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Friday, Jan. 22, 2010 | 10:51 a.m.
Sun Coverage
Gov. Jim Gibbons' administration doesn't expect the economy to rebound until at least mid-2011.
The state Budget and Planning Division, in a report to the Economic Forum, said it "continues to anticipate an initially weak Nevada recovery, beginning in fiscal year 2011." Tourism will remain "under strain" until consumers are again willing to open their pocket books. The state will then see a "gradual stabilization" in gaming tax revenue but no significant growth until fiscal 2012, which begins July 1, 2011.
The Economic Forum began its deliberation today on how much the state will collect in taxes in the final months of this fiscal year and next fiscal year. Their forecast will allow the governor and Legislature to determine what actions that must be taken -- either more cuts to state government or increases in taxes.
Gibbons, who is seeking re-election, has proposed cutting education spending. His GOP primary opponent, Brian Sandoval, has also put forth a plan to reduce government spending.
The Budget and Planning Division said in its report that if the gaming tax rate continues at a 6.3 percent, the division expects the state will collect $634.9 million this fiscal year, down 2.4 percent from fiscal 2009. And in 2011, the prediction is the gaming tax collections will be $635.6 million, or a 0.6 percent drop from the present fiscal year.
The live entertainment tax that is tied to the casinos will also decline, according to the division. "'The Great Recession' has devastated household wealth, which in turn has impacted live entertainment tax revenues," the report said.
It doesn't see any significant growth of tax revenue from entertainment until fiscal 2012. The prediction is for collections of $104.7 million this year, down 9.4 percent from last fiscal year. And next fiscal year starting in July the collections will be $104.2 million, down 0.5 percent.
The sales and use tax, another major source of revenue for the state, is expected to decline during the next two fiscal years -- 12.1 percent this year and 4.7 percent in 2011.
"Inflation-adjusted per capita sales and use tax receipts are lower than at any time since 1982," the division said. It is basing its prediction on the average U.S. retail sales per national jobs, the Las Vegas visitor volume and inflation-adjusted gas prices.
In good news for health advocates, the division predicts a major decrease in taxes collected from cigarette sales. The forecast is for a decline of 27.9 percent this year for $47.5 million in taxes and for an 11.7 percent drop in fiscal 2011 to $42 million.
The collections from the modified business tax are expected to drop 3.9 percent next fiscal year to $337.5 million.
The division also is expecting declines in tax revenue from insurance, real property and commercial recording fees.
and what magic takes place in 2011?
China sends jobs back? Healthcare becomes cheap? Gas prices plummet? Oh I know, high interest rates drop, oh wait...
And here I thought it was going to be this year! Maybe it won't be until 2012. Creating entirely new jobs is difficult and time consuming.
and vegas is "recession proof". remember that old chestnut the p.r. types were throwing around wayyyyyy back in winter of 2008?
ya, how'd that work out?
vegas seems to not grasp that its only way of making money is from people coming TO vegas and not things coming FROM vegas.
and the amount of people that have the money to come to las vegas has dropped down to a point that isn't large enough to support all the rooms we have.
" Tourism will remain "under strain" until consumers are again willing to open their pocket books. The state will then see a "gradual stabilization" in gaming tax revenue but no significant growth until fiscal 2012, which begins July 1, 2011."
HA! what a line! how about Tourism will remain under strain untile consumers HAVE A JOB to be able to once again have pocket books to open...
Corporations in this town are incapable of learning fundamental lessons. This isn't the kind of place where you want to "minimize costs and maximize profits." The moment things get even slightly better here, the hotels jack their rates back up. They don't seem to get the idea that people who have been here before remembering the excessive costs and the minimal amount of wins they had when gambling. Who'd want to repeat that kind of vacation? They need to learn from the mob of old: keep the costs low and the wins coming. People would come in droves for that and keep coming back. You make less profit now but much more profit in the long run.
Well said dipstick...
Funny, I was at City Center just before New Years day, about 3pm, and there were hundreds of construction workers with their coolers filled with beer and weed leaving work for the day. The point is that CC still has a way to go, and the Union loafers are still milking it like a contented cow. The end is coming, however.
wizardofOz, very, very funny comments. LOL.
My feeling is what ever the economic situation.If the Local politicians started to enforce quality of life laws with zero tolerance.From lousy drivers to dogs crapping on the street without the owners picking up etc. Las Vegas would because of the climate would become a place that people would want to be and not just for the gambling.
billykydd :
Don't you think that dogs crapping on the street might just be a non issue here with respect to some of the more serious issues facing Las Vegas at the moment?
Wow, I see why most people end up working for substance pay their entire life...
Innovation is the key, we won't rebound until the next great innovation comes along. The predicotrs of the economy are just forecasting the historical probibility of this happening.
The information age didn't necessarily bring jobs in the beginning, but most of the jobs it did came through worker effeciency. I'd guess that the next is in energy, mobile communication enabling industry improved effeciency or like technology.
Just a guess, then when it does happen all the doomsdayers on here will think it's time to party like it's 1999 again until the bottom falls out again and they are laid off for not developing their skills and they go back on here ranting how bad life is and how it's never going to get better.
The world changes, those jobs shipped overseas became too expensive here, and healthcare isn't that expensive if you shut your pie hole and get on a treadmill 3-6 days a week...
gqbossing :
Your comment was interesting until you became know it all and abusive in the last paragraph. Too bad, but I guess everyone is too tempted to take potshots on this discussion page..