Beware faltering relief

By Jeff Haney

Thursday, Oct. 15, 2009 | 2 a.m.

The Philadelphia Phillies, the defending World Series champions, are aiming to become the first National League team to repeat since the Big Red Machine of the mid-1970s.

They enter today’s NL championship series opener at Los Angeles coming off a stirring comeback victory against the Colorado Rockies in the fourth and final game of their divisional series.

During the regular season, the Phillies led the NL in home runs for the second consecutive year with a franchise-record 224. They were the only NL team to amass at least 200 homers and 100 stolen bases.

If the NLCS goes the distance, four of the seven games will have been played in L.A. — which shouldn’t worry the Phillies, because they were the best road team in the league this season (48-33).

Yet the Phils will enter the NLCS as a betting underdog in Las Vegas sports books to win the series against the Dodgers.

What’s more, professional sports handicapper Scott Pritchard is recommending a wager on the Dodgers to win the series at the consensus Las Vegas price of about minus 125 (risk $1.25 to net $1).

The Phillies can be found at plus 105 (risk $1 to net $1.05) around town, though the odds vary slightly by property. All Lucky’s sports books in Nevada, for example, had the series lined a few pennies higher, at minus 127/plus 107, on Wednesday.

In handicapping the series, Pritchard realized he could not back a team with as much turmoil in the bullpen as the Phillies have experienced this year.

“The Phillies hit, they run, and their starting pitching is competitive, but I think the difference will be in the middle relief and in the closing situation,” said Pritchard, who can be found online at vegasinsider.com.

“It could ultimately come down to relief pitching, and I think the bullpen is where the Dodgers have a decided edge. I think the favorite minus 120 or 125 is cheap in this series.”

Last October the Phillies beat L.A. in five games in the NLCS on their way to a World Series victory against Tampa Bay.

Last season, however, closer Brad Lidge was 48-for-48 in save opportunities, including a 7-for-7 mark in the postseason.

“What a difference a year makes,” Pritchard said, running down Lidge’s ignominious numbers for 2009: an 0-8 record, a 7.21 ERA, 11 blown saves. “I think this is going to be a key because (manager) Charlie Manuel is high on this guy because of everything he did a year ago, and I’m sensitive to that.

“But I’m not sold on the Phillies bullpen, and I’m not sold on Brad Lidge as a closer. He is just not the same pitcher, in my opinion.”

In Game 1 of the NLCS, the Dodgers, behind Clayton Kershaw, are a minus 130 favorite in Las Vegas. Philly supporters can back Cole Hamels as an underdog for the first time since May, when he faced C.C. Sabathia of the Yankees. The Phillies won 4-3 — but not before Lidge was tagged with his fourth blown save of the season.

The total in the opener stands at 7 1/2 runs, but with a premium of minus 115 to minus 125 on the “under,” thanks in part to Dodger Stadium’s reputation as a ballpark that favors pitchers. (In baseball totals betting, if the “under” is minus 125, the “over” is typically plus 105 in Nevada sports books.)

“In a projected pitchers’ duel in a pitcher-friendly park, 7 can become a key number,” Pritchard said. “Of course the oddsmakers know this, and if it’s 7 or 7 1/2, they’re going to make you pay that extra juice for the under.”

In the ALCS, which begins Friday in New York, the Yankees are favored by minus 180 to win the series against the L.A. Angels (plus 160) in a match between the teams with baseball’s two best records.

The price on the favorite has been bet down from an early line as high as minus 210 on the Yankees, who are just 63-73 against the Angels since 1996.

“The money certainly has come in on the Angels, and I understand why,” Pritchard said. “The Angels have always given the Yankees a difficult time. They’re very aggressive on the basepaths. With the exception of Bobby Abreu, who’s patient at the plate, they’re a free-swinging club. That aggressive style will keep them in it.”

Baseball’s postseason presents a unique set of challenges to bettors. Instead of more than a dozen games to handicap, there might be only one on the board. As Pritchard sees it, that in itself is no reason to shy away from investing in your opinions at the betting window.

“A lot of times in the postseason the number is sharp, the total is sharp,” Pritchard said. “There are no big major secrets this time of the year. But I’m one of those people who believes there’s gold everywhere and there’s opportunity every day. It’s just a matter of uncovering it.”