Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

The Inside Straight:

Ivey’s popularity trumps his chip count

Ivey

Ivey

Expanded Coverage

Beyond the Sun

If the odds on the final table of the World Series of Poker were based solely on the number of chips each player has, Phil Ivey would be a long shot.

When play resumes in the World Series main event Nov. 7 at the Rio, Ivey will sit down behind one of the “short stacks” — meaning he has relatively few chips compared with the leaders.

Ivey has about $9.7 million in tournament chips, or roughly 5 percent of the chips in play. That figure would make him about a 19-1 shot if stack size were the lone factor in creating the odds.

Instead, the odds on Ivey to win the event stand at 4-1, making him one of the betting favorites at Bodog, the offshore gambling operation that was among the first in the world to post odds on the final table.

It’s a testament to Ivey’s experience, popularity and talent, according to Richard Gardner, sports book manager at Bodog.

“Ivey is still said to be one of the — if not the — best poker players in the world, and despite his low chip stack, we have seen more wagers on Ivey than any other player,” Gardner said.

Bodog, based in Antigua, has designed its World Series of Poker odds to appeal to recreational gamblers rather than so-called “wiseguys,” officially listing its betting limit at $50 a pop.

That’s higher than the maximum amount permitted in Nevada’s legal sports books — which is holding steady, in the immortal words of Dean Wormer, at zero point zero.

Wagering on the outcome of poker tournaments is prohibited under state gaming rules. Offshore betting shops, unencumbered by such regulations, typically offer odds on a variety of entertainment and political affairs as well as sporting events.

Bodog first posted World Series of Poker odds in July, making chip leader Darvin Moon, a self-employed logger from rural Maryland, the top choice at 17-10.

In a realm of gambling that’s been overrun with poker bloggers in recent years, it’s refreshing to see a poker logger achieve some success.

Other finalists commanding short prices are Eric Buchman (3-1), Steven Begleiter (4-1) and Jeff Shulman (4-1).

Rounding out the field are Joe Cada (10-1), Kevin Schaffel (12-1), Antoine Saout (12-1) and James Akenhead (22-1).

With the exception of Ivey and possibly Las Vegas’ Shulman, editor of Card Player magazine, the competitors are largely unknown to the public.

“When setting odds for this type of event with so many unknown competitors, odds are largely based on chip stacks and adjusted to take into account the skill and popularity of someone like Phil Ivey,” Gardner said.

First place will pay $8.5 million, although the title could be worth significantly more to the winner thanks to endorsement deals or man-to-man side bets that might have been made before or during the tournament.

As a result, some players could adopt a “go for broke” style of play in which they shoot for first place at all costs, even if it means taking big risks that could result in an early exit. Jerry Yang took this approach on the way to his 2007 World Series championship.

Gardner, though, believes a desire to stick around and move up the prize-money ladder step-by-step could be an equally strong motivator for some of the finalists.

“Winning the World Series of Poker main event can be very lucrative for the winner aside from the prize money,” he said. “However, no one wants to be the first one out and for the most part, players will try and survive and pick their spots to make their moves. Therefore, this does not play as a big factor in setting these odds.”

Bodog offers a series of propositions on the final table, including wagers on the first player out; whether the winner will be American (minus 1600) or European (plus 800); and several head-to-head “last longer” matchups.

One prop designed to appeal to action junkies — or perhaps to card players looking for an irresistible opportunity to support their lucky suit — allows gamblers to bet on the suit of the river card of the final hand. All suits are listed at 5-2.

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