Duke entices early bettors in Final Four

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, March 31, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Duke is college basketball's closest equivalent to the New York Yankees.

Many love the Blue Devils. Many hate the Blue Devils. When it comes to the sports betting public, however, Duke is nothing short of revered.

"There's no anti-sentiment against them in betting," said Jeff Sherman, assistant manager of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook. "They are backed by the public when they're playing as a favorite. They garner a lot of respect."

Duke already is drawing that kind of support this week at the Hilton, where the majority of the early money has come in on the Blue Devils as 2.5-point favorites against West Virginia in Saturday's Final Four game in Indianapolis.

Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, is not surprised. He said LVSC came up with the 2.5-point spread anticipating more action on Duke.

"As far as the betting public, we know with a gun to their head to take Duke or West Virginia, they are going to take Duke seven times out of 10," Seba said. "We thought they would draw more money than West Virginia. We felt like they had to be the favorite."

The Duke game will be Saturday's second semifinal, following the early game between Butler and Michigan State.

Butler is posted as 1.5-point favorite at the Hilton and nearly every other sports book across the Las Vegas valley.

Seba said the reason for that line was simple — Butler is the better team.

"We just thought that Michigan State was really lucky to get to where they are now," Seba said. "They had so many close wins in the tournament. We feel like Butler was more impressive with how they got there."

Butler and Michigan State both are No. 5 seeds, making their game the lowest seeded Final Four matchup in nine years.

Michigan State took advantage of a relatively easy path to the Final Four as the highest seed it faced was No. 4 Maryland in the second round. Butler, however, knocked off both No. 1 Syracuse and No. 2 Kansas State last weekend.

Seba said if it weren't for Michigan State coach Tom Izzo, who has advanced to six Final Fours in 12 years, Butler would be a larger favorite.

"It's a coaching mismatch with Izzo being there and having the experience," Seba said. "Without that, I think it's a three or four-point favorite for Butler."

Butler also will have an advantage with the games being played in Indianapolis. The Bulldogs' campus is less than six miles from Lucas Oil Stadium.

For Seba, everything points toward a Butler victory.

"I think Michigan State should have lost to Maryland," Seba said. "Butler doesn't get intimidated and doesn't lose their cool. That's one good thing about this team."

As for a Duke-bias, well, Seba doesn't have one.

"Personally, I like West Virginia," Seba said. "I just think they are playing better than anyone right now."

Final Four Props

The Hilton released its list of Final Four proposition bets Tuesday afternoon.

The Hilton is offering 14 props on each of the two national semifinal games. Some of the wagers include largest lead of the game (over/under 12.5 for the Butler game, over/under 13.5 for the Duke game); total three-point shots made (over/under 11.5 for the Butler game, over/under 12 for the Duke game); and a handful of player props.

Sherman said he remembered some of the free-throw props being popular during last year's Final Four. This year the Hilton posted a prop asking gamblers whether or not Michigan State's Durrell Summers would miss a free-throw in the game against Butler.

The "yes" is at a price of +140 (risking $1 to win $1.40) and the "no" is at -160 (risking $1.60 to win $1). Summers is an 80 percent free-throw shooter and averages about two per game.

"There will be a lot of ooh-ing and aah-ing whenever he gets to the free-throw line," Sherman said. "People like stuff with the names they recognize."