Print
E-mail
Share
digg
Newsvine
Facebook
Stumble
Technorati
reddit
Fark
twitterThe economy:
Recession may be over for U.S., but not Las Vegas
Economist says local recovery will take longer
Fri, Oct 16, 2009 (3 a.m.)
Sun Coverage
Although more than 80 percent of the nation’s economists say the recession is over and expansion has begun, a recovery in Southern Nevada remains dim.
The eyes of Las Vegas are on the scheduled December opening of CityCenter and its 12,000 employees, but the debut isn’t expected to reverse the climbing unemployment rate, now at 13.4 percent, and economists predict there will be little to cheer about in the region through the end of the year.
The latest data from UNLV economist Keith Schwer show no sign the recession is ending here.
His negative outlook came despite the September gain recorded by the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Indicators, the second increase in three months.
The September index, which measures data from July, rose 0.25 percent from August, but it is 3.26 percent below a year ago.
“While it’s certainly welcome news that UNLV’s indicators improved slightly between June and July, we need to see a longer pattern of improvement,” said John Restrepo, an economist and principal of Restrepo Consulting Group. “Remember, Southern Nevada lost 60,000 jobs in the 12 months ending this past August, and consumer spending remains in the doldrums. A growing number of economists are expecting a W-shaped national recovery, and this will impact our rate of recovery.”
A W-shaped recovery assumes a second drop before the economy finally improves, he said.
However, a study released Oct. 12 by the National Association for Business Economics showed that economists are optimistic about the rest of the country. They predict the gross domestic product will increase 2.9 percent in the second half of this year and 3 percent in 2010.
However, the economists said the recovery is likely to be more moderate than past ones because the jobless rate is expected to remain high.
Schwer said economists are concerned there could be a second downturn.
But even if there isn’t a double dip, signs remain that Las Vegas won’t start recovering until after a national rebound.
This recession proves that Las Vegas’ tourism and growth-based economy isn’t insulated from the national business cycle, he said.
“We have gotten ourselves whipped into a frenzy that we were decoupled from the national economy, but it couldn’t be further from the truth,” Schwer said. “Hopefully, we learned from this recession and won’t be dumb like that again.”
Five of the 10 September indexes improved, compared with August’s, including gross gaming revenue and visitor volume, which were up more than 6 percent. None of the 10 indicators was up from September 2008.
Schwer called the September index increase a “blip,” and it needs to be sustained over several months before it provides a reading of where the local economy is heading.
Also, the index may be off because of the complexity of seasonal adjustments with the data, he said.
No matter what the data say, however, Schwer said the outlook is more positive than it was a year ago.
“There was a lot of discussion about whether we were going to have a 1930s’ recession, but we have moved away from that,” Schwer said. “We have gone through a horrible period, but we have become more optimistic.”
Discussion: 18 comments so far…
Post a comment
- Most Read
- Discussed
- Most E-mailed
- Police: 3 arrested in officer’s death have gang ties
- Franchione potential early candidate for UNLV football post
- Big fight headed for a New Frontier?
- Las Vegas condo hotels remain a tough sell — just ask Trump
- Hotels rein in risque advertising campaigns
- $60 million to stabilize neighborhoods buys five homes
- Funny Face: Carrot Top’s stage act a mask of contradictions
- LV companies in denial about problem gambling
- Reserve Rebels didn’t have time to panic
- Hospital privacy leak could harm patients
Blogs
Elsewhere
Sands China raises $2.5 billion in Hong Kong IPO
Marquardt v. Sonnen scheduled for UFC 109
Bloggity, Bloggity, Bloggity
Will a fourth consecutive title by Jimmie Johnson be good or bad for NASCAR? (2 Comments)
Top Chef: Las Vegas
The Jet Stream: And then there were four
Top Chef Episode 12: On keeping it simple
Miech Again
Chilly start for Chace, but Stanback says he'll warm up (1 Comment)
Elsewhere
Harvard Poker Pro: Texas Hold 'Em skills can help traders
- Live chat
- Tuesday, noon PST
- Chat with Krista Creelman
- Problem Gambling Center executive director Krista Creelman will answer questions about gambling addiction from Las Vegas Sun readers from noon to 1 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. ... Submit question
Calendar »
- 21 Sat
- 22 Sun
- 23 Mon
- 24 Tue
- 25 Wed
-
UFC 106 at Mandalay Bay Events Center
Mandalay Bay Events Center | 7 p.m. to 11 p.m.
-
Julio Iglesias at the Las Vegas Hilton
Las Vegas Hilton
-
Natasha Wicks hosts at Hawaiian Tropic Zone
Hawaiian Tropic Zone | 10 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
-
Tito Ortiz hosts at Tao
Tao | 10 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
-
Hiroshima at Santa Fe Station
Santa Fe Station
-
Frank Mir hosts at LAX
LAX Nightclub | 10 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
-
The Four Tops at The Orleans Showroom
Orleans Hotel-Casino
-
Amir Sadollah hosts at Prive
Prive | 10 p.m. to 11:59 p.m.
The Sun
Locally owned and independent for more than 50 years.
Schwer, Restrepo, even the Applied Analysis guys...OK, but please, no more Larry Murphy.
Not to mention Richard Lee
We love the use of analysis, voodoo guessing.
"There was a lot of discussion about whether we were going to have a 1930s' recession, but we have moved away from that," Schwer said. "We have gone through a horrible period, but we have become more optimistic."
Nevada won't begin to see any type of recovery until 2013 at the earliest. We're in the front line of development and infrastructure and see firsthand what is coming up on the horizon; there isn't much on the books and very little in the ways of development.
As far as infrastructure goes, there is currently one major project coming up that will employ 1,000 people, see Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System, this is not in Nevada, and it is located in Mojave, California. Bechtel is the primary.
The vast majority of the planned communities is in bankruptcy or has been foreclosed on. There are few developers attempting to revive projects that are under review with the bankruptcy proceedings, however, in the overall scheme of valley, little to no new jobs will be created should they succeed with their plans.
NDOT has one project from Blue Diamond to Tropicana, this project won't employee that many people or creates many new jobs, and it will keep existing personal working for a period of time. The Stimulus money won't create or save job unless you're career welfare precipitant, is so then you've hit the lottery.
Texas is a good example of how to manage money; TxDOT has in excess of 12 billion, combined totals of all funding sources for infrastructure and FEMA. Work there is plentiful and they haven't really felt the impacts Nevada experiences.
What these Analyses are failing to look at is the status of the planned communities that are broke and their absorption rate and what projects are looming in the distant future. The permits and approvals of many of the these projects are under redesign due to costs and available funding sources, new EIRS, permits, design, etc" etc" dictate their schedule along with sales. New home sales are stagnant here and won't be the center of attention for many years.
Nevada from our point of view is in a depression and the gloom and doom won't be over for years.
Its2hot, it's good to see a comment like yours that offers something detailed and substantive. I learned something by reading it.
investment in las vegas has taken a good size hit; corporations, start-ups and retirees are taking a hard look at vegas before jumping in.
Good thing we have the Senate Majority leader as our state's representative!
Really does a lot of good thing for this state!
http://aBadReid.com
Bad Reid
Bad Senator
this is not an official statement and we are still in recession..
brian really you should know better then to headline fantasy... rather than real fact..
this article is misleading
WHAT!?!
Just yesterday Sinator Gried and Joe the Clown were telling us up here in Reno that NevaDUH was awash in new $526,000 jobs. They even flew in on AF2 costing $60,000 per hour to spread the good news. http://texex-xpress.blogspot.com/2009/10...
You mean none of you down there got any of those jobs? Tsk...tsk...tsk...
Excuse me while I balance my checkbook. I have soooo much trouble when it comes to handling all those zeros (especially the one at the very front of the chain).
Every comment, every news story, all of it is "voodoo guessing" because this is an unprecedented economic scenario (or, at least, unprecedented to most of those alive today).
One thing history teaches us is that Las Vegas has always been a boom-and-bust city, and it has always recovered. The question is not "if" but rather "when" it will bounce back, and how it will look as a city once it does. I see signs of recovery on the ground in Las Vegas; still, October, so far, has not met the expectations of any business owner with whom I speak.
I happen to think that once this phase of bust is over, Las Vegas will be a better city, and a better place to live. But that's just the voodoo opinion of someone who has lived here a long time. And for anyone who thinks its2hot? Well, remember, one can always get out of the kitchen.
http://money.howstuffworks.com/recession...
"A recession is a prolonged period of time when a nation's economy is slowing down, or contracting. Such a slow-down is characterized by a number of different trends, including:
1. People buying less stuff
2. Decrease in factory production
3. Growing unemployment
4. Slump in personal income
5. An unhealthy stock market
By the conventional definition, this slow-down has to continue for at least six months to be considered a recession."
1. Americans still aren't buying stuff. They're saving.
2. I haven't heard anything about America producing more stuff yet. If you have, then please post it here.
3. Unemployment is still going up and odds are the numbers are worse than what is being reported.
4. Personal income is DOWN and continues to be a major problem for many Americans.
5. I believe the stock market is still unhealthy. I believe that this is the calm before the next storm. This is the time between the resetting of the subprime loans ($1 trillion) and the option arm/alt-a loans ($1.2 trillion) and the stock market is going to take another massive hit in the next two years.
I hope I'm wrong. I really do. But watch the first four minutes of this story and tell me that these option arm and alt-a loans won't have an effect on America. You won't be able to.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=4...
Jesus is coming soon. Very soon.
@blood: Did you send someone over to Star Nursery or the Home Depot to pick up some day labor? Perhaps along with Jesus you'll get an Angel, too. But I'm not sure why you think the rest of us will care, unless you're trying to demonstrate how you're doing your part to stimulate the local economy by at least providing some people with short-term employment solutions.
Along those same lines, the pizza delivery guy is coming soon, too. Very soon.
Blame it on Bush
What would Howard Hughes do in our current situation . Well I think first he would buy out Wynn , cheaply and kick his butt out of town , and get some cheaper slots in town , among other things and turn this into a fun town again !!
Vegas is dead.
lvdjlv--thanks for that "60 minutes" link. I thought I had seen all of the 60 minutes stuff about the sub-prime loan crisis but I must have missed that one. I don't think there's going to be a recovery. Half of the people are still paying off their credit cards and the other half are getting into massive new debt in the form of student loans. Check out this video about one girl's student loan nightmare:
http://www.bostonherald.com/business/gen...
Do you want fries with that?--and when you get home you've got 5 calls from Sallie Mae.
the national recession is not even CLOSE to being over.
again, as i say a lot on here...
go to google and click on "news search" and just type in "layoffs" and filter it by "this week" and you'll see that hundreds of americans are still losing their jobs.
most of the media in las vegas has a conflict of interest in reporting on the economy.
the greenspuns make money off casinos and the review-gerbil needs any excuse to come out with another "special section" to sell ads.
i swear, they would burn down a hospice for children just so they could have a "special section" to celebrate its reconstruction.
is november national pudding month? well, let's have a special pudding section!
We here in Vegas are screwed with non ending recession until one thing happens and happens quickly! The break up of the monopoly on casino ownerships here with the big three, thus creating competition for customers, thus creating better values, which attracts guess what? business and tourism.. gee is that so hard to understand? how about throwing in the bullet train, and relaxed incentives for businesses to relocate here. What does that do? create jobs! What does that do? create home ownership, what does that do create a revived tax base for the state, what does that do? create more state funded jobs.. shall I go on???