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StumbleReport: Harry Reid’s poor approval rating leaves race a ‘toss up’
Thursday, Sept. 10, 2009 | 11:28 a.m.
Senator Harry Reid speaks at a Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce luncheon Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2009 at the Four Seasons.
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WASHINGTON -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s re-election chances entered dicey terrain this afternoon when the non-partisan Cook Political Report took the dramatic step of rating his 2010 race a “toss up.”
Even without a Republican challenger, Reid’s poor job approval ratings and a deteriorating environment for Democrats nationally prompted the new listing.
Cook said polling on Reid’s popularity among Nevada voters show “some of the worst numbers of any incumbent up this cycle.”
Cook moved the Nevada Senate race up two notches on its rating scale – from a seat that would “likely” go Democratic, skipping over “leans” Democratic category, to land at “toss up.”
Cook senior analyst Jennifer Duffy acknowledged “it is a bigger kind of move than we usually do.”
But Duffy said polling over the past year among Nevada voters “has shown absolutely no improvement” for Reid.
“The fact that he trails two Republican challengers whose name ID doesn’t crack 50 percent is a very, very bad sign,” Duffy said.
Recent polling has shown Reid losing in match-ups to potential Republican candidates, including Danny Tarkanian, the former UNLV basketball player and son of the legendary coach, and Sue Lowden, the state’s Republican Party chairman.
Reid has dismissed these polls, and his own campaign numbers show him breaking even or beating the potential Republican contenders.
Reid is amassing $25 million for his re-election in a race that will draw donations from Republicans nationally trying to oust him.
Several other potential Republicans have indicated an interest in the race, including state Sen. Mark Amodei, who announced his candidacy on Wednesday.
The Cook report notes that with Lowden’s skills as a former TV news anchor “she is undoubtedly much more polished on camera than the incumbent… one can’t help but feel that she is national Republicans’ first choice.”
The robust Republican field could lead to a brutal primary contest. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has refrained from backing a candidate after its top pick, Rep. Dean Heller, declined to run.
Both Tarkanian and Lowden are coming to Washington next week to meet with Republican campaign officials.
“Democrats have forgotten the lessons they taught Republicans,” Duffy said. “In bad political environments, you don’t need a first-tier candidate to beat a vulnerable one.”
Reid’s campaign manager said ratings from a national pundit won’t influence Nevada voters.
“Voters are going to send Reid back to the Senate, not national pundits,” said campaign manager Brandon Hall.
Some Democratic strategists doubt Reid’s chances have narrowed as much as the Cook outlook suggests, particularly given the untested field of Republican challengers.
“We said from the very beginning we knew we were going to have a tough campaign,” Hall said. “We believe voters will go into the voting booth with the question: Who will best serve Nevada? We’re confident the answer is: Senator Reid.”
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not to worry harry...
the pathetic republicans don't have anyone to run against you...
tark's little kid is a joke...
nobody can stand lowden...
no problemo...
vegas loves you baby!!!
It's overstating it if you believe Nevada loves "Pinkie", but, I will give the old boy this:
1. Nobody can beat him in 2010. The American and Nevada voter still aren't ready to drop the 06 and 08 election results just yet. But, from 2012 on, the Dem's are cooked. Their tax and spend out of control ways will turn off the voters again. It happens every cycle.
"Reid has dismissed these polls..." This is exactly the arrogant attitude that got him into this mess. He ignores his constieunts and does whatever he wants thinking Nevadans will simply "forget" and give him a pass. Nope, his tenure is over. His arrogant behavior has finally caught up to him and his answer to poor leadership is raise more money. Harry Reid just doesn't get it, but he will!
Congrats Harry,
You have finally did it. We've been voting Democratic for 40 years. But your arrogance on this socialized medicine issue has finally turned us to the other side. Our family, all seven of us, have decided to vote Republican next year.
We just wish we could vote against Pelosi too.
Wow. Like I'm surprised? Harry Reid never has it easy, but he always manages to come out on top. With some hard work and a plan to turn out the Democratic base next year (last I checked, Democrats have about an 8% registration edge in this state), Reid will win again.
He's still the Senate Majority Leader and wields a great deal of power to help our State. Telegenic he ain't (a 2X4 is livelier and more engaging on camera) and, personally, he's a bit too leftish for my taste. Republicans, though, will have to come up with some compelling reasons we should give up all that political "juice" so a freshman back-bencher can be useless for six years!
Voter fatigue and high negatives will decide this race. Goodbye Harry, we hardly knew ya!
"He's [Harry] still the Senate Majority Leader and wields a great deal of power to help our State.
Harry is Nancy's handmaiden.
If he passes the public option he is gone
Maybe harry should have held a town hall and actually listened to his constituents.
It doesn't matter to me who the next senator is but did you see the speech and if you did who was the second man to enter the chamber after the President?
Will your next choice be holding the President's belt loop?
Sleaze Harry is such a wimp that he didn't have the GUTS to have a live Town Hall meeting. He is just a wimp who has to be held accountable! I will definitely do everything in my power to have him not get reelected.
AngryReader it's people like u why we have these politicians! Hopefully he doesn't get reelected!
Query: Why are you angry when you read? Reading relaxes me, especially at bedtime. Perhaps the problem is with what you are reading. Might I suggest Mark Levin's newest book?
Good ole Nevada. You have half the population willing to lose the third most powerful man in Washington who has more clout that just about anyone, and Nevadans are going to replace him with a wet-behind-the-ears newbie, who then gets to stand next to the state's other Senator who is a disgraced exiled Republican policy maker, and who systematically cheated on his wife while doing a friend's wife. This is actually getting to be funny. I think thoughtful people everywhere ought to chip in and build a fence around Nevada so that whatever brain virus is infecting most of most of the state, doesn't escape to the outside world.
Good ole Nevada. You have half the population willing to lose the third most powerful man in Washington who has more clout that just about anyone, and Nevadans are going to replace him with a wet-behind-the-ears newbie, who then gets to stand next to the state's other Senator who is a disgraced exiled Republican policy maker, and who systematically cheated on his wife while doing a friend's wife. This is actually getting to be funny. I think thoughtful people everywhere ought to chip in and build a fence around Nevada so that whatever brain virus is infecting most of the state, doesn't escape to the outside world.
A toss-up for a salad-tosser!
sPoRt'S!
Carson, what does that say for Harry? You Dems keep blaming the Repblicans but the truth is out there and you folks are "out there".
As far as your snarky "brain virus" they have actually isolated it. It is called Obama Infatuation Syndrome and it only effects sheep from the Democratic Herd.
wingnuts, vote for danny, he'll probably throw a basketball and football at the president. then you'll have 2 idiots at the same time. getalife, babababa, getabrain
Carson: please get your hiccups under control.
Well Harry, It seems you have pushed your luck to the breaking point and now you can't understand why your polls are lacking to politicians who have less experience than you. Do you think that jumpimg on the wagon to accept and sponsor bills to give illegal aliens citizenship here in Nevada and the United States would set well with over 150,000 citizens here in Clark County who are without work and who realize if these bills you are sponsoring are passed the unemployment rate for citizens will only increase.
Harry its when you turn your back on your constituents and treat them like they don't even exist, thats where you get yourself into hot water.
Hispanic citizens can't even trust you because you will let their jobs come into jeopardy to the point where the illegals will be hired and take jobs away from them.
It's no wonder why the citizens of Nevada can't trust you anymore. There are over 150,000 of us that have been waiting for your help. All we see and hear is what you want to do for the illegal immigrant, and how that will destroy the chances for "We the People" who are only trying to get our lives back on track.
Is wet in the pants better than behind the ears?
You would have to be a mental midget to vote for Harry "The war is lost" Reid. His policies are a disaster and he is just plain arrogant and unlikeable.
51% of Americans say war in Afghanistan is not worth it, put that in your poll pipe and smoke it. Baby-tark lives in San Diego anyway.
And what about the internment camps Acorn is building in the desert? and the death panels?
when they go into effect, it will be all over for opponents of Reid. Not to mention the h1n1 vaccine that will cause people's brains to vote democratic. and all the voting machines are controlled by China. And talk radio is going to be shut down by the fairness doctrine.
Carson, At what point can the people say it's over? These people don't care for you and I,Just themselves. I would rather suffer without Reid than with! Can you explain what he does for nevada anyway?
At one time John "the Maverick" McCain was ahead in a poll for President! Polls are only as good as the people who actually answer the phone and listen to all the questions. I simply don't take the time to answer any of them. If the voters choose to get rid of the most powerful Senator we've had in a long time and bring in rookie with no power whatsoever then Nevada can enjoy being at the end of the bread line when congress is passing out the butter ie: pet projects.