February packs ‘em in for convergence of conventions, events

By Richard N. Velotta

Monday, Feb. 8, 2010 | 2 a.m.

Maybe for just this one month, Las Vegas can pretend it’s not wallowing in the depths of a recession.

And why not?

Gamblers are in town for the Super Bowl; over the Presidents Day three-day weekend, lovebirds will flock in for Valentine’s Day weddings on the same day that revelers will celebrate the Chinese New Year; wholesale clothing buyers will pack up for the mammoth MAGIC apparel trade show Feb. 16 to 19; and racing enthusiasts will drive in for NASCAR Weekend Feb. 27-28.

And let’s not forget the USA Sevens International Rugby Tournament and Fan Festival on Feb. 13 to 14, an event previously held in San Diego but now finding a home at Sam Boyd Stadium, with fans flying in from New Zealand, Australia and Kenya.

The convergence of these events, and more, is expected to draw more than 350,000 tourists to town — just a fraction compared with the Februarys of healthier years but still a heartening number after 15 consecutive months of year-over-year percentage declines that finally ended in September.

According to Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority data, September, October and November showed slight percentage increases in visitors. Anecdotally, December and January, which haven’t been totaled, were strong. That means February could be the month that analysts can affirm that a trend is under way.

Anthony Curtis, president of LasVegasAdvisor.com, which tracks Las Vegas tourism and consumer deals, said February’s results will be a sign of what’s in store for the rest of the year.

“If you get a good start with the Super Bowl, you can keep the momentum,” Curtis said. “Often when things are good, they snowball. But if they’re bad, they’ll snowball as well. I think the last good Super Bowl weekend we had was in 2006. It went down in 2007 and it foreshadowed everything that happened. It was a great leading indicator.”

Curtis said this February is key because CityCenter needs to provide some of the lift MGM Mirage promised.

“It’s really important for CityCenter to show some tread,” he said. “There’s always a little New Year’s hangover in January when people are regrouping, but February is the time to regroup and CityCenter has to pick up the stride.”

Randall A. Fine, managing director of The Fine Point Group, a gaming industry analyst, said higher visitation volume is important because many people haven’t seen how the city has changed in the recession.

“A lot of people may have an image in their heads that it’s $400 a night for a room, every show is $200 and every restaurant charges $100 a plate,” Fine said. “But now, there is unquestionably great value. Every month is important to Las Vegas right now, but February is an opportunity to showcase what we have.

People “get a chance to see CityCenter and all the changes that properties have made to react to the economy,” he said. “And they’ll go home and tell their friends, ‘Wow, I got a great deal to stay at Palazzo,’ or ‘I had a really great meal at Wynn that didn’t cost as much as I thought,’ or ‘I got half-off show tickets.’ And their friends will say, ‘Wow, Vegas has become affordable, I should go.’ ”

Boosting visitation is more important than ever because not only is Las Vegas clawing through the down economy, but the city now has more hotel rooms than ever before.

With the opening of the M Resort, new towers at the Golden Nugget and Hard Rock Hotel and CityCenter in 2009, the city now has nearly 149,000 rooms — about 6 percent more than a year ago.

Also of concern to the resort industry is the state of the average daily room rate.

For the first 11 months of 2009, the LVCVA estimated the average rate at just more than $93, or 23.1 percent below what it was at the end of 2008.

Dan Hippler, vice president of marketing for VEGAS.com, is projecting 5 percent increase in visitors in February over last year and a 2 percent increase in the average room rate to around $92, slightly under the 2009 average, based on his analysis of visitor volume and room rates.

(VEGAS.com, which sells hotel rooms and tourism packages, is owned by The Greenspun Corporation, which also owns the Las Vegas Sun.)

“We’re seeing a really strong Valentine’s Day weekend with volume up 10 to 11 percent (over last year), partially because it’s over the three-day weekend this year and it also includes Chinese New Year,” Hippler said. “The days leading up to the Super Bowl showed the same trend.”

Hippler said weeks ago, it looked like room rates for Super Bowl weekend were going to be down from last year, but in the days leading up to it, rates have gone up, reflecting increasing demand.

The opening of CityCenter seems to be driving increased interest in Las Vegas, Hippler said.

For all the analyses that go into projecting February tourist traffic, Lynn Morris need only look at her cash register receipts from over the years.

She owns Bonanza Gifts, The World’s Largest Gift Shop on the corner of Sahara Avenue and the Strip, and says the February boost is a pattern that has existed for the 45 years she has been in the souvenir business.

“February is always a good month for us,” said Morris, who sells thousands of T-shirts and key chains at her store to tourists because they’re so easy to take home.

Morris, whose list of past customers includes Cindy Crawford, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Condoleezza Rice, said she is one of Las Vegas’ biggest cheerleaders and is rooting for a big month to turn the city’s fortunes around.

“It may be more important than ever, considering what the city has gone through,” she said.

This month’s convention calendar is filled with well-attended, high-profile shows, some of which wrapped up last week. Four blockbuster conventions kicked off the month:

• The World Shoe Association Spring Show (Feb. 2 to 4) was scheduled to bring 25,000 people to the Mandalay Bay Convention Center and the Sands Expo & Convention Center.

• Surfaces 2010 (Feb. 2 to 4), a show featuring floor covering companies, was to bring 25,000 people to a different portion of the Sands Expo.

• The World Market Center Winter Las Vegas Market (Feb. 1 to 5), a major furniture exposition, forecast attendance of 50,000 at the World Market Center complex in downtown Las Vegas.

• World of Concrete 2010 (Feb. 2 to 5), a trade show dedicated to the commercial concrete and masonry construction industries, was scheduled to have 65,000 people at the Las Vegas Convention Center.

One of the city’s perennial big trade shows — MAGIC International Spring Show (Feb. 16 to 19) — will fill the Las Vegas Convention Center with a projected 75,000 people. MAGIC, formerly known as Men’s Apparel Guild in California, is a massive fashion-industry trade show that meets in Las Vegas twice a year.

The month will close with the semiannual Associated Surplus Dealers-Associated Merchandise Dealers show (Feb. 28 to March 3) at the Las Vegas Convention Center and Sands Expo. The event is expected to bring in 40,000 people.