iblv editorial:

Pressing on

Good news for Las Vegas that maglev group going forward with plan

Fri, Oct 9, 2009 (3 a.m.)

Despite the economic downturn, Southern Nevadans are being treated to a spirited competition between two proposed high-speed train systems that would link Las Vegas with Southern California.

One group, backers of the $4 billion DesertXpress, intends to break ground by March on a steel-wheeled train that would run to Victorville, Calif. The competing American Maglev Group wants to build a $12 billion magnetic levitation train all the way to Anaheim, Calif., though it is not as far along in terms of planning.

Still, that hasn’t stopped the maglev team from forging ahead, as reported last week by Richard Velotta for the online version of the Las Vegas Sun, a sister publication of In Business Las Vegas.

This is great news because the maglev technology is far superior in terms of maintenance, travels much faster than traditional steel wheels on tracks, and would carry passengers over the heavily congested Cajon Pass along Interstate 15. That is something DesertXpress would not do.

Neil Cummings, president of the maglev group, made sense when he explained at a transportation forum at UNLV last month why his project would forge ahead even if DesertXpress gets off the ground. “Because if somebody has a choice between 300 mile-an-hour travel between Anaheim and Las Vegas or an hour and 40 minute (trip) between Las Vegas and Victorville and then get a taxi or hitch a ride or whatever you do, I’m pretty sure we’d win a competition.”

We agree hands down.

A train is a comfortable way to travel, but why ruin the experience by having to drive for several hours in heavy traffic from the L.A. basin to Victorville just to catch DesertXpress? It just doesn’t make any sense.

That is why we find it encouraging that Cummings is willing to press ahead with maglev, the best train option for the 21st century.

Discussion: 22 comments so far…

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By Patty

Oct. 9, 2009

11:01 a.m.

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A couple of issues to point out: The Maglev's first phase is only to Primm (not Anaheim). They are not doing any environmental or engineering work in California. DesertXpress goes 200 miles into California with its first phase with a future extension only 50 miles west to Palmdale connecting to all of California with metrolink and the CA HSR system.
The next generation high speed rail is the future -- Maglev is dead -- just look at China -- the only country in the world to implement Maglev just ordered 4 billion dollars worth of steel wheel trains.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=n...

And look at Germany -- the country that developed Maglev 30 years ago -- they don't have a system either.

There is no way the Maglev can be profitable at $12B of capital costs and even that huge number is a fraction of what public agencies have estimated it will really cost. China decided not to extend their system because it is a financial disaster. 11 million people drove by Victorville last year on their way to Las Vegas -- it is the natural collection point of all east/west freeways in the Los Angeles basin. The real question is -- who would drive to Anaheim and how will they possibly fit all the parking they would need to make the station work? How is Maglev ever going to be able to stay inside the freeway into Anaheim -- the roads are all built out. They will have to buy up the houses and businesses along the freeway -- never going to happen.
By vc

Oct. 9, 2009

11:08 a.m.

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I like the maglev better but I have to agree its way to expensive to ever turn a profit.
By larry2372

Oct. 9, 2009

12:13 p.m.

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The comments about the capital costs of maglev do not make sense. For the Las Vegas-Anaheim route, at 269 miles for $12 billion, maglev comes in at about $45 million per mile for a system that will be able to hit 310 miles per hour at its top speed.

The much-touted CA HSR system, at 800 miles for $45 billion, according to the CA HSRA site, comes in at $56 million per mile. The site also claims that "...Once built, the system will not require operating subsidies and will generate over $1 billion in annual profits."

So here's the question: If a HSR system, travelling "only" up to 220 mph, can say it's going to be profitable when it's costing 20% more per mile than the maglev, which travels 40% faster, how can you say maglev's not going to be profitable?
By dgallagher

Oct. 9, 2009

5:58 p.m.

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Regarding comments made against the maglev proposal;

Patty said:
"The next generation high speed rail is the future -- Maglev is dead -- just look at China -- the only country in the world to implement Maglev just ordered 4 billion dollars worth of steel wheel trains."

Maglev is not dead. The Chinese wanted Transrapid to basically give them all rights to build their own maglev using the German technology. This is VERY typical of China to try and copy-clone other inventors designs.

That small maglev line in Shanghai has been running at close to 99.85 on-time every time, all with only the doors as moving parts.

Since Patty brought it up, can she explain then why Japan Railways, who created the first (and finest) high speed trains, Shinkansen, is going forward with the planned replacement of these dual rail lines with their own maglev design?

Another false view being made is the use of inflated speeds for dual rail trains. I have seen 200 plus mentioned and 250mph. Japan's Shinkansen tops off at 300km/hr or 186mph. Japan's maglev, without any modifications whatsoever, set the world speed record of 361mph. The French claim a 'record' of 357.2 mph.

This makes one think "Hmmm, maglev isn't any different?" Huge differences! That French test was done on a downhill STRAIGHT small section of rail line using VERY special train sets with huge wheels and a souped up power supply with very special cantilairies. The maglev was a normal standard unit.

No one (news media) seems to questioning why DesertX isn't simply saying they will build a line from Vegas to Anaheim or LA?

Could it be that the costs and problems of going through the mountains will make their "total" costs far higher?

Maglev, by design, can handle far greater inclines and weather conditions than any standard dual rail design. The mountain passes are not that great a problem for their plan.

(To be continued)
By dgallagher

Oct. 9, 2009

6:07 p.m.

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(continued)

Larry brought up an EXCELLENT point on the costs and when one rereads Patty's comments, then you have to say that the California dual rail plans are a total waste of money.

The per mile cost is $44.6 Million for maglev.

Patty stated:
"There is no way the Maglev can be profitable at $12B of capital costs and even that huge number is a fraction of what public agencies have estimated it will really cost."

If Patty reads Larry's comments, then she can say that the California High Speed plan also will fail as the per mile costs are even higher.

Can you provide factual reports from public agencies refuting their costs? Aside from facts, it becomes simply false statements to change opinion. Also, those agencies must show also that the DesertX plan (to Anaheim) is a much cheaper cost.

Maglev works and works well. This project plans to use the Shanghai design and people WILL want to travel at far higher speeds that compete with air travel.

Patty concluded:
"How is Maglev ever going to be able to stay inside the freeway into Anaheim -- the roads are all built out. They will have to buy up the houses and businesses along the freeway -- never going to happen."

How would standard dual rail every be built into major cities Patty?

One of the beauty's of maglev as planned, is that it is fully grade separated. This means it can be fully automated and not interfer with any other modes of transit.

Imagine driving down I-15 in you car at say 70mph. A train comes by overhead traveling at over 300mph and makes you feel like your sitting still.

People will favor that speed over dual rail at much slower speeds, especially when they understand that it is fully grade separated and automated to operate like clockwork.

Bravo to the LV Sun for supporting the efforts to achieve world class transit over old school dual rail.
By Skeptic

Oct. 10, 2009

8:26 a.m.

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Of course there is a big difference between the number of folks using public transportation on the California corridor v.s. metropolitan LA to Las Vegas. In 2nd quarter 2008, there were 21 thousand daily air passengers between LA and SF with only 8000 between LA and LV. The question is why wasn't maglev considered for the CA corridor.
By dgallagher

Oct. 10, 2009

11:42 a.m.

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I wondered that also 'Skeptic'. If I am traveling from SF to LA by plane and have the new choice of a train that will top at at perhaps 186 mph, would I take it?

I would also have to know how many stops the train will make along my route. The same goes for airline trips. Non-stop sure beats the other option.

But then I would be thinking, would a plane be worth it over a train that travels at 268 mph?

And, that speed is only based on the limited speed of the Shanghai Maglev. This design has traveled at 311 mph (manned and using the same configuration....no special changes).

That trip by car is about 6 hours without traffic on I-5 or 7.5 hours with traffic.

Southwest Airlines can take you on that trip in 1hr-15mins.

A maglev, non-stop would take the 381 mile trip in approximately 1hr-25mins and would possibly take you more to the center of the cities rather than to the outskirts.

The high speed dual rail would take over two hours.

This is why maglev offers an option to airlines that competes and is far more green.
By manfromuncle1

Oct. 10, 2009

1:54 p.m.

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A high speed train from Anaheim to LV is the STUPIDEST idea ever. A round trip ticket on Greyhound from LA to Vegas costs $58, and I don't see how a high-speed train can compete with that.

Just read these hate comments that were posted to this story on the abc7 local news website:
http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/story?sectio...
By nozomi07

Oct. 10, 2009

5:51 p.m.

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Isn t this an unfair comparison? The article compares the first step of DessertXpress (to Victorville) with the final step of maglev (to Anaheim). As far as I know maglev is in a first step planned to Prim - not really a better location than Victorville...

In my opinion high speed rail must serve metropolitan areas, not desserts! If DessertXpress can be connected to California Highspeed Rail, allowing direct trains to southern california and the bay area, maglev won t have any chance. Integration in existing rail networks is the great advantage of conventional high speed rail, and this should be used.
By nozomi07

Oct. 10, 2009

6:12 p.m.

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@ dgallagher,

your point about speed records is not correct: The japanese maglev is not a "normal standard unit", it has been developed specifically for test and demonstration purposes! In contrast, the french TGV achieving 357.2 mph was a modified standard vehicle. Velaro reached in Spain 250 mph without any midifications.

Maglev speed was impressive some decades ago, but the speed gap has been getting narrower: Compare Transrapid and Rail in China, travelling at speeds of 268 mph and 218 mph respectively. I dont really consider this a "huge" difference.
By dgallagher

Oct. 11, 2009

5:30 a.m.

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@ nozomi 5:51pm

Your argument that the Maglev is somehow only going to Primm while the DesertX is going to Victorville is incorrect and misleading with all due respect.

The plan has ALWAYS been to go from Vegas to Anaheim. The short 'starter' was simply to showcase the concept here in the USA.

If anything, the false proposals of DesertX should be examined by all. Why have they not simply said they paln to build a line to LA?

One must be wary of their reasons and the avoidance. Most know that the REAL costs lie in getting over the mountains. Who, in their right mind, would even think to drive their car to Victorville and then board a train?

They'd take a plane or Greyhound even over that suggestion.

Your second paragraph specifically states that HSR should serve metropolitan areas. Victorwille isn't exactly a considered metropolitan area. Anaheim is.

As to the common argument that dual rail HSR can "integrate" with existing plans, that is simply a desire to keep dual rail as we know it now as the future. We would essentially be stuck with it for decades to come, all while maglev offers faster speeds, far simplier maintenance and fully automated operation with no fencing along the entire route.

As Skeptic said, why should California build maglev? Also, explain Larry's argument on the per mile comparison.
By dgallagher

Oct. 11, 2009

6:08 a.m.

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@ nozomi 6:12 pm

Please find references to show that the maglev was modified and that the TGV was not. Simply typing comments without reference only misguides others looking for information.

I just spent 30 minutes inserting references that show undeniably that the TGV was extensively modified (not even an operational unit) and lost the data so I won't be reentering it now.

FACT: The TGV test was done on a downhill incline that was dead straight.

FACT: That TGV had huge special wheels and a vastly altered power unit and power lines that would be next to impossible to convert all their lines to (and would consume massive amounts of energy just to operate)

FACT: The Japanese tests were with their design that has been operating in tests for years and nothing was modified for their tests.

I would go on a limb and state that they could show you that test any day any time they wanted.
By dgallagher

Oct. 11, 2009

6:23 a.m.

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@ manfromuncle1 comment:

So, you are telling us that the average person would take Greyhound over maglev from Anaheim to Las Vegas?

Going to Greyhounds site, they have the following times to be on a bus:

Select Departure Schedule for Sunday, October 11, 2009

Departs Arrives Duration Transfers
07:15am 01:55pm 6h, 40m 0 GLI 6002
07:35am 04:00pm 8h, 25m 1 CRP 7506
02:00pm 07:50pm 5h, 50m 0 GLI 6010
02:15pm 10:00pm 7h, 45m 1 GLI 6021
08:30pm 04:15am 7h, 45m 1 GLI 6011

WOW! The fastest is 6hrs 40 mins with no transfer.

The maglev would get you there without transfer in roughly 81 minutes and the cost is your $58 less $3 you can pocket.

There is NO comparison here to even discuss.

And we didn't even get into traffic problems and weather conditions (aka snow and ice).
By nozomi07

Oct. 11, 2009

2:59 p.m.

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@dgallagher,

I perfectly agree with you that a high speed rail ending in Victorville makes no sense at all. But if you have a look at the map, you see that Victorville is only 50 miles away from the planned California high-speed rail in Palmdale, so DesertXpress could easily be connected to it. In this case it would not only be much cheaper than maglev (which requires an extra Cajon Pass crossing!), but could also serve many direct destinations, such as downtown L.A. or the Bay Area (impossible for maglev). In my opinion, without California high-speed rail DesertXpress should better not be built.

Concerning the speed record comparison:
A "normal standard unit" of japanese maglev simply does not exist. They have built a handful special vehicles for test purposes, and these are definitely farer away from everdays use than the modified TGV set.
By dgallagher

Oct. 11, 2009

5:50 p.m.

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@ nozomi,
"A 'normal standard unit' of japanese maglev simply does not exist. They have built a handful special vehicles for test purposes, and these are definitely farer away from everdays use than the modified TGV set."

The MLX01 train set that JR Maglev uses has been operating consistently and regularly for 12 years. If that is not normal, I cannot tell you what is?

The train set used to achieve the record for traditional dual rail was a "one-time" short run and that train set would NEVER be able to operate in real life (especially economically).

There was no room on baord to haul many passengers and the entire system would have to be rebuilt to operate something like it.

There is even a video showing a standard run with a lot of passengers. Again, "passengers" and a lot of them over the years. The video is at the following link:

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=...

If this maglev design is so "special" then why is JR Railways going ahead with a line without government assistance?

The line will run from Tokyo to Nagoya, a distance of around 286-346km. It takes 2hrs 44mins by Shinkansen high speed train and they are replacing it with a maglev line that will cut the time to approimately 40 minutes.

Yes, 40 minutes versus 2 hrs 44 minutes via their top of the line high speed Shinkansen may not seem like much (kidding of course), but they are doing it.

The test track will be part of that line BTW from my understanding. Something like 60 or 80% of the line will be tunnels.

This line would then be extended to Osaka.

The company said it can make a pretax profit of around 70 billion yen in 2026. That is $0.78 Billion.
By nozomi07

Oct. 12, 2009

5:06 a.m.

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@ dgallagher

we are getting off-topic when discussing if the maglev text vehicle had two seats more or less than the TGV test train. Both are test vehicles, thats a fact. Both are not running their record speed with passengers (look at the video you posted!)

Nobody denies that maglev is faster - but the difference is much smaller than maglev proponents claim. You have given a good example for that:

"Yes, 40 minutes versus 2 hrs 44 minutes via their top of the line high speed Shinkansen may not seem like much (kidding of course), but they are doing it."

The truth is: Shinkansen travel time between Nagoya and Tokyo is not 2:44, but 1:40. And this is not "top of the line", but the oldest high-speed line in the world, being built half a century ago.

I think we should discuss with fair arguments here. We must not forget that we are talking about a lot of taxpayer s money, and only with fair comparison we will find out which sloution fits best in this concrete situation.
By manfromuncle1

Oct. 13, 2009

1:11 p.m.

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dgallagher: When I go to Las Vegas on Greyhound I leave El Monte at 8:30 am and arrive in Vegas at 2:00 pm. The trip takes only 5 hours (30 min. lunch break in Barstow). The cost is $58 round trip--that's $29 each way. I don't have to spend any money on transportation to LAX airport or transportation from McCarren to the strip. I also don't have to make reservations. I don't know what a Maglev ticket would cost, but it would probably be a lot more than $29. And incidentally, people in LA don't like public transporation so even with a Maglev, they are still going to drive to Vegas (even if the trip takes 6 hours).
By dgallagher

Oct. 13, 2009

3:31 p.m.

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I stand to correct my time of transit for the Shinkansen Maglev from 40 minutes to 67 minutes.

Since they seem to be more knowledgeable, then their recording of 138 minutes (2 hrs 18 minutes) for their "fastest bullet trains:

Here is copy of an article from the Japan Times, a reputable news source. Based on their data, a maglev could make the round trip faster than a standard Shinkansen makes a one way trip:

Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2009

Maglev trains could cut Tokyo-Osaka trip to 67 minutes

Kyodo News

Maglev trains could shorten the travel time between Tokyo and Osaka to 67 minutes from the 138 minutes it takes today's fastest bullet trains, Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) said Tuesday.

The estimated time is for the shortest planned route of 438 km connecting Shinagawa Station in Tokyo and Shin-Osaka Station, which could cost 8.44 trillion to construct, the railway said.

JR Tokai also provided estimates for two longer routes.

The company plans to construct the Tokyo-Nagoya section of the Tokyo-Osaka maglev system with its own funds by 2025.

But it has not decided on a construction schedule or financial resources for the Nagoya-Osaka portion. JR Tokai Managing Director Shin Kaneko told a news conference the company may be able to build the section with its own funds within 20 years of the commencement of services between Tokyo and Nagoya.

In a bid to start construction on the Tokyo-Nagoya section in the first half of the 2010s, JR Tokai is planning to submit a proposal to the Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Ministry by the end of next March.

However, it is expected to take the railway a long time to coordinate with Nagano Prefecture and other local governments because they want a longer route running northward through more cities to spread the economic benefits.

http://search.japantimes.co.jp/member/me...
By dgallagher

Oct. 13, 2009

3:40 p.m.

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manfromuncle1,

I am a conservative and drive my car just about everywhere I go, even on longer trips.

I agree with you and am only arguing that "if" they were to spend a ton of money on such a venture, they should go with a concept that works and does not have any moving parts (other than the doors) and can handle steeper grades and inclement weather better, all while taking people on the trip faster.

I personally would never take a bus unless my car were in the shop. And then, I would wait until I made such a trip.

My disappointment is when news reports show the costs for DesertX only to Victorville while the Maglev is planned to Anaheim.Comments from a reliable source suggested that DesertX did not want to show the total costs since the mountain pass would raise their total significantly.

Notice that you never see any costs mentioned for the apples-to-apples route?

My argument also is that the airlines should become involved with maglev to replace all thier short-hop flights, which make up the bulk of their business. They can get Al Gore's carbon credits and make themselves look really environmental. But that's just my viewpoint.
By dgallagher

Oct. 13, 2009

3:51 p.m.

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manfromuncle1,

Is that rate a discount? According to the Greyhound site, the cheapest trip from El Monte to Vegas is $44.20 one way.
By manfromuncle1

Oct. 13, 2009

5:02 p.m.

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dgallagher:On the greyhound site, enter "round trip; el monte,ca to las vegas,nv". When you get to "fares", the round trip "casino" fare of $58 should come up. I'd like to mention that service on Greyhound has improved a lot since the 1980's. The clientele is better and the busses are new. They even did a little bit of remodeling to the Union Plaza station across from the Golden Gate Casino.
By dgallagher

Oct. 13, 2009

5:09 p.m.

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manfromuncle1,

I see. This is similar to the discounted trips to Atlantic City from Camden I used to take (free plus $20 in chips!

I was just thinking that if you took a maglev, the round trip would most likely be cheaper than one way also and you would have an extra 10 hours to gamble! LOL

Hmmm, maybe they should look at installing machines on the train?