Celebrity/media NFL picks Week Three

By Sal DeFilippo

Saturday, Sept. 26, 2009 | 8:56 p.m.

Whoever said statistics don’t lie should really take a good look at a couple of games from last week.

Let’s start with those tricky Oakland Raiders, who last week somehow parlayed a 243-yard deficit in yards gained from scrimmage and 17 fewer minutes of possession time into a 13-10 victory at Kansas City. Chiefs fans must be scratching their scalped heads wondering how they could have amassed 409 yards and scored only 10 points in the process.

Well, one way is to use up nine minutes and 25 seconds on a 17-play drive, and settle for a field goal. That’s what Kansas City did to take an early lead in the first quarter. Another is to blow a huge opportunity right before halftime. With the score tied 3-3, Kansas City was at Oakland’s 9-yard line with 14 seconds remaining, with no timeouts. Matt Cassel threw a pass toward the sideline, but Dantrell Savage was unable to get out of bounds. Despite the Chiefs’ frantic efforts to line up and spike the ball, time ran out. Cinderella managed the clock better than that.

Still, when Kansas City scored on a 29-yard touchdown pass from Cassel to Dwayne Bowe – more yards than Oakland gained on any play in the game -- with 2:45 left to take a 10-6 lead, the Chiefs seemed to be in control. The Raiders had precisely 100 total yards of offense at that point and the 69 yards separating Oakland from the end zone after the ensuing kickoff seemed unattainable. But the Raiders marched downfield and scored the game-winning touchdown.

How anemic was Oakland? They became the second team since 1997 to win a game with a quarterback who threw 20 or more passes, yet completed less than 30 percent of those tosses (Reputed quarterback JaMarcus Russell had some control issues – he was off-target on his first five throws and eventually missed on 17 of his 24 passes). It was also the first time in the 50-year history of the proud franchise that they were outgained by more than 200 yards but still managed to just win, baby.

Then, on Monday night, the Indianapolis Colts pulled a similar illusionary act. Despite controlling the ball for less than one quarter, Peyton Manning and company rallied to beat the Miami Dolphins 27-23.

Miami played keep-away for most of the game, chewing up the clock with 239 rushing yards and the effective short passing game of Chad Pennington. But unlike the Raiders, when the Colts did get the ball, they had little trouble moving it – and quickly. The opening play of the game was a precursor – an 80-yard touchdown pass from Manning to Dallas Clark.

Manning’s 48-yard touchdown to Pierre Garcon with 3:29 left capped a time-consuming 32-play drive to win the game. Indianapolis’ possession time of 14 minutes, 53 seconds was the least by any team to win an NFL game since 1977 – I’m not sure, but I think that was before the shot clock was implemented.

Regardless of how they got it done, the Colts and Raiders will surely tell you there’s really only one stat that counts – whether you win or lose.

Sal’s picks: Of course, in Vegas, it’s not about whether you win or lose, but whether you cover the point spread. A 2-1 week for me at least puts a few games in the W column. The season mark of 2-4 is still ugly, but we’ll see if we can improve on it this week with the Patriots-Falcons over 44½, the Bears -2 at the Seahawks and the Saints-Bills over 52½.

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The media/celebrity picks:

Lance Burton, Monte Carlo master magician (3-3)

Dolphins +6 at Chargers

Cowboys -9½ vs. Panthers

Jets -2½ vs. Titans

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Anthony Crivello, star of "Phantom -- Las Vegas Spectacular" (4-2)

Lions +6½ vs. Redskins

Saints -6 at Bills

Colts +2 at Cardinals

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Carrot Top, Luxor headliner (4-2)

Saints -6 at Bills

Bears -2 at Seahawks

Cowboys -9½ vs. Panthers

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Terry Fator, Mirage headliner (2-4)

Jets-Titans over 37

Steelers-Bengals over 37

Vikings -7 vs. 49ers

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Oscar Goodman, mayor of Las Vegas (3-3)

Jets -2½ vs. Titans

Giants -7 at Buccaneers

Saints -6 at Bills

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Ryan Greene, Las Vegas Sun sports writer (1-5)

Bears -2 at Seahawks

Saints -6 at Bills

Raiders -1½ vs. Broncos

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Alicia Jacobs, KVBC entertainment reporter (4-2)

Jaguars +4 at Texans

Colts +2 at Cardinals

Titans +2½ at Jets

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Kevin Janison, KVBC meteorologist (2-4)

Bears -2 at Seahawks

Saints -6 at Bills

Broncos-Raiders under 36

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Christine Killimayer, 702.tv Sports Anchor (4-2)

Lions +6½ vs. Redskins

Browns +13½ at Ravens

Cowboys-Panthers over 46

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Wayne Newton, "Mr. Las Vegas" (4-2)

Cowboys -9½ vs. Panthers

Seahawks +2 vs. Bears

Vikings-49ers under 40 ½

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Frank Caliendo’s Fantasy Studs of the Week

Aaron Rodgers, Packers; Andre Johnson, Texans and Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars

“The Rams have fewer prime-time quality performers than even NBC. Go with Aaron Rodgers. And in a game featuring less defense than a Swiss cabinet meeting, Andre Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew will light it up!”

Last week’s rating: FIELD GOAL! Frank chose two players last week, and Peyton Manning’s 303-yard performance with two touchdowns was solid, but Clinton Portis only tallied a pedestrian 79 yards rushing and nine receiving without a score.