Political fast forward to 2010

Friday, Sept. 11, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

I had to check my calendar Thursday to make sure I wasn’t James Darren in 1966, spinning my way into “The Time Tunnel.”

It certainly felt like it already was October 2010 with all the events surrounding the Harry Reid Death Watch occurring within a few hours. The election seems a fortnight away, not 417 days. If it’s this intense now, I can’t imagine what it will be like next year. To wit:

• NRSC Frothing, Part 1: This was positively Pavlovian: The day after South Carolina Rep. Joe Wilson called President Barack Obama a liar during his health care speech, the National Republican Senatorial Committee went back in time to exhume Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s labeling of President George W. Bush as a liar for reneging on his “sound science” promise vis-a-vis Yucca Mountain.

The difference, the NRSC pointed out, was that Wilson immediately apologized and Reid refused to. There was one other difference, too, which the NRSC did not highlight: Unlike Obama, who told the truth about illegal immigrants and health care reform, Bush really did lie about the nuclear waste dump.

But during a week in which Politico listed the Top 10 Reidisms, it’s clear the NRSC will happily remind voters of the majority leader’s sometimes jarring, occasionally inappropriate candor at every opportunity.

• NRSC Frothing, Part 2: Later in the day, in a release labeled “Breaking,” the NRSC gleefully reported that national pundit Charlie Cook had moved Reid’s seat from “Likely Democratic” to “Toss Up.” This isn’t news to political insiders here or in D.C., but the public imprimatur of the conventional wisdom from one who helps set it was cause for confetti-throwing at NRSC Central.

Hard to blame the Republicans, who focused on this line from Cook’s assessment:

“If we were skeptical of Reid’s vulnerability at the start of the cycle, we have become increasingly convinced over the last two months or so that he is as endangered as any Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in 2010. Reid’s inability to improve his standing in the polls, coupled with the deteriorating political environment for Democrats nationally and (Sue) Lowden’s impending entry into the race, are clear indications that his political problems are deep and will be difficult (though not impossible) to fix.”

Cook’s analysis, based on recent polling, the national atmospherics and the endless flow of Reidisms, is trenchant as far as it goes. I have argued for months that even a second-tier candidate could defeat Reid next year, but what if there are four second-tier candidates in the primary? Which brings me to …

• Is the roll call too long? The capital insider publication Roll Call on Thursday looked at the glut of GOP contenders and wondered if the GOP might have not embarrassment of riches, but some rich guys, some embarrassments and generally too many contenders:

“Republicans lost their top choice in Nevada when Rep. Dean Heller decided to pass on the race, and if no other choice candidate can be found some Republicans are now wondering if going after Reid would be the best use of the NRSC’s resources.

“If they don’t have somebody, why would they make that investment if the candidates are just destined to lose?” one Nevada GOP insider said Wednesday. “I’m not saying that’s the case right now, but that’s how it’s playing out. You have a lot of B-level candidates. I think they have to ask themselves if this is worthwhile.”

That may be overstating the case — the NRSC clearly has to make the Reid race its No. 1 priority. But unless NRSC boss John Cornyn is standing next to Sue Lowden, the state GOP chairwoman who clearly is the strongest GOP candidate, when she announces next month, the Republicans are asking for trouble. With Reid as weak as at any time in his career, the only way Republicans will not be competitive is if they commit murder-suicide in the primary.

As if there weren’t enough national attention on the race in one day, The Hill, another capital insider publication, profiled Danny Tarkanian, wondering whether “Tark, Jr.” will “take a bite out of Reid.” And for good measure, The New York Times is profiling sometimes-Nevadan, mostly New Yorker John Chachas, who is also in the race against Reid and has a home in Ely. And to top it off, Karl Rove, who has promised to write nasty bits about Reid in his forthcoming book, will be in town this month to speak, and his appearance was promoted Thursday by the conservative think tank the Nevada Policy Research Institute.

Is it really September 2009 and not October 2010? You could have fooled me.

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday. Ralston can be reached at 870-7997 or at ralston@vegas.com.

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By JohnF

Sept. 11, 2009

7:19 a.m.

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"...looked at the glut of GOP contenders and wondered if the GOP might have not embarrassment of riches, but some rich guys, some embarrassments and generally too many contenders"

Priceless! I'll laugh about that for a week!
By atdleft (Andrew Davey)

Sept. 11, 2009

7:58 a.m.

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And that will be the GOP's downfall. Mark my words. Don't ever count out Harry Reid. ;-)
By liberalview21

Sept. 11, 2009

10:24 a.m.

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We all know that Dear Ole Harry will be voted out in 2010, so let's start trying to discuss who the best replacement would be. Someone who would serve both Nevada and the nation proud. We've had enough of Harry's bumbling. Let's get someone new!
By ElRavioli

Sept. 11, 2009

11:10 a.m.

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Ralston Purina: stick a fork in that old turkey (Reid) -- he's done! I woud rather vote for The Scintas's - Las Vegas's greatest entertainer's - than vote for Hairy. And, although Time Tunnel was a decent show, I still prefer My Mother The Car.

sport's!
By NLV-Indep13

Sept. 11, 2009

12:39 p.m.

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Since it will surely take more than simply being "not Reid" to win, a little GOP primary infighting won't be such a bad thing. Whoever wins will have their work cut out for them, and we need a workhorse who won't shy away from a fight (not a wayward frat boy or an empty suit).
By Johnathan_Abbinett (Johnathan Abbinett)

Sept. 11, 2009

3:56 p.m.

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I'm hoping, and dare say even praying, for a Republican Murder-Suicide scenario! The Senior Senator from Nevada and Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, will have a tough campaign fight - but, (with the vast majority of the Democratic Party behind him) - I'm confident he'll eck out another close victory! It is NevaDUH - but, reasonable minds will hopefully prevail in realizing we still need Harry to help us all as the SML!
By Sun-Downer

Sept. 11, 2009

8:40 p.m.

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My first question is who is James Darren, but then I wanted to know who is John Chachas???
As for Sue Lowden, I know way too much about her. She can be blamed for putting Harry Reid into office in the first place with all those campaign contributions that she and her husband have been throwing at Harry Reid for all those years, and as leader of the GOP the republican party went broke and turned blue. I trust Sue Lowden like I trust Harry Reid. Republicans in this state would have to be blind or stupid to stand behind an adversary that helped make Nevada go from red to blue in the first place.
By Future

Sept. 12, 2009

3:28 a.m.

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/cont...

I cannot remember anything that Obama said about healthcare last night. What I remember is his snarling smack down of his opposition.

He also used the address to very publicly rebuke those who do not trust him or believe him.

Obama in his address to the nation call opposition positions (Harry called them evilmonger and Nancy called them un-American) on 5 issues "a lie, plain and simple"

Remember when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid called President George W. Bush a liar

Obama said "We've seen Washington at its best and at its worst"what we have also seen in these last months is the same partisan spectacle that only hardens the disdain many Americans have toward their own government. Instead of honest debate, we've seen scare tactics.

Obama said " assailed the "bogus claims" he says his critics have pushed. "But know this -- I will not waste time with those who have made the calculation ". to improve it. I won't stand by while the special interests use the same old tactics to keep things exactly the way they are,"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con...

After declining for months to identify himself with the details of emerging legislation, President Obama for the first time embraced a set of ideas as "my plan." But the White House released scant specifics on legislation advertised as a done deal. Once again there is no plan specifics hence we cannot oppose Obama.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/...

Republicans have drawn up 35 different health care proposals, including the tom Price (Rep-GA) H.R.3400 - Small Business Health Fairness Act of 2009, this year, undermining President Obama's continued statements that opponents of his health care plan have no solutions.
------------------

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/09/...

Health care policy researchers are contradicting President Obama's claim that a government-run health insurance program would be self-sufficient and could rely on premiums, saying it's not possible to insure up to 30 million people with better coverage and reduce costs at the same time.

In his case to the joint session of Congress Wednesday night, Obama cited the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to contend that less than 5 percent of Americans would sign up for a so-called public option.
By mred

Sept. 12, 2009

8:10 a.m.

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let's see, Sue Louddumb, baby-tark, angle, some blob from carson city (forgot his name)-- by the time they tear each other down, it will be too late.

a lot of the people that don't don't like Reid are on the left, like the Daily KOS.

A strong libertarian candidate will assure a Reid Victory.