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Wednesday, Jan. 20, 2010 | 2 a.m.
As the Scott Brown/Martha Coakley psychodrama played out Tuesday in Massachusetts, turning a sure win for Ted Kennedy’s party into a Campaign 2010 metaphor, many Nevada Democrats surely were seeking therapy — or asking Oscar Goodman for a few of those sapphire-colored bottles.
It is always dangerous to draw conclusions for one state from an election in another, especially a special election to fill a seat. But although Nevada may not be Massachusetts, the result surely has implications for this state, its highest-ranking politician and both parties. Democrats can invoke all the “eternity in politics” clichés they want, but they know they are in jeopardy of losing what they gained in 2008 — and more.
For years, it has been accepted that a Democrat in Nevada is different than a Democrat in Massachusetts. But we now know of at least one similarity: Both seem like endangered species.
You can almost smell it out there, the unmistakable scent of fear. Democrats are frightened not just about losing two Reids in the state’s two highest offices but also suffering losses down the ticket that could affect the state’s political structure for a decade because reapportionment and redistricting looms next year.
Massachusetts is different from Nevada in one clear way — but a way that still may be a harbinger of results here. Democrats outnumber Republicans by three to one in Massachusetts, but both are minority parties compared to unaffiliated voters. Independents ruled there Tuesday — and will drive the outcome of Campaign 2010 — or so it appears from this telescopic vantage point.
Independents may not be as numerous here, but if races are competitive, they could be decisive. In Nevada, Democrats have an 84,000-voter lead over the GOP — they have about 43 percent of the state’s voters. Independents here make up about 15 percent of the electorate, so the Democrats here could argue their impact in November could be vitiated.
Maybe. But the raw numbers suggest they will be determinative here, too — there are 174,000 independents here, twice the Democratic advantage over the GOP. If the numbers here reflect the turn against the Democratic agenda among independents that existed in Massachusetts and does elsewhere — and polling data suggests it does — that is ominous.
And with all due respect to the Family Reid, I have yet to see any evidence that Harry (Senate race) or Rory (governor’s race) are lighting a fire under the base. Neither is much more scintillating as a candidate than Martha “Curt Schilling is a Yankee fan” Coakley, although neither is likely to say Jerry Tarkanian is a University of New Mexico supporter.
The other potential nexus with Massachusetts, where Barack Obama received 62 percent of the vote in 2008, is the president’s approval rating. In a recent summary of poll numbers, Politics Daily reported that Rasmussen found Obama had a 57 percent approval (41 percent disapproval) rate in Massachusetts while health care reform was at 52 percent approval (46 disapproval). A PPP poll had Obama at 44-43 there and health care reform at 47-41.
Compare those with recent Obama numbers in Nevada, where the president won 55 percent of the vote: Rasmussen found Obama at 49-50 and health care disapproved by 54 percent (39 percent approve). PPP had Obama at 44-52 here and health care reform at 36-54. Mason-Dixon had Obama at 44-43.
So the president’s numbers here, by some measures, are significantly weaker than they are in Massachusetts, which means even bigger trouble for the Democrats. Add in what I have called the reverse symbiosis of the two Reids on the ticket and the potential vortex that creates for the entire Democratic slate, and it’s no wonder they feel like they are looking into a wave building as if they were on the deck of the Poseidon.
I can think of no atmospherics here that help the Democrats — except one. The best thing the Democrats have going here is the Republican Party.
The GOP has no money, quirky (charitable description alert) leadership and internecine warfare. To wit:
The state Democratic Party raised $1.1 million last year — 10 times what the state GOP amassed. While Reid the Elder has a tight grip on the Democratic Party, GOP boss Chris Comfort appears as much enamored with his reflection in the mirror as with the prospect of victories in November. And the purity tests being imposed in many GOP primaries, including the one against Reid, also may have the Republicans sipping weak tea by November.
Some of this can be ameliorated by outside assistance — money, sane people. But if the Democrats hang on here in November, it may have less to do with what they were able to accomplish than what the Republicans here botched.
"So the president's numbers here, by some measures, are significantly weaker than they are in Massachusetts, which means even bigger trouble for the Democrats"
Couldn't agree more Jon. As for Harry Reid:
Harry - Prepare to be vaporized. Your election campaign is lost. You're a light skinned loser with no negro dialect and you smell.
Ralston is absolutely right.
Democrats....everything is going to be A-OK.
No need to worry.
Democrats-
You need to be worried. Your constituents are looking for a someone to elect that will actually represent them.
Republicans-
You need to be worried. Your constituents are looking for someone to elect that will acutally represent them.
Could this be the year for an Independent? Or maybe a Green Party candidate?
If the D's and R's keep it up - all the bickering amongst themselves while our interests get lost in the noise, there is a chance the citizenry will elect someone without a D or an R after their name.
I'm looking for a hero. Don't care what letter is after the name.
I'm not too worried. Republicans and Teabagger operatives will eat their own too.
This is a pretty good read:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2010/1/19/...
The Republican and Democratic parties will never change, the will go on throughout the years as they have been going. The problems seem to be with the incumbents. If they would have kept the trust of the people close to their hearts, they would have no problems in getting re-elected. From the moment they were sworn into office, some of them seemed to have found a new job description giving new meaning to whom they work for, and the "we the people" have not been on that list.
So when election comes around this November, the candidates we will or will not vote for depends on who actually remembered the citizen and did something for our cause. We will also remember the incumbent that had no time for the people or our state.
The media can blame the people, while we will blame the incumbent.
CORRECTION: We are NONPARTISANS. "Independent" is a separate, registered POLITICAL party.
You, too, can become a Nonpartisan if you're fed up with both parties simply by calling your County Clerk and asking for a change of registration form. Find yours here: http://nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=81
Hello
Hey Jon,that is a pretty good article,for once you are reporting a bit more like a repoter,and sticking with the facts,Very good.
I my self do not see the Massachusetts result as a victory for the Republicans,buy no mean should be interpreted that way,it is a vote against Obama and his Socialist Agenda pure and simple,the independent have spoken again,and Republicans should really take notice,this was a vote for America,note for Republican.
I will change my registration today to Independent.
Oldone
Oldone:
Register and Vote in the Primaries. Third parties (Ross Perot) have not worked. The First Problem is Candidates and to choose candidates, you must vote in the Party Primary!
The second problem is voter fraud. People reported electioneering (one by an armed security guard with a Coakley sign outside a polling place), absentee ballots (in spanish) passed out near a polling place with instructions on how to mark "Coakley), a package of absentee ballots brought to a polling station from a nursing home ..and the list goes on...in MA yesterday. That is the Machine and it exists in every state. That guy Schultz said he would vote 20 times to stop..Brown. That is where America is and has been for a long time.
Don't kneejerk. Look at the problem and take serious steps to correct it..Get involved in Primaries..and work very hard to clean up voter fraud otherwise registering..and voting for either party means nothing.
Oldone, "Independent" is a political party; "Nonpartisan" means you want nothing of either party so choose well when changing.
Want no more robo calls? Leave off your phone number when you re-register; it is NOT required.
I enjoyed the article Jon. It was insightful and truthful and did not contain too much liberal of conservative speculation.
I too believe that Harry is in trouble but I believe it has to do with Health care and his inability (its actually that he doesn't want to) to secure funds for Nevada.
As for Rory, all I need to say is UMC.
However, I wanted Brown to win because of his fiscal point of view but I hope the media keeps a close eye on him because I don't know enough about him. The media should hone in an all of congress.
I think you're making too big a deal out of the election in Mass. Coakley was a lazy campaigner and they ran a terrible campaign. She went on vacation while her opponent went on the air. Does anyone think Harry Reid will make that mistake?
MA elected Mitt Romney, too. I'm just sayin!
The Independent American Party is not an Independent. Independent is just that and indicates nonpartisan. I don't belong to any party and am registered as an Independent which I have been all my voting life. I vote for the person not the party.
Sarah Pallin is supporting McCain over J D Hayworth in Arizona, so you know the "new conservative movement" is a joke. McCain is for amnesty just like Sandoval and Lowden. Louden tried to get the anti-abortion plank removed fro the Republican party platform.
The Reids are for themselves and they won't bat an eye when they wreck the democrats chance to win anything in Nevada.
Between them, lvcastmac and edgewise have summed it up. And as Jon says,
"The best thing the Democrats have going here is the Republican Party."
Exactly.
"This guy that won in Massachusetts actually LIKES people."
Someone give the Whiz a clue: Scott Brown's a politician, just like all the rest of them. He's not special, he's willing to tell you whatever you want to hear to get elected.
When will the teabaggers wake up and realize how they're being exploited by the republican establishment? I thought I had seen gullible until the whole Tea Party "movement" happened. They redefine the term.
Jon says "For years, it has been accepted that a Democrat in Nevada is different than a Democrat in Massachusetts."
====================================
Really I think not when they voted 60 strong for there payola bill
Reid and Democrats reached no clear consensus Wednesday on a path forward on their landmark health insurance bill.
Obama lamented that he was working too hard to take time to speak down to the people
-------------------------------------
Whoa Obama and Reid need to LISTEN
Ah... The Tea Party movement has finally hit home to ksand99. He has been a denier for months, but now he sees the light...
That's OK folks, just keep thinking the TeaParty is nothing to worry about, you'll never see the real change that is coming!
Well another thing the Democrats have going for them is Arnold Schwarzenegger. He's the only Republican I like but everybody is blaming him for California's exploding budget crisis. Tuition at UCLA just went up another 30%. lol
ksand99, it seems as if you lack faith in politicians. If so, why do you think they can run health care for the country?
Scott Brown was voted in because of his position on the health care bill. Coakley would have supported it.
Talking about exploiting, when will liberals wake and and realize that big government is not in the business to help all. When will they realize that although dems have great intentions, please don't forget that the path to "somewhere" is paved with good intentions.
We are today witnessing a movement in the country. Some people call it the Tea Party, some call it by other names, me I see it as "People Power." People Power is bigger than the Tea Party, it is bigger than the Democratic Party, and bigger than the Republican Party. The People Power movement I refer to is comprised of the young and old, grandmothers, grandfathers, mothers, fathers and children. It is comprised of people from all political, economical and racial segments of our society. Our history has witnessed other "people power" movements, including the civil rights era and the Vietnam War protest era. The importance of people power and the ability of "the people" to keep the country on course was recognized by our founding fathers as being fundamental to our democracy. Thomas Jefferson, in a writing to John Adams, reflected that ""I like to see the people awake and alert. The good sense of the people will soon lead them back if they have erred in a moment of surprise." Mr. Jefferson further opined in another writing to John Dickinson, that "Our fellow citizens have been led hoodwinked from their principles by a most extraordinary combination of circumstances. But the band is removed, and they now see for themselves."
In the 2008 presidential campaign season, we were hoodwinked into believing in hope and change when the reality was - and remains - that the person making the promise of hope and change had little or no governing experience. That is the reality.
http://roadtonovember.com
http://roadtonovember.com/forum
Watch the powerful campaign video "Massachusetts Miracle" that captures the essence and importance of this Victory for America!
http://roadtonovember.com/forum/viewtopi...
xtra--Well said. I have friends that vote third party. It's a waste of time. They usually come in third. A vote for any one but a Dem or A Rep is wasted. Stay home.
Register D or R and vote in the Primary. That way you have helped choose a Candidate. If you change your mind before the Nov election you can vote anyway you want.
xtra mentioned Perot, He kept Bush 43 out of office for a 2nd term. Maybe that was good and maybe it was bad but the fact remains Clinton won with much less than half the votes.
That just isn't right.
The Republicans turned their backs on their principals the last time America got sick of the Democrats. This time it only took a year to get disgusted with the Democrats and the Republicans better listen to the people.
"SMELT?"
Ya, I usta go Smeltin' up on Lake Superior.
Those was good eatin'! They smelled kinda funny, but then, fish do!
"Someone give the Whiz a clue: Scott Brown's a politician, just like all the rest of them. He's not special, he's willing to tell you whatever you want to hear to get elected"
Ksand .. Now all you have left to figure out is that a Democrat is a politician also.
Until then you fall into the 'it's the cons no it's the libs fault' group that whines on these message boards on a daily basis,until the owners of this board get tired of the daily garbage and pull the plug.
And yes you lib/con finger pointing intellectuals are the same ones that wiped out the Yahoo and MSNBC message boards with your inane attacks.
@ gmag39,
lol. Too funny. Since we don't often see the word 'Smelt' in print I too was transported back to many a 'Smelt drinkin' weekend. Good times.lol