Predicting Reid’s political future a challenge

By Jon Ralston

Friday, April 30, 2010 | 2:01 a.m.

Harry Reid is dead, one in an occasional series:

Could it be that no matter how chicken Sue Lowden is to back off Bartergate, no matter if she should propose a chicken in every pot as her solution to the economic crisis, that the unpopular Senate majority leader simply cannot be saved, even by his leading opponent? Or is Reid, who flexes his monetary muscle today by blanketing the airwaves with a new ad campaign, showing signs of life, as one poll and some national media folks postulate?

Three weeks and a day until early voting begins, and a blizzard of developments in the marquee Senate race of 2010 (it’s true, for Crist’s sake) are worth cataloging and analyzing, especially when a month ago the conventional wisdom was simple: Lowden was a near-lock to win the GOP nomination and a favorite to oust Reid, who could only survive by barbecuing her (don’t worry, no chicken joke coming) as an out-of-touch elitist who doesn’t understand the troubles of ordinary folks.

Then came the bartering-is-good beginning and the not-back-down-from-that-system middle as a chorus of national derision reached a crescendo. And suddenly, the world has turned upside down for Lowden, even though her campaign appears not to comprehend it, and the anything-is-possible scenarios are gaining currency.

Danny Tarkanian, who has struggled with a gravitas issue, and has been dismissed by Lowden’s handlers as a mere nuisance, turned the tables Thursday by publicizing her appearance on a Reno newscast, unable to explain her stubborn refusal to retreat from Bartergate.

“Watch this video and ask yourself if Sue Lowden is prepared to run against Harry Reid,” a Tarkanian news release said. Thus he turned on its head the conventional wisdom, privately adopted until recently by now-skittish national Republicans, that Lowden is the strongest general election contender against Reid.

A poll conducted by Research 2000 this week for the liberal blog, Daily Kos, showed Tarkanian within 10 percentage points of Lowden — 38-28, and Tea Party darling Sharron Angle with 13 percent. That would seem to indicate Bartergate has hurt Lowden, although some will question the findings because of where they appeared. (Research 2000 is nonpartisan and has done polling for many newspapers.)

The poll also found Reid essentially in a dead heat with all three GOP contenders, which is an outlier because no other survey has found that result. Indeed, a Rasmussen poll also released Thursday showed all three GOP hopefuls with solid leads over Reid — Lowden by 13, Tarkanian by 10 and Angle by 8.

The fact is that no one really knows what the June 8 GOP universe will look like and predicting the Nov. 2 electoral matrix is even more difficult this far out. But what’s manifestly true is many people don’t like Reid — he has a 53 percent unfavorable rating in the Daily Kos poll, and 47 percent in the Rasmussen poll said they had a “very unfavorable” view of Reid.

Reid can’t turn those numbers around — I don’t know what the time frame is for voters to fall in love with the majority leader, but clearly six months is not enough. But people do want their health care and most don’t think starting a chicken farm in the backyard is the answer.

Sometimes, if allowed to fester without being knocked down, issues out of left field define candidates. I have previously invoked the 1988 U.S. Senate race, when allegations that Gov. Richard Bryan had a “private jet” almost derailed his cinch candidacy against vulnerable incumbent Chic Hecht. But Lowden has not just refused to acknowledge Page One of the campaign playbook — “An attack unanswered is an attack accepted” — she has done the opposite: Embraced the assault and refused to parry it.

Imagine if Bryan, 22 years ago, had declared: “I have a private jet. All governors deserve one. And I won’t back down from that system.” Hecht might have won another term.

And as one veteran observer pointed out, the notion that a private jet, as overhyped as it was, infuriated people because it reinforced the perception that high-ranking politicians are different from you and me. But health care is a much more personal issue and Bartergate, which has much more verisimilitude than the private jet allegation ever did, also has much more capacity to damage Lowden.

A headline in the capital publication Roll Call on Thursday said: “Reid seems to have his groove back.” The piece mentioned the GOP relenting on the financial reform filibuster but also noted Bartergate.

Harry Reid has seemed quite dead for some time. But if the Republicans nationally and locally continue to play Pogo politics, this occasional series will have a surprise ending.