Houston Rockets expected to fall, cream puffs to rise

By Jeff Haney

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Three of the NBA’s bottom feeders — the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Washington Wizards — are due for the league’s most substantial improvements this season.

Meanwhile the Houston Rockets, ravaged by major injuries to the two franchise players, are projected to sustain the biggest drop-off in victories, according to newly released odds on NBA team regular-season win totals at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

Houston’s Yao Ming is expected to miss the entire season as he recovers from foot surgery. Rockets forward Tracy McGrady, like Yao a seven-time all-star, underwent knee surgery in the middle of last season and will miss a large chunk of this season as well.

As a result the Rockets, who won 53 regular-season games and took the Los Angeles Lakers to seven games in the second round of the playoffs, opened with an over/under of just 35 1/2 victories Wednesday at the Hilton. That number was holding steady at 35 1/2 Monday after an initial early flurry of line movements in the NBA season-wins proposition.

No other team is projected to have as big a drop in its number of victories.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Lakers, who recorded the most wins in the league last season with 66 and 65, sit atop the betting board for this season, set to begin Oct. 27.

The total on the Lakers stands at 62 victories at the Hilton, up from an opener of 61 1/2. The Cavaliers are at 61 1/2 after opening at 60 1/2.

Besides the Rockets, the Milwaukee Bucks are projected to suffer through a long season.

After finishing last in the Eastern Conference’s Central Division at 34-48, the Bucks had their season-win total open at just 25 1/2 at the Hilton. Milwaukee’s Andrew Bogut and Michael Redd are returning from injuries that ended their seasons in January. The Bucks’ rotation at point guard, led by veteran Luke Ridnour and rookie Brandon Jennings, remains uncertain.

Two teams in the Eastern Conference’s Atlantic Division — the Boston Celtics and the New Jersey Nets — are projected to win 5 1/2 fewer games than last season, according to Hilton odds. Boston, with an over/under of 56 1/2, is still a strong team but might have overachieved in winning 62 regular-season games. The young Nets are probably hoping for a good draft pick and some success in 2010-11.

The total on the Wizards opened at over/under 42 1/2 and has been bet down to 41 1/2 in early wagering. That still represents the biggest step up in the league. Washington won only 19 regular-season games last season. The return of Gilbert Arenas, who looks to be back at full strength after two injury-marred seasons, and the acquisitions of Mike Miller, Randy Foye and Fabricio Oberto figure to lift Washington’s fortunes.

The total on the Clippers also has been bet down slightly, from an opener of 35 1/2 victories to 34 1/2 — still a marked improvement from last season’s 19-63 record. Blake Griffin, the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, has generated much of the optimism surrounding the Clippers.

The Thunder, 23-59 last season, opened with a total of 35 1/2 victories. Avoiding another 1-16 (and 3-29!) start will go a long way toward reaching that benchmark.

The Sacramento Kings, an NBA-worst 17-65 last season, are also expected to show some minor improvement — yet their over/under of 24 1/2 victories remains the lowest on the betting board.