Las Vegas Sun

February 12, 2012

Currently: 58° | Complete forecast | Log in

Why the Senate race is all about Reid

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Sunday, March 7, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Harry Reid Is Dead, one in an occasional series:

I’m not sure who is less praiseworthy these days — the four-term senator stumbling through his re-election partly because he perpetually has his foot in his mouth, or his unimaginative opponents who have nothing to run on but GOP talking points and twisted, inflammatory rhetoric.

Beyond the reflexive Reid-haters and vote-blue-all-the-time Democrats, there is little for everyone else to chew on so far, outside of what could be a grand, grotesque spectacle playing out on a national stage, with a little Tea Partying thrown in for good measure.

There are those who believe this is all academic, that Reid is in his sarcophagus, mummified, unable to be resuscitated by anyone, even Jon Scott Ashjian taking the Brendan Fraser role of inadvertent grave-wrecker.

Reid’s poll numbers continue to be stagnant or even, as a Rasmussen Report survey showed last week, trending downward. After disclosing results showing Reid trailing both Sue Lowden (51-38) and Danny Tarkanian (50-37), the firm published a report pointing out the majority leader’s numbers have gone from the 40s to the 30s, “suggesting that the Senate race continues to be a referendum on Reid rather than a show of support for his GOP opponents.”

Even if Tea Party hopeful Ashjian manages to get some traction, surmounting an attack campaign by the GOP and its friends as well as conspiracy theorists who tied him to Reid even though he clearly despises the senator, he may not be able to wrest away enough votes to save the majority leader. As ex-Gov. (emphasis on “ex”) Jon Corzine in New Jersey will tell you, a third-party contender is not always salvation.

Yes, this is a different year and Nevadans, with 80 percent disgusted with the state’s direction, may be angry enough to vote for a third-party contender, be it Ashjian or an Independent American or someone else. But as pundit Stu Rothenberg and others have discussed, until Reid can move his own numbers upward, he will not be able to pull the GOP nominee down far enough to survive.

I don’t believe the Reid Machine is run by naifs counting on Ashjian to save their man. Every little bit helps, though, and put enough bits together and Reid might be able to revive his chances. But Rothenberg recently focused on the statistic I have long thought is most salient:

“A huge 94 percent of Nevada voters know enough about Harry Reid to have an opinion of him, while the comparable figure for the leading Republicans in the race is much lower. Sue Lowden is at 56 percent, Danny Tarkanian is at 52 percent and Sharron Angle is at 26 percent.

“No matter what Ashjian draws in the hypothetical ballot tests, Reid is stuck between 37 percent and 39 percent of the vote in most polls, in the (Public Opinion Strategies) survey and in others.”

That is, Reid is so well known, so many people are decided and won’t have their minds changed that the incumbent needs a miraculous campaign to win. He can keep telling voters about his juice — as he did Friday by boasting of getting the most per capita of any state in a new HUD grant. But people are not just tuning out Reid, they are willing to listen to GOP opponents behaving as if they are running for kindergarten class president.

Take Reid’s latest inartful display, declaring on the Senate floor when the Friday jobless numbers came in better than expected: “Today is a big day in America. Only 36,000 people lost their jobs today, which is really good.”

Forget that not all 36,000 lost their jobs Friday — it’s a monthly figure. Or that Reid was correct — it is “really good” that it wasn’t worse, with expectations as high as more than twice that figure. But his wording was so clumsy — sound vaguely familiar? — that he had to return to the floor and explain, while also launching on Republicans, who probably were in the studio preparing ads.

Senate hopefuls Tarkanian and Lowden immediately pounced. Tarkanian sniped that Reid is “hardhearted” and Lowden bleated Reid’s remarks are “indefensible.” The former is just reflexive — make Reid seem insensitive as opposed to inarticulate; the latter is factually false — of course they are defensible.

How embarrassing. For them.

But this is what the Nevada Senate race has come down to, folks: Are Reid’s numbers so crippling that a flawed nominee can run a rote, cookie-cutter campaign against him and still win?

Stick around for the next installment of Harry Reid Is Dead, a series that the senator will keep trying to get canceled before November’s special funeral episode.

Discussion: comments so far…

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy. Additionally, we now display comments from trusted commenters by default. Those wishing to become a trusted commenter need to verify their identity or sign in with Facebook Connect to tie their Facebook account to their Las Vegas Sun account. For more on this change, read our story about how it works and why we did it.

Only trusted comments are displayed on this page. Untrusted comments have expired from this story.

No trusted comments have been posted.

Post a comment

Commenting requires registration.

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy.

If you would like to submit your comment as a letter to the editor, you may submit it here.

Most Popular

  • Viewed
  • Discussed
  • E-mailed
  • Facebook