A look at betting NFC win totals

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Aug. 12, 2010 | 2:05 a.m.

The New Orleans Saints used a prolific offense last season to roll through their opponents, finish 13-3 and ultimately win the Super Bowl.

But to some sports bettors, there are more important factors when analyzing the Saints' prospects for the 2010 season.

New Orleans went 5-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown in 2009, perhaps meaning luck regularly was on its side. Also, no team has repeated as NFC South champions in the eight years since the NFL re-aligned the divisions.

Most Las Vegas sports books have posted over/under season win totals for each of the 32 NFL teams. Not surprisingly, Las Vegas has assigned the Saints one of the highest numbers.

The M lists the Saints over/under regular-season win total at 10.5. According to Vegas Insider's Brian Edwards, that might be too high.

"I like the Saints to go under," Edwards said. "I've got them going 9-7, getting off to a good start but it's hard for anyone with four out of five on the road late in the year, including a game on Thanksgiving. All four of those games they could lose."

New Orleans plays at Dallas, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Atlanta within 32 days of each other in November and December. That's the stretch that concerns Edwards.

Edwards goes through each team's schedule every year before the season and projects their record after looking at each game. He only makes a wager if his record is a game and a half different than the one oddsmakers put out.

Edwards recommended this method to all casual bettors in Las Vegas.

"If you're on top of it and have done your research and know what every team has done in the draft and free agency, that's the information you need," Edwards said. "And I think you get down and dirty and make a big play if you have a two-game cushion."

In the NFC, Edwards' work also revealed a play on the under 5.5 wins for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and over 9 wins for the Atlanta Falcons.

The M lists the Buccaneers under at a price of +105 (risking $1 to win $1.05) and the Falcons over at -110 (risking $1.10 to win $1).

"The defense was really the problem with Atlanta last year, but they shored it up by signing Dunta Robinson from the Texans," Edwards said. "Also, their first-round pick last year, Peria Jerry, was great at Ole Miss but got hurt in the second game, and so did Brian Williams, their starting corner. Those were two starters gone almost the entire year."

Win totals have become the talk of the NFL preseason in Las Vegas since they were invented 20 years ago by current Lucky's sports book director Jimmy Vaccaro.

In a recent ESPN.com podcast, Vaccaro explained that the idea happened as a mistake. A friend from Texas wanted to bet on how Dallas would fare in the 1989 season.

Vaccaro offered him an over/under total of 5.5 wins for the Cowboys and the man took it for a $38,500 wager.

Word of the bet spread and sports books began offering them for every team. Regular-season win-total bets seem to have increased in popularity every year since.

"It's seen as an easier way to make money," said Mike Colbert, director of The M race and sports book. "Especially the sharper guys really like the win totals. It's nothing we're going to make a lot of money off of."

Dallas failed to go over the total that year, finishing 1-15. Edwards likes Dallas to eclipse The M's line of 9.5 wins this season.

But the price is listed at -180 (risking $1.80 to win $1), and Edwards warned against paying too much juice.

"That makes it a no-play for me on the over," Edwards said. "I've got to be really strong on a win total, because the money is tied up until January. But I like (the Cowboys) to go 11-5."

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.