Laying Las Vegas odds on some races to watch in Nevada in 2010

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, Sept. 6, 2009 | 2 a.m.

It begins Monday.

Although it may seem Campaign 2010 began months ago, Labor Day traditionally marks the unofficial opening of the election season. And that means the Pundit Sports Book of Nevada is ready to set the opening odds in the two major races.

Place your futures bets now. This sports book is backed by the full faith and credit of the governments in this state, so you know upfront the likelihood of getting paid.

• Governor:

I have covered gubernatorial contests with candidates obviously sprinkled with the holy mother’s milk, but rarely are there a pair of Anointed Ones. Federal Judge Brian Sandoval on the Republican side — a GOP caucus turns its lonely eyes to you — and Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid — money can’t buy me love but maybe it can buy me lower negatives — are seen as favorites. But are they?

• GOP primary:

• Sandoval (1.5-1) — Primary voters can be rabid and Sandoval will not readily appeal to the frothing types. But he is likely to have a first-rate campaign team that knows how to make images and destroy others.

• Ex-North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon (3-1) — He has shown that he will play smashmouth politics by lambasting Sandoval as Walkaway Brian, a man who can’t stick to a political job. The key will be how much money he can raise and how the team of Billy Rogers/Steve Wark can identify and turn out voters.

• Ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (5-1): He has support at the grass-roots level and will work relentlessly. If he can get a threshold amount of money and present ideas that catch fire, he could surprise.

• Ø (7-1): Jim Gibbons has shown signs of life but those just may be post-mortem spasms. He is still the governor — theoretically — and has the ability to garner press. And legislative Democrats have proven to be helpful foils. Problem: In one recent poll, by Research 2000 for Daily Kos, Gibbons was upside-down (32 percent positive, 36 percent negative) with Republicans. Dead men (Mel Carnahan) can win elections, but not often.

• Democratic primary:

• Reid the Younger (1-5): Those odds presume neither Speaker Barbara Buckley nor Mayor Oscar Goodman enters the Democratic primary. If either does, Reid is an underdog, thanks to his last name and his elected title.

• General election:

Sandoval: 3-1

Reid: 5-1

Montandon: 8-1

Heck: 10-1

Gibbons: 20-1

Some prop bets:

• Odds against Buckley getting in before poll results showed her crushing Reid the Younger: 5-1

• Odds against Buckley getting in after poll results showed her crushing Reid the Younger: 1.5-1

• Odds against Goodman getting in: 10-1

• Odds against Goodman winning the primary if he gets in as a Democrat: 3-1

• Odds against Goodman winning the general if he runs as a nonpartisan: 100-1

• Chances of Dawn Gibbons endorsing Jim Gibbons: 0

• Chances of Brian Sandoval holding arms up with Sen. John Ensign at a rally: 0

• U.S. Senate: Most elected officials who have an approval rating in the mid- to high 30s (in best case, low 40s) might as well start drafting their retirement speeches. But most also won’t raise $25 million, most are not the most resilient pol in Nevada annals and most don’t have an array of opponents who, as I have said, look like the denizens of that space bar in “Star Wars.”

• Odds Harry Reid will get reelected: 1-1.2. If he had been given Heller, Reid would not be a favorite. But against anyone else, he has to be, albeit a slight one.

• GOP primary:

• State Chairwoman Sue Lowden (3-1): Snow White has the best profile and will raise the most money. The question is how much cash will her opponents have to attack her.

• Danny Tarkanian (6-1): He’s never won a race but maybe the third time is the charm. It’s not libelous to say he has baggage. And how far does name recognition get you?

• Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (8-1): Where is the Club for Growth when you need it? No one will outwork her, but she has a pretty narrow following and not much money.

• State Sen. Mark Amodei (10-1): He has a thin political base and that 2003 taxing proposal of his ($1.6 billion) has killed better legislators.

• The rest of the dwarves (50-1): None of the rest has much of a chance to win, but most have great potential to amuse.

A couple of prop bets:

• Odds Reid the Elder will make an intemperate remark: Off the charts (no wagering accepted)

• Chances that the majority leader will run as team with Rory with “Elect one, get one for free” as slogan: 0

Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.