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April 20, 2014

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ODDS ‘N’ ENDS:

How likely Colts, Saints are to go 16-0

With the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints undefeated through 10 regular-season NFL games, several proposition wagers in Las Vegas are asking whether either team — or both — will finish the job and post a perfect record.

When oddsmakers with Lucky’s sports books posted a line a couple of weeks ago asking if either the Colts or the Saints would finish 16-0, the “Yes” side of the prop was a decided underdog of plus 700 (risk $1 to net $7).

Similar props at the M Resort allow bettors to wager on the Saints and Colts going 16-0 individually as well as on either team finishing undefeated.

As both teams have continued to win, the odds on the props have dropped substantially.

Here’s one way to estimate the likelihood of the Colts running the table.

First, determine the projected point spread in each of their remaining games.

Next, convert the likely point spread to a money line, discounting the vigorish, or built-in house commission. For example, in Sunday’s game at Houston the Colts are favored by 3 1/2 points. A typical money line in a game lined at 3 1/2 is something on the order of minus 170/plus 150 — meaning a bettor risks $1.70 to net $1 on the favorite or $1 to net $1.50 on the underdog. So for the purposes of this exercise, we would settle on minus 160 and call it a “no-vig” money line.

Then, convert the no-vig money line into a percentage, or the favorite’s estimated chance of winning the game. In this example, minus 160 equates to about a 61 percent chance of an Indianapolis victory.

Do the same with the next five games on the schedule. Let’s say you think the Colts will be favored by 13 points against Tennessee (minus 550, 84 percent, or .84); by 8 against Denver (minus 320, .76); by 9 at Jacksonville (minus 350, .78); by 13 against the Jets (minus 550, .84); and by 17 against Buffalo (minus 1200, .92).

Multiplying those percentages yields .23, or about a 23 percent chance the Colts will finish undefeated. That equates to a no-vig money line of about plus 334, which in a sports book might look something like minus 360/plus 300.

Applying the same method to the Saints, who figure to be favored by 3 to 17 points in their remaining six games, would likely yield a similar result of about 23 percent.

Book signing

Doyle Brunson will sign copies of his newly published autobiography, “The Godfather of Poker,” from 2 to 4 p.m. Dec. 10 at the Gambler’s Book Shop, 1550 East Tropicana Ave., Suite 4 (382-7555).

The Gambler’s Book Shop

The book ($26.95, Cardoza Publishing) will be available for purchase at the event.

Brunson said he began working on it with co-author Mike Cochran five years ago.

Howard Schwartz, proprietor of the Gambler’s Book Shop, praised the book, calling it “brilliantly compiled and detailed, well-written and organized ... It will forever be read as an honest record of an exceptional individual and a true pioneer of the game.”

UFL lines

The Florida Tuskers have been installed as a 3-point favorite against the Las Vegas Locomotives in the United Football League championship game set for noon Friday at Sam Boyd Stadium.

Florida is minus 160 on the money line and the game has an over/under of 46 points, according to odds at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

In first-half wagering, Florida opened as a 1 1/2-point favorite with a total of 23 points. Second-half wagering will be available at halftime at the Hilton.

Lucky’s contest

The jackpot in the free progressive pro football contest at all Lucky’s sports books in Nevada has grown to $24,000 this week. The contest, free to enter with a limit of one entry per person, is seeded with a $6,000 pot. Another $6,000 is added each week if no perfect NFL cards are submitted. The contest entails picking straight-up winners only, with no point spreads involved.

Picks will be accepted through 9 a.m. Sunday (Thanksgiving games are not included) at all Lucky’s books.

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