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June 4, 2012

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State GOP candidates aren’t playing team ball

By (contact)

Friday, Sept. 4, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

On paper, it doesn’t look like a fair fight: A dynamic Hispanic with an impressive resume and a charismatic former anchorwoman vs. The Bland Dynasty.

After a cycle that relegated them to political oblivion, losing the presidential race here, control of the state Senate and a congressman, state Republicans must be relishing the imminent resurgence. Brian Sandoval and Sue Lowden vs. Rory and Harry Reid — that creates, to continue the sports metaphor, serious matchup problems for Democrats in the two most important state races next year, for governor and U.S. senator.

But as many coaches who were awarded Super Bowl or NCAA championship rings before the games were played know too well, what’s on paper doesn’t always translate to the field. Indeed, neither Sandoval nor Lowden is a shoo-in to get to the big dance that occurs after the June primary. And if the events of the past 48 hours or so are any indication, the GOP may quickly turn into a circular firing squad.

Let me recap:

Sen. John Ensign claimed he had recruited Judge Sandoval into the governor’s race, which came as news to the nascent Sandoval campaign, and Sandoval’s minions quickly worked to distance themselves from Sen. Stonewall. Ensign, during a private meeting with activists, suggested fellow Republican Jim Gibbons, the only GOP elected official who has publicly expressed any sympathy for the beleaguered senator, should not run because of Ø’s poor polling numbers. Gubernatorial hopeful Mike Montandon, furious at Ensign for his embrace of Sandoval, put out a scorching news release that invoked the senator’s affair, called him “scandal-plagued,” and smacked Sandoval (again) for being a quitter.

Phew. These Republicans do entertain.

And I haven’t even mentioned Senate contender Danny Tarkanian’s boasting of internal polling that shows him crushing Lowden in the Senate primary. Or state Sen. Mark Amodei, an incipient Reid opponent, being described by a sympathetic journalist as having “superior credentials” to Lowden’s or Little Tark’s. Or Ensign’s calling Montandon and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Joe Heck to “explain” his embrace of Sandoval.

Smart Democrats are very worried about a ticket topped by two men with the same last name, a name that has been shown to be quite toxic in polls. It doesn’t matter if Harry hurts Rory more or Rory hurts Harry more. They hurt each other.

So Sandoval would love to run against Rory and Lowden would love to run against Harry. But how does this dream team survive its own party, especially when it is led by two guys, Gibbons and Ensign, whose combined approval rating doesn’t get to 50 percent?

Sandoval might be seen as a GOP savior by many in the party’s Establishment who can’t wait to put the nightmare known as Gibbonsworld in the rear-view mirror. He will be seen by many insiders as the strongest general election candidate, one capable of getting crossover votes from Democrats and snaring many independents.

But is he the best candidate in a GOP primary? If Gibbons runs and Montandon and Heck stay in, can a moderate get enough votes to win the June primary?

Gibbons, whose numbers are so bad he actually envies Reid the Elder’s data, will still draw votes from the GOP anti-tax base if he runs. Heck is going to run as a man with a plan, which may have appeal in some quarters, while Montandon, although it might seem as if he is starring in a remake of “Tora! Tora! Tora!”, thinks he can win by defining Sandoval as a political hopscotcher who can’t stay anywhere for long.

In the Senate race, Lowden has baggage from her state Senate career and the party’s performance while she has been chairwoman. But many Republicans see a woman at the top of the ticket who can articulate a vision — “He’s Harry Reid and I’m not” — as potent. My guess is the National Republican Senatorial Committee will alight on her as The Anointed One.

But anointments sometimes fail. Tarkanian has never won a race but he does have a recognizable name and his campaign seems to be run by the Energizer Bunny. Amodei has a tiny political base, sponsored the largest tax proposal in Nevada history and has ethics questions, but he is known in the North and will get some votes. And then there is the rest of the field — at least seven others, including the always-underestimated Sharron Angle, beloved by the far right.

Yes, Lowden is Snow White among the dwarves. But some fairy tales don’t have happy endings.

If these Republicans running for governor and U.S. Senate continue to behave as if they are in a slasher movie, maybe bland will be better.

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