DAILY MEMO: POLITICS:

Signs of slow recovery bode ill for Reid’s reelection

Thursday, Sept. 17, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Harry Reid

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It ought to sing out like a spirited chant or a song-and-dance number: “The recession has ended! The recession has ended!”

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s announcement to a Washington audience that the recession is finally coming to a close did seem to serve as a rare respite for beleaguered Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Reid, the Nevada Democrat who faces the political fight of his life in his reelection quest next year and needs the economy to improve, quickly celebrated the news: “I feel that Nevada, like the rest of the states in the country, next year is going to see economic recovery,” he told reporters asking about his sagging poll numbers, which show him losing to relatively unknown Republicans.

But there is no dancing in the streets, because even if the recession has technically ended, the recovery looks fragile, weak and jobless, according to economists.

Not Vegas’ kind of recovery

In the typical bloodless language of his profession, Bernanke followed his optimism with this: “It’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time because many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was.”

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen predicted a recovery that would seem to carry all the go-go excitement of a philatelist convention. “I regret to say that I expect the recovery to be tepid.”

Also, “More credit losses are in store even as the economy improves and overall financial conditions ease.”

And, “In the face of high and rising unemployment, delinquencies and foreclosures are showing no sign of turning around.”

Most ominous for Las Vegas was this statement from Yellen: “The chances are slim for a robust rebound in consumer spending.”

This is precisely what concerns Nevada economists: The view that American consumers have recalibrated their spending habits and are less likely to rush to Vegas and blow five grand once the economy does pick up.

Economists such as UNLV’s Keith Schwer say that unlike past recessions, when Nevada often emerged from downturns well before the rest of the nation, the Silver State will lag behind this time because so much of it is idle — high-end hotel rooms, workers, houses, strip malls.

Currently 12.7 percent of Nevadans are unemployed, though the number is higher in Las Vegas, with no signs of abating.

In other words, as the nation slowly moves from crawling to walking, Las Vegas will still be digging itself out.

This is filling many Democrats with trepidation.

“No question: There are danger signs,” said Dan Hart, a Democratic consultant.

Reid consultant’s dual roles

As Senate Majority Leader, Reid is the steward of the Obama administration’s policies, which means he rises and falls with the White House — he can’t run against the president because he’s closely linked to him.

And unlike Obama, who doesn’t face the voters again until 2012, Reid lacks the charisma and public good will that have buoyed Obama through continuing rough economic times.

Absent a strong recovery, Reid is in trouble, said Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the Cook Political Report.

Rarely has Billy Vassiliadis, CEO of the advertising and public affairs firm R&R Partners and a close Reid adviser, had two clients with such interlocking interests. His firm is creating ads for the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority to bolster the city’s tourism economy, even as Reid needs those tourists to start coming and spending freely, which would create jobs for Nevadans.

Vassiliadis, always the city’s most ebullient pitch man, is optimistic that a recovery is coming, and that it will surprise the city’s naysayers, as usual.

“Despite how tough times have been in tourism the past two years, tourism’s been better here than anywhere else in America. No reason we won’t enjoy the best of the recovery,” he said.

Of course, he added that Reid is the central figure in the comeback.

Reid had better hope that Vassiliadis is good at his job. Both jobs.

Discussion: 10 comments so far…

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy.

By neiman1

Sept. 17, 2009

2:48 a.m.

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The biggest concern is how much more damage poor harry can do to Nevada and the country before he is gone? With cap and trade in the wings and nationalized health care on the front burner there is plenty to fear.

Problems like a border over pouring with illegal immigration has been too hard for him to handle any time during his years in the Senate and especially since becoming the big boss. Basic needs of the state have been overlooked as he played party politics instead of finding solutions.
By fremmasmind

Sept. 17, 2009

4:51 a.m.

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J. Patrick C, you state that when more jobs are created our citizens unemployment will be lowered. Why are you skirting the truth. Why can't you report that if our top federal
Senate leader Mr. Reid would bring in I.C.E. and rid our town of the illegal immigrants here, our unemployed citizens would then have jobs, which then our states unemployment reserves could build back up, and UMC wouldn't be struggling with million dollar deficits. The way we have it right now when our state does happen to produce more jobs, they will probably be taken by illegal aliens.
Why do some of you reporters report one side of an issue, and even then the truth is hidden. Why can't you say that if our elected officials would not cater to big businesses wants as far as hiring illegals, we could possibly have only 3% unemployment right now and not be on the verge of bankrupting our unemployment reserves.
Skirting the truth. Sad thing is that citizens are being given a disservice by believing the partial truths of what some of you reporters write.It's to bad that some of you who are getting respect by your readers, don't deserve it.
Don't you reporters realize that citizens are aware that the media is practicing "What the citizens don't know won't hurt them"?
By aBadReid

Sept. 17, 2009

5:18 a.m.

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You can just about twist statistics any way you want to. For an 'alternate' view on Harry Reid's performance view:

aBadReid.com

Bad Reid
Bad Senator
By mrxroc8

Sept. 17, 2009

7:24 a.m.

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The organ grinder monkeys are out in force!

http://bignutco.com/organ-grinder.html

There is plenty of credible evidence that the financial collapse was an engineered event!

The media have played a critical role in peddling the official "Who could have known what would happen" version of events. Bernanke and Paulson were fully aware that they playing with fire, but they chose to proceed anyway, using the mushrooming crisis to achieve their own objectives. Then things began to spin out of control; credit markets froze, interbank lending slowed to a crawl, and stock markets plunged. Even so, the Fed and Treasury persisted with their plan, demanding their $700 billion pound of flesh before they'd do what was needed to stop the bleeding. It was all avoidable!

http://www.counterpunch.org/whitney09152...

Btw, did you know that Reid's TARP gave away $2.7 BILLION to the British rum industry? That's roughly 60% more than the whole state of NevaDUH received in the whole freakin' "stimulus". No, Reid didn't bother to read the stimulus; too busy raising money for himself.

http://texex-xpress.blogspot.com/2009/06...

Obama, Reid, Pelosi burn billions behind closed doors
Examiner Editorial
February 11, 2009

For officials who came into office promising to operate the most honest and transparent White House and Congress ever, President Barack Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seem determined to achieve exactly the opposite result. Their actions in securing passage of the $1 trillion economic stimulus bill -- the total cost exceeds $1 trillion when interest is added to the $838 billion Senate or $827 billion House versions - would be laughable were not the consequences for the nation so dire. Take for example the trio's determination to hustle the Senate-House conference committee to begin meeting within hours of Senate passage of the upper chamber's compromise version.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinio...

BTW...The Bonus restrictions in the original TARP Bill magically disappeared in the 'compromise' session of which Harry Reid was the highest ranking member of Congress..

PS..Harry Reid is an investor in American International Group aka AIG and BOA
By dhvincent1

Sept. 17, 2009

8:11 a.m.

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Another reason why Harry is not going to win. 545,000 more people laid off last week.
Reid has personally killed more jobs in Nevada than any other politician. He cares more about enviromental issues like the global warming hoax than jobs and people. He killed the power plant in Ely that would have employed hundreds of construction workers and about 200 perament jobs.
By Adam_Smith

Sept. 17, 2009

8:54 a.m.

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It seems like Reid's ethical problems and lack of accountability are his major problems.

The guy has steered a ton of pork to family members and lined his own pockets with shady back door real estate deals.
Harry Reid = the Charlie Rangel of Nevada.

Nevada deserves better than this.
By samhammar

Sept. 17, 2009

10:25 a.m.

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I love Nevada!! We currently have two office holders (Gibbons and Ensign) who have tainted our reputation by their antics. Now, we the people of Nevada want to throw Senator Reid under the bus. He hasn't done enough for us, he's funny looking, he's been in to long, whine, whine, WHINE!!! So, why don't we just elect another politician, with a questionable reputation, put him in office in a very minor role and see what he does for Nevada. Let's start all over fresh and hope this new wonder will supply all the naysayers with what they want from Washington. Yes, let's cut off our noses to spite our faces!! Good luck, you all did so well in the last election with the Govenor's race didn't you!!!!!!
By texexnv

Sept. 17, 2009

11:05 a.m.

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From the view up here in the North, none of this should be any of the issues for YOU PEOPLE down there in the South.

Where you're going to get WATER in about two years better come to the forefront of silly season (aka the elections) and FAST!

In 30 years on the public and gambling houses' payroll, has Reid brought you ONE DROP OF WATER? You know the stuff I'm talking about, right?

Rest assured Reid will make sure the gambling houses will have it when YOU don't.

But YOU PEOPLE keep electing him....

Stick THAT in your mag-lev and think about for awhile.
By CynicalObserver

Sept. 17, 2009

11:21 a.m.

Suggest removal

The unemployment numbers in Las Vegas are going to continue to get worse. At least two "call centers" in the Henderson area, owned by nationally known brands, are gradually reducing their work forces through attrition, based upon any pretext they can find for terminating workers. The reason for this stealth attrition of personnel? Avoiding having to give WARN Notices, required by Federal law, when an employer sacks 50+ employees at a time, thereby avoiding those employers' taking a hit on the prices of the companies stock which are or will be traded nationally.

The downsizing of these two call centers may ultimately cause American Nevada and other Henderson area commercial landlords to lose tenants, rendering a further gut punch to our local economy.

I think there's absolutely nothing Harry Reid can do to improve the economic picture in Nevada. As a result, he's got to make sure that on health care reform the Senate delivers what Obama promised in his campaign, e.g. public option, no pre-existing condition exclusions, no cancellation/recission of existing coverages, no discrimination in premiums charged. The whole enchilada of promises to the Democratic base. Harry Reid is, in reality, in the driver's seat in the Senate on health care reform.

Nevada does not get more than its fair share of Federal funds earmarks because of Harry Reid's seniority in the Senate. In fact, we get less in Federal funds on a per-person basis than many other states. So other than slowing down Yucca Mountain's development, Nevadans are not getting much out of Harry Reid's seniority.

Frankly, I'd rather have Jay Rockefeller as Nevada's Senator than Harry Reid. Democrats disloyal to the Democratic Party base have to be punished for their misdeeds after the 2008 election. If Harry Reid wimps out, shows his Blue Dog colors, and strays from the true Democratic Party Platform on health care reform, which got Obama and Titus elected, why on earth would any Democrat bother to vote for him?

The same holds true for Dina the DINO.