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twitterThe economy:
Nevada’s jobless rate could hit 17 percent
Photos by Steve Marcus
Soon-to-be employees check in at CityCenter Career Center on Sept. 21.
Fri, Sep 25, 2009 (3 a.m.)
Sun Archives
- 160,000 applications later, CityCenter makes job offers (9-21-2009)
- Early indicator -- temp jobs -- shows signs of a recovery (9-14-2009)
- Federal land sales to create jobs (9-11-2009)
- Economic diversity, new jobs are essential, leaders say (9-4-2009)
Sun Coverage
One of the state’s leading economists forecast the jobless rate reaching 17 percent before it begins to decline.
The worse-case scenario is the jobless rate reaching 17 percent, said Keith Schwer, director of UNLV’s Business and Economic Research Center, who gave the most pessimistic estimate.
“Every business cycle is different,” Schwer said. “But because of (Las Vegas’) national recovery lag, coming out of the recession is likely longer than we’ve seen in the past.”
Economist John Restrepo said he expects 15 percent to 16 percent in the jobless rate, and economist Brian Gordon was the most conservative, estimating the rate peaking at 15 percent.
Although national indicators are pointing to an economic recovery for much of the U.S., few glimmers of job creation are on Las Vegas’ horizon.
A few gaming properties or expansions are opening through the end of the year, including the new towers at downtown Las Vegas’ Golden Nugget, the off-Strip Hard Rock and, of course, CityCenter.
The massive project has started notifying some non-MGM Mirage applicants that they will soon have jobs.
After the major job projects, more construction workers will loss their jobs, said Gordon, principal at Applied Analysis. However, there will be some demand in the gaming sector, because the hospitality sector is operating with tight staffing levels, he said.
“It’s not expected to be the boon it once was,” Gordon said.
Timing is everything, Schwer said, and Las Vegas’ economy needs visitors’ discretionary spending to increase.
As workers regain stable employment elsewhere, Las Vegas could be in for a slow recovery because people may be taking money once used as discretionary spending and tucking it away in savings and retirement accounts, said Restrepo, principal of Restrepo Consulting Group.
“When you have an economy that is largely reliant on discretionary spending, you’re going to have a lag,” he said.
Then again, considering how well the federal Cash for Clunkers program went — consumers responded eagerly to trading in their old, fuel-inefficient cars for new, higher mileage cars — it could soon be “business as usual,” an optimistic Schwer said.
If one were to consider other factors, such as those workers who have just given up or have had their full-time hours cut to part time, the jobless rate is probably at 20 percent or one-fifth of the workforce.
Restrepo said that figure, largely unreported, could hit 23 percent.
Another factor to consider, Restrepo said: job recovery.
As the local economy recovers, the jobless rate could hover around 10 percent for two years before returning to the pre-recession level that wavered around 5 percent, he said.
Las Vegas’ jobless rate increased 91.4 percent year-over-year, from 7 percent to 13.4 percent, according to the state’s Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department. During that period, the state’s jobless rate went up 88.5 percent, from 7 percent to 13.2 percent.
The national rate has had a slower climb, up 56.5 percent, from 6.2 percent in August 2008 to 9.7 percent last month.
A recovery may be in the cards for the U.S., but the state will lag, chief state employment economist Bill Anderson said.
“Some analysts even argue that the recession is likely over, or will be in the near-term,” he said in a statement. “However, such positive conclusions cannot be drawn in Nevada, based upon a current assessment of labor market and economic activity in the state.”
The state has lost 84,400 jobs the past year, including 31,000 construction jobs and 24,000 hospitality jobs.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits are up 11,000 for August, gaming wins are down $250 million and taxable sales have fallen $1.1 billion.
At a meeting with Las Vegas businessowners Sept. 22, Anderson said the state’s unemployment trust fund will be depleted by mid to late October, forcing the state to borrow from the federal government. Laidoff workers are eligible for 79 weeks of jobless benefit. The first 26 weeks are paid for by the state, the rest by the feds.
The state’s nine-member Employment Security Council will meet at 10 a.m. Oct. 6 in Carson City to determine the unemployment insurance tax rate for next year and to weigh options. In Las Vegas, a video feed will be at the Sawyer State Office Building, Room 4406.
The national jobless rate in August was 9.7 percent, up from 9.4 percent the month prior, according to the Labor Statistics Bureau. Michigan, whose auto industry has been hard, had the highest rate at 15.2 percent. Nevada was second.
Discussion: 36 comments so far…
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We can all count on Uncle Harry to save the day, Can't we?
LIke we didn't know this already?
Can anyone tell me what Governor Gibbons is doing about unemployment?
las vegas has turned its back on the budget traveler.
they tore down the new frontier and the stardust leaving only the riviera ( complete dump ) and circus circus ( cheesy ) as places on the strip for someone on a budget to stay.
add $9.00 for a beer, $25.00 for boil in bag pasta, and slot machines that almost never pay out...ya...i can't wait to come to vegas.
Think for a few minutes. When Obamacare passes most people will have less discretionary spending and IF it helps others they are not going to be those coming to Las Vegas.
When Cap and Trade passes most people will have less discretionary spending and IF anyone is helped they will not be those coming to Las Vegas.
When the "Bush tax cuts" expire next year most people that visit Las Vegas will have less discretionary spending.
All things being pushed by the administration are going to destroy Las Vegas. What I don't understand is why our Senator is so in bed with the plans?? Why harry? Why do you hate our state.
All things being pushed by the administration are going to destroy Las Vegas.
That's assuming a little much here. People aren't spending money to come to Vegas because why should they? Gambling? Less than a 2 hr drive from where anyone lives in the United States. Discretionary spending? Maybe a new car is needed, or the roof needs to be replaced, the kids' tuition needs to be paid, bills need to paid or maybe that 10 day cruise or the 7 days at an all inclusive resort in the Bahamas (and both include gambling) is more enticing and for much less money than a 3-day weekend in Vegas and most important: I wonder how long I will keep my job? Even if people did have money to spend, I'm sure Vegas is on the short list of things to spend it on.
Has nothing to do with the current administration. Why does everyone forget that all this mess didn't just suddenly start in January of 2009.
Dear Neiman - who are you in bed with? Your messages look like they were written by the extremely far right! To see the problems in this state you can look to the governor baboon and other characters. Some of us (self included) are in this state because it doesn't tax - the result is horrid services. Obama care as you call it - will lower health care costs once there is responsibility assigned for the cost of care. And besides then the health care companies will have to quit rationing services and killing people. Wouldn't that be a great wonderful amazingly good change? Life always has two or more sides. Keep your head up and look forward!
Only 17%??
Thank you both so much DetMunch and revtomperl!!!! It is refreshing to see that there are educated people out here. I usually read these comments for a laugh because I cannot believe some people thinking and the comments they write. I feel like I am back in the south sometimes.
Much like you said the administration has less to do with our problems than "Corporate America". And things did not fall off a cliff suddenly on the 21st of January.
I think it is time for Michael Moore to do a documentary on Vegas and the casino giants. Let the real stories come out.
Have you ever noticed how a good percentage of people who are deep on the Left, say things like:
It is refreshing to see that there are educated people out there.
You aint educated, or you would know that there is good for you.
Them there people over thar are all too dumb to be educated.
Listen to me, because I am educated in that there big school in the city.
If you aint educated, you aint smart enough to talk to me.
If you ask "What is an educated person?" They say "A person that thinks like me."
If you want a discussion with one of them there "education people," go to the NVLV web site and write to one of them professors.
Could some moron like Baby Tark, who neve held office, be is Fed money to keep unemployment going?
And the "Pointless Post of the Day" award goes to...
LARRY VEGAS!!!!
Meanwhile, DetMunch, Revto and Felix are on the mark. Because no, this gargantuan mess our economy is in was NOT brought to us by Obama -it happened with W asleep at the switch, along with all his bobble-head fans like Larry and Neimie.
However, if you enjoy health costs that grow in leaps and bounds each and every year with no end in sight, even as 50,000,000 Americans aren't covered at all; if you relish the thought of paying off for the rest of your lives -and your children's lives- the massive deficits put on the credit card by W; and if the pointless death and carnage of young Americans and Iraqis for a completely phony, trumped up war is your cup of tea; then yes, don't point the finger at W, the man who screwed over this nation. Just like Neimie, mindlessly recite the far-right's talking points as they are fed to you, and scapegoat President Obama for stuff he couldn't have caused, even if he tried.
In Nevada, the way the state constitution is written, the office of the governor is powerless to do much in the arena of employment, and lately, unemployment. The governor's hands are tied by law. The legislature that writes bills and enacts law in the state has a huge say so in how the state can affect jobs and job markets, and attract middle class jobs in the 70-100K range to the state. I don't think the leftwing liberals in the legislature and even some moderate to conservative lawmakers are interested in attracting companies that can fill the bill in employment. You will always see stories like this one, where a casino and entertainment company is filling jobs that tend to go away in bad times occurring in that particular industry.
Several years ago, we had several big companies (Levi's for one example) that set up shop right here in Clark County! But somehow our supposed great business tax incentives for companies to relocate here all seemed to sputter & dry up, and then all these companies all moved out--heading for greener pastures.
We need to make Nevada more enticing again for big companies to move out here and give us jobs that are not dependent on tourism & related (gaming & construction)
Only then will we be able to beat these unemployment figures.
Why does our government STILL give out 160,000 green cards to foriegn workers EVERY MONTH???
http://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusabl...
Sincityguy,
Here, here!
I would be surprised if it only hits 17%
You guys are finished. Scottsdale is the new Vegas.
Okay you idiot tree huggers. Obama promised to put people to work when he signed the stimulus bill, the only jobs created were for you welfare blood sucking lazy people.
This idiot funded welfare and other programs that enable your laziness' to continue so all of you can continue to suck off the system. You're the problem with America today and until your lazy bungers leave, it's only going to get worse. It is you people that are destroying America and turning America into a human cesspool.
We're sick and tired of you lunatics whining and crying what we're not doing for you. Hopefully unemployment in Nevada hits 80% and all you blood suckers leave or become a one of the ones holding "Will Work for Food" signs. When one of these occur those of who choose to work and support ourselves can sit back and ask you "How is Obama working for you". Enjoy being broke and sucking off the system, the system is going broke and your benefits are just about over with. The working class is sick of you and we're voting your programs out of office in 2010 and 2012.
DJT states that 50 million Americans are without health insurance.
I guess JTD is counting illegal residents as "Americans." And of course he rounded it up by several million.
There are some simple fixes to get health coverage for those AMERICANS who need it.
But the Obama Administration doesn't want simple fixes, they want a complete government takeover of our health care system to further advance their socialist agenda.
"There are some simple fixes..."
Only a simple mind thinks the fixes are simple.
"I guess JTD is counting illegal residents as "Americans."
Wrong again. I do NOT believe the American taxpayer should be paying for illegal immigrants. In fact, curbing illegal immigration would go a LONG way to reducing health care costs in America. Because as everybody knows, illegals go directly to our emergency rooms and consume the most expensive, least efficient kind of health care there is. And then, of course, they don't pay their bills.
BUT, factoring in illegals would only make the number of uninsured WELL OVER the 50 mil I cite. No Vegas, I wasn't "rounding up by several million." Statistics based on last year's guessimates had put the number of uninsured AMERICAN CITIZENS at roughly 46.5 million. But that was a snapshot in time and doesn't reflect all the people who have continued to lose jobs and health insurance. It's a moving target. And it's continuing to get worse. Estimates have been that 2010 numbers of the uninsured will be 52 million. If we're not at my number of 50 mil right about now, we're right around it.
Its2Hot,
For someone who calls everybody else an "idiot," you come off as quite the feeble-minded.
That the economy was trashed by you and W is Obama's fault? And make up your mind. You get up on your soap box and complain like a dope about "jobs created for you welfare blood sucking lazy people." So are you complaining about "lazy people" getting jobs and going to work? You prefer they don't work? But of course, if they are going to work, how are they "lazy" anyway? More importantly bright boy, where are all these jobs you just assume they should be working at? Where, pray tell? In your feeble-mind, fed the slop by right-wing interest groups that manipulate and exploit you as the foolish, gullible foot soldier that you are, might it occur to you that there's a severe recession going on and that hard-working Americans who never took a dime of welfare in their lives, now can't find a job even though they want to work badly??
Turn off Faux News, take a bath, and step outside to smell the fresh air. It's gotta beat smelling and inhaling your own foul air.
Sorry DTJ, I guess that 30 million is close to 50 million.
The important thing is that out of this approximately 30 million, half or about 15 million could afford health insurance but desire not to. That leaves us about 15 million or about 5% of the population that needs help. Let get them all on Medicaid immediately and base their premiums on their ability to pay...
DJT:
I love it when your lunatics open and speak; it just reaffirms why not to vote for liberals.
Work is plentiful out in the USA, that's all people have to do is leave their comfort zone and look outside the box. I know many people in the construction industry who have lefts their wives here at home and now travel for the week and come home 4-days a month or whatever they can afford. They've kept their homes here, pay their mortgages, and don't whine and complain about what others aren't doing for them. It's a choice to stay stagnant and work local or get off their lazy bungers and think outside the box.
Go to Monster.com, careerbuilder.com, constructionjobs.com, and many other career sites and the can find work. Stop whining and complaining about what others aren't doing and do for you. Unemployment is a choice, you either choose to create your own income or rely on others to create your own destiny. If you rely others then by all means, produce every day and don't become complacent or comfortable with your job. Work every day like it was your first day on the job and you'll be employed for life.
Don't feed me the lunatics way of life, I'm not a democrat and don't plan on ever converting to their way of thinking. I choose to be accountable for my choices and choose to create my own happiness. I surely don't want any handouts and I don't want the government poking their greedy hands in my pocketbook to take care of their career blood sucking welfare recipients. I have no use nor do I care if what happens to these people, they're useless and worthless.
its2hot obviously hasn't been looking for work lately.
people get LAID OFF, moron. the whirlpool factory in evansville, indiana is CLOSING...moving the jobs to mexico. so did "working every day like it's your first day" keep those workers employed?
no.
Stevem and DetMunch
We don't agree on a lot of things but you are both making me proud and happy today!! Vegas isn't dead, but the Strip casinos do need to rethink their plans for revenue. Downtown has gotten the message and they seem to be flourishing. However, our neighboring states have also gotten the message and opened casino/resorts of their own. Why go out for burgers, when you can make 'em at home?? We either gotta come up with better incentive prices or a new way to bring income into the Valley.
Larry,
You're flat wrong with the 30 mil. figure, and even more off base making up out of thin air the "half or about 15 million could afford health insurance but desire not to." You can't back up those stats, and you and I both know it.
That said, ..."the population that needs help. Let get them all on Medicaid immediately and base their premiums on their ability to pay."
Well, okay then. That's one positive solution. If the numbers crunch the best doing it this way of yours, then I'm with you. I'm no fan of socialism at all, and only want the most practical solution that will help the genuinely needy. Build "the wall" and cut off illegal immigration. Then as you say, means test the rest who will receive Medicare, or whatever form it comes in. I could go along with this.
True Story:
A bunch of Its2Hots got stranded on a deserted island, in spite of themselves figured out the facts of life, and managed to populate that island. One day, natives on the neighboring island rounded up all their mentally enfeebled and brain-dead inhabitants, put them on a raft, and sent them over to the Its2Hot island. With this singular gesture, the mean IQ of both islands was instantly raised.
Again, that was a true story.
Not2Hot, you've never met me, know nothing about me, yet you're imbecilic enough to make all your presumptions. To wit: I'm "liberal," a "democrat(sic)," I'm "whining and complaining about what others aren't doing and do for you." WHEN HAVE I EVER DONE THIS? WHEN? WHERE?
I've never asked anyone for anything. You have a stupid cartoonish understanding of the world. I'm a libertarian and registered Republican. Wrap your microscopic mind around THAT. (BTW, when you post" I'm not a democrat," you don't even realize the stupidity of your own mistake.) You're just like Rush Limbaugh, another fraud who spent years living off welfare (just then have to audacity/stupidity to lecture others on individual responsibility -even as he, himself, proceeded to become a serial divorcer and a drug addict). You need make-believe villains in the world you can look down upon to feel better about yourself. So now you attack me and try to fit me into your cartoon world, all because I reject your slurring of everybody who can't find work as being "lazy."
I never said I was out of work. Who knows? Maybe tomorrow I will be. But it wouldn't be because I didn't want to work. And your a LIAR about knowing people going to work in construction in other parts of the country, leaving their families here, behind. I've actually worked in construction and know the truth. Vegas is where all the travelers CAME TO WORK; not LEFT FOR WORK, you liar. Construction is the deadest of industries all throughout the U.S. Everybody knows that. For a while, at least there was work in Vegas. But there is NO construction work now anywhere. And even if a meager job or two is to be found, no way in hell any out-of-towners get that work. Locals always get hired first. If you weren't busy lying to us, and had half an ounce of any useful knowledge, you would have known that.
And don't give me that crap about searching Monster.com., or "Work is plentiful out in the USA." Yet another bald-faced lie. There are 10 applicants for every opening, when you can find one. Millions upon millions are unemployed right now because employers are laying people off. And the hemorrhaging of jobs hasn't yet stopped. Again, everybody else KNOWS THIS. Times are tough. People are suffering. They don't need some zero like you going around sticking his finger in their eyes, just because you feel inadequate about yourself and need to create imaginary villains you can shoot down to make the pain go away.
Almost done with you. One more: in your earler post, out of nowhere you lobbed your poison, "You're the problem with America today and until your lazy bungers leave..." In fact it is YOU, Its2Hot, who is the un-American and antisocial disease that the rest of us are enduring.
This isn't liberal vs. conservative, Democrat vs. Republican. This is decent American folk, vs. Its2Hot the un-American, and his diseased ilk.
Alright, in the light of the day, I wish to apologize to Its2Hot and everyone else, for the tone we both used. I vehemently disagree with Its2Hot, but we're all in this together. The taking up sides and then bashing the "other guys" over the head can be fun for a while. But then it just devolves into unconstructive fights and nobody wins. America has serious issues to confront and our biggest enemies are NOT each other.
Just thought I'd get this out there.
DJT:
Love your reply and post. One just has to love the stupidity of others. Look in the mirror and keep telling yourself whatever it you do. It must be working for you. Jobs do exist, if they're not working then it's a choice. Work at McDonalds or better yet, move to Pahrump where it is legal and open up, it pays well and is the oldest profession and accepted by many. Tourist come to Nevada to for relieve and will never see them again.
Wake up, it is the lunatics destroying America and spending trillions on their slow dumb and lazy followers. It isn't a lie, welcome to the land of Obama and clan. Goes to show the ignorance of people, denying what is smacking them upside the head, it can't be true, Obama told me so or better yet, CNN, NBC, MSNBC, and all the other bias news outlets told me so. Get out in the real world; Obama and clan are idiots along with the rest of their followers.
You guys want some gloves or bats or something?
A yard of concrete and a boat ride will work just fine.
Its2Hot,
You let the heat beat you. Now get out of the sun, you're seeing mirages.
I am a 44 year old business man that is the owner of a very successful business. My wife and I have raised our kids and they are either married or in college. We have really enjoyed our trips to Las Vegas in recent years. Although I agree with some of the posters in regards to the changes that have taken place in las vegas, that is not the topic of this post.
Today I had to tell ten of my long time employees that they would not be working for the next two weeks due to a lack of business. We are one of the last businesses in our industry in our area to be hit by this economic situation.
The point of my post is to give a real life example of one of the many reasons that Las Vegas is suffering. Most employees in this country are more concerned with making their house payment and providing for their families. We in Texas feel very fortunate because we are aware that many parts of the country have suffered much more than we have.
The one thing that is really difficult to face is that a trip to Las Vegas has nothing to do with what we really need to survive and thrive. Unfortunately, this will have a long range effect on all of the jobs that have been discusses on this forum. Many people will still come, but adjustments will have to be made to prepare for the future.
"...a trip to Las Vegas has nothing to do with what we really need to survive and thrive."
Thaaatt's righhhhht. Las Vegas either diversifies it's economy, or becomes a sclerotic shell of what it has been.