over appeal, solid resume, control in the polls. Yet, the Roy and Gibbons campaigns are constantly characterized by their negatives: polarizing name id, sorry polling, and lack of an answer for Sandoval. They are relying on fortuitous doors to open for their campaigns. Once Roy decides to share some real opinions and ideas, those doors will shut. And any undecided Republicans will certainly see that a vote for Gibbons in June is a vote for Reid.
Boftx,
The Sun, Jon Ralston and the editorial side of the RJ have gone out of their way to marginalize my candidacy and every one not named Reid or Sandoval. the pretty much have to cover the Governor.
The Reid campaign has told them NOT to do ANY stories on me or Dave Curtis of the GREEN party or they will not get their under the table money.
I have ads running in the RJ and on Cox ON Demand, on Facebook and in 7 newspapers up North.
On May 8th an ad will break in the view. My website has my proposals and such.
Come over to our town hall forum at CSN Henderson on May 7th at 6:30 and meet us and learn what we are about.
Fred
Jim Gibbons: Conservative but not electable. Brian Sandoval: Electable but wishy-washy conservative. Mike Montandon: Electable and solidly conservative. Brian Sandoval has demonstrated again and again that he can be shaken out of his convictions to pander for votes. Nevada conservatives don't have that problem in Mike Montandon. http://mikemontandon.com
FredConquest
I am a registered Democrat. Exactly the person that you want to have notice you.
You failed to give a date for your arrival in Nevada at your website. Perhaps that is an oversight on your part. If you fail to see the relevance, that would explain a lot.
"develop an Internet business to integrate into his marketing and public relations firm."
Also from your site, you have experience at public relations and yet the only reason that I have ever heard of you is that I read and post on Sun stories.
Is it your strategy to blame others for your lack of public relations?
What groups' endorsements have you won in your public relations frenzy?
How do you hope to build consensus in the state legislature without the firm support of groups within the state and how would this be any different from the current Governor, Jim Gibbons?
I think the Fire Fighters are looking for a friend. ;)
Mr. Ralston, Las Vegas Sun, in all fairness, these other candidates should be given equal opportunity to create their own public relations boo-boo's. Please attend their forum at CSN.
I have read a lot of the B S concerning Harry Reid and what it boils down is that it is all the effort of the Republicant's party trying to oust Harry Reid for their personal gain and nothing to do with the welfare of Nevada or its citizens.. Harry Reid has done a great job for Nevada and no freshman will Senator will be able duplicate the good Reid has done for this State. All the Republicant's can do is throw there falsehoods and lies out for the media to feed on. They also provide us with the shining example of John Ensign. The other shining example of Republicant leadership is Jim Gibbons. Those two alone caused to change my voter registration. The matter of Rory Reid should be a shoe in for Nevadans, he has proven many times over that he is looking out for the god of Nevadans and not special interests.
I have read a lot of the B S concerning Harry Reid and what it boils down is that it is all the effort of the Republicant's party trying to oust Harry Reid for their personal gain and nothing to do with the welfare of Nevada or its citizens.. Harry Reid has done a great job for Nevada and no freshman will Senator will be able duplicate the good Reid has done for this State. All the Republicant's can do is throw there falsehoods and lies out for the media to feed on. They also provide us with the shining example of John Ensign. The other shining example of Republicant leadership is Jim Gibbons. Those two alone caused to change my voter registration. The matter of Rory Reid should be a shoe in for Nevadans, he has proven many times over that he is looking out for the good of Nevadans and not special interests.
Three cheers for By pri1ncess. She has hit the nail on the head. I'm tired of hearing about the 'toxicity' of Harry Reid. He is toxic only in the minds of the mindless.
pri1ncess, Harry Reid does NOT represent the people of Nevada. He has forgotten that he is a public servant. You talk about special interests. Take a look at who is contributing to Reid's campaign, then try to say that special interests don't own Reid. We don't need his son as governor unless you want to pay a lot more in taxes as he spends money like the democrat he is.
FredConquest: I've seen your photo and your eating disorder is apparent. You really need to take better care of yourself and lose about one hundred pounds before trying to tell the rest of us how to live our lives. On second thought, perhaps you and Rory could do stand-up comedy as the reformed "Laurel and Hardy" progressive duo.
You don't have to be born in Nevada to be eligible as a candidate for governor of Nevada. But, you have to be born in the USA, or as an American diplomatic or military dependent overseas, to be POTUS. Barry Akbar Obummah, isn't eligible to be POTUS, being an Illegal.
We need another Reid in Nevada like we need a hole in our head. Judge Sandoval IS the best choice for Govenor of Nevada.
I think it is great that Mr. Ralston refuses to have the other 8 candidates running for Governor on his show. I asked why he did not have them on their show. He e-mailed me saying that they are not viable candidates. Isn't that decision up to the voters and not the media? Doesn't that limit the public's exposure to alternatives to Reid, Gibbons or Sandoval? I would have to say he is an accomplished journalist but still one of the most unethical reporters on TV and in print.