Ensign may need divine intervention to survive

Friday, Dec. 3, 2010 | 2:01 a.m.

John Ensign has always been a true believer, especially in himself.

But after the past two weeks, he really must think God has blessed him with invincibility as two investigations have ebbed, and he surely sees his re-election prospects brightening.

This calls for a prayer session over at C Street — aka Adulterer’s Corner: Praise the Lord and pass the lobbyist money.

Ensign told one outlet that the Justice Department has terminated its probe of his dealings in the wake of his creepy affair with his wife’s best friend who also was his best friend’s wife (that phrase always seems to cry out for an exclamation point) was an “early Christmas present.” Jesus is looking out for the senator, it seems, despite his dalliance with staffer Cynthia Hampton, the now-sanctioned (by the Federal Election Commission) parental payoff (part of that “pattern of generosity” he had claimed) and subsequent sick search for employment for Doug Hampton and arm-twisting of senatorial supplicants.

Forgive him, Father; he knew not what he did.

Let us descend from Mount Delusion for a moment, dear friends, to talk reality for a moment. Ensign’s negatives are in the Reidosphere — no criminal charges but forever indicted as a morally superior hypocrite — but that is where the analogy ends. Unlike Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Ensign cannot count on a fantastic campaign team or a well-funded party that will be at his beck and call. Oh, and there’s the little matter of a primary with Rep. Dean Heller, who would not be the candidate in the race who voted for the 2008 bailout, a Tea Party litmus test.

“The latest Ensign news has not changed Heller’s thinking on the race,” one source close to the congressman said. “Ensign will have a very difficult time in a general. Republicans will need to put their best candidate forward in a presidential turnout year. Heller is a stronger general election candidate.”

But it’s not just Heller boosters who believe/know this. The folks over at the National Republican Senatorial Committee do, too. At some point, Texas Sen. John Cornyn may tap Ensign on the shoulder and tell him the news: You’re not our man.

But will Heller be?

As I have said, the congressman is well aware of political timing and knows when to run and when not to. So often these decisions are not just about political factors — Heller is close to incoming Speaker John Boehner, he is in the majority for the first time, the House GOP ranks probably will grow in 2012. But Heller also has a large family and his wife, Lynn, has a large influence on him. The personal can trump the political.

So I think Heller, who I believe wants badly to run and does not like Ensign, will evaluate the atmospherics, personal and political, and decide by 2011’s midpoint.

It will also be fascinating to watch Reid, who probably remains thankful that then-Secretary of State Heller halted a recount of his narrow 1998 victory over Ensign. What goes around comes around in Nevada politics, and the names are usually the same.

Reid also can’t be thrilled that Ensign was more active than people thought in Sharron Angle’s campaign, including playing Reid in her debate preparation. Reid does not forget such things.

My guess is the majority leader is not thrilled with the prospect of Rep. Shelley Berkley as the Democratic standard-bearer — he probably questions her ability to win statewide. But if she gets in — I’d say it’s 50/50 — he just might go all-in with her and figure even if Berkley loses, he and Heller can start a new bond — goodbye Harry Ensign, hello Harry Heller. Reid is ever-adaptable, too.

Ensign also has the Senate Ethics Committee to contend with, and his colleagues could either go harder now that they are unfettered by DOJ or, perhaps more likely, go the Rangel route.

One bellwether of Ensign’s viability, and one document that will determine whether the vultures stop swirling and begin to descend, is the senator’s end-of-the-year fundraising report. As one wry wag put it, “I think we would have to see if there is a pattern of generosity to follow” his exoneration by DOJ.

God willing, Ensign will have a respectable fourth quarter. If not, perhaps he and Angle ought to get on that exclusive line they have to the Lord and decide what the alternative plan should be for 2012.

My guess is the man upstairs might advise Ensign, with apologies to the Ozark Mountain Daredevils, “If you want to get to heaven, you better raise a little Heller.”