MEMO FROM CARSON CITY:

Art of the spin, unemployment-rate style

Tiny drop gets response from pols, but experts say it’s nothing to cheer

Sunday, Nov. 22, 2009 | 2 a.m.

CARSON CITY — No sooner were the latest unemployment numbers released Friday morning than politicians offered their takes, illustrating that no fact will go un-spun this campaign season.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in a statement declared the drop in statewide unemployment from 13.3 percent to 13 percent a “positive development and further evidence that Nevada is starting down the economic road to recovery.”

Rep. Dina Titus called it a “positive sign that we are beginning to pull ourselves out.”

Gov. Jim Gibbons, however, had a different, more somber, take.

In a release headlined, “Drop in Unemployment Rate Expected to be Temporary,” the Republican governor said, “I would like to tell the citizens of Nevada we have seen the worst of the economic crisis and are seeing the fruits of recovery. The decline in unemployment has not been followed by an increase in the employment base.”

Two very different views of a single set of numbers. For Democrats, the Nevada economy is rebounding. For Republicans, no matter the overall number, the underlying data still say things are bad.

Here’s a statement that will shock no one: Politicians will try to spin the news for their own gain between now and November 2010. And the spin will be most contested in the economic arena.

Put broadly, Democrats will try to burnish any good economic news to show that the party at the national helm has things under control. Republicans, on the other hand, have a political incentive to argue that Democratic policies have failed, and therefore the economy is getting worse.

Are Republicans rooting for a bad economy, as some accused Democrats of cheering for the military to founder in Iraq when President George W. Bush was in office?

We have not reached that level of cynicism yet. But it’s important to note that the roles of boosters and pessimists reversed with the change in administration.

In the case of Nevada’s economy, when the spin stops, state and private economists generally agree with Gibbons’ view.

Because of its cause, the dip in unemployment should not be celebrated. The rate dropped because fewer people were looking for work, with others giving up in frustration or leaving the state. The number of jobs actually decreased from September to October.

“It may be a bit premature to break out the champagne and party hats,” said John Restrepo, principal at the financial analysis firm Restrepo Consulting Group and a member of the state’s Economic Forum. “Total employment still decreased by 5,600 between September and October.”

Jeremy Aguero, principal of the financial firm Applied Analysis, said the “condition is effectively unchanged between September and October.” A muted response was appropriate, he said.

“The unemployment drop isn’t because we’ve created jobs,” he said. “The principal reason is that 21,000 people stopped looking for work.”

Bill Anderson, chief economist of the state Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation, wrote a synopsis to accompany the numbers released Friday. He called the unemployment drop “welcome news; however it is not a reason to be overly optimistic.”

He continued: “We expect the unemployment rate to continue to climb over time, but we are seeing some signs of stabilization.”

So how should the public read the unemployment numbers?

Restrepo says the figures matter but must be looked at over several months to see larger trends.

“One month does not a trend make,” he said.

Aguero suggested the public take note of two numbers in determining where the state is headed — job growth and average hours worked per employee. “Businesses will give more hours back before they hire additional workers,” Aguero said.

The average weekly hours worked per employee has dropped from a high of 38 to 35.5.

Unless you want to argue that less time working means more quality time with the family, it’s tough to spin those numbers.

Discussion: 17 comments so far…

Comments are moderated by Las Vegas Sun editors. Our goal is not to limit the discussion, but rather to elevate it. Comments should be relevant and contain no abusive language. Comments that are off-topic, vulgar, profane or include personal attacks will be removed. Full comments policy.

By fremmasmind

Nov. 22, 2009

4:56 a.m.

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Just remember, if a person is no longer recieving unemployment benefits, he is no longer on the unemployment list.
This is the first time I have ever somewhat agreed with Gov. Gibbons. Scarey
By Future

Nov. 22, 2009

4:58 a.m.

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After 11 months, Obama is still waiting for the Small Business Memo from his economic team.

11 months into his Presidency still provides NO support for Small Business.

Obama says about counting jobs "I think this is an inexact science." Obama has admitted failure in producing private sector jobs, cannot count the public jobs; and needs to start over. Take the remaining stimulus money back, stop spending and change course.
By davidwayneosedach

Nov. 22, 2009

7:01 a.m.

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"How should the public read the unemployment numbers?"

Answer: By trying to find a job.
By rejco100

Nov. 22, 2009

7:53 a.m.

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The Politician's answer is to ship more USDA Surplus Food Commodities to the Soup Kitchens; even though 90% goes out the back loading-dock doors into awaiting Soup Kitchen staff's car trunks!
By rejco100

Nov. 22, 2009

8:06 a.m.

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People don't want worthless meaningless jobs.
By isthis4real

Nov. 22, 2009

8:15 a.m.

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A lot of people have left nevada for greener(?)pastures.... The article points out that employment has not increased, so that must mean they ran out of benefits, or they moved to another state. So the politicians should not start thinking that they have worked a miracle, because they have not accomplished anything in the private sector.
By mikegino

Nov. 22, 2009

8:19 a.m.

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dingo: thanks for giving an honorable mention to Neil Bush, that great Satan. Let's blame him and his brother...old what's his name...for the total failure of Obama's ersatz stimulus.

rejecto: no job is worthless or meaningless.
By perry161492

Nov. 22, 2009

9:09 a.m.

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repeat nevada will be the last one to recover because we depend on other people and construction
By KillerB

Nov. 22, 2009

12:03 p.m.

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"Just remember, if a person is no longer recieving unemployment benefits, he is no longer on the unemployment list."

fremmasmind -- you can add the people who applied for but didn't qualify for unemployment benefits because of some technicality. They were NEVER counted. Yet they're unemployed.

Yeah, that's spin.

Then there's the Bush-era tweak that converted fast food jobs into the classification of manufacturing jobs. Our society has fast eroded from what made this country great -- a highly-skilled blue collar middle class has been eliminated. All we have now are the white collar professional class -- really, what do they produce or add to the economic greater good? -- and the low paid service class with very little in between.

Just more evidence of government's desperation to remain relevant. Truth is if the People who actually know how to be Citizens and ever got organized, government as it now exists -- the Great Status Quo -- could become irrelevant. In my experience that's not likely to ever happen. "Let freedom reign" long ago yielded to mass ignorance and apathy.
By wizardofOz

Nov. 22, 2009

1:23 p.m.

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THESE POLITICO TYPES ONLY WANT YOU TO PAY ATTENTION WHEN THEY'RE PATTING THEMSELVES ON THE BACK.

THEY THINK YOU'RE A MORON, AND NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO ANYTHING ELSE BUT THEM IN THEIR SELF-CREATED GLORY.

THESE FOOLS ARE THE ONES THAT VOTED FOR THIS CRAP-OLA THAT GOT US INTO THIS PUTRID MESS IN THE FIRST PLACE.

Every night before bedtime they get on their knees and say, "Just let me fool'em one more time, that's all I ask. Just this once."

Keep a close eye on 'em, 'cause now they're really gonna crank up the lyin' machine.
By discouraged2009

Nov. 22, 2009

2:20 p.m.

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"no job is worthless or meaningless." , well except a congressman
By dhvincent1

Nov. 22, 2009

9:30 p.m.

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Dina Titus, shows again she has no clue. For a person who never has had a real job in her life despite being a university professor she shows her ignorance about Nevada's job situation.
"Rep. Dina Titus called it a "positive sign that we are beginning to pull ourselves out."
Uhh Dina, get a clue. We are losing jobs and that is not a sign of pulling out of our depression.
Wait until next month when people hired for the holidays and the rate stays about the same, she will be saying that we are out of the recession and no one is unemployed.
By environprotector

Nov. 23, 2009

11:55 a.m.

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Unemployment in Nevada is a curious subject because everyone knows that gambling is the only game in town to quote an old saying. It is up to the representatives and senators in Washington to bring more diverse industry and businesses into the state. This is what we elect them for. If the current ones are not making the grade, they will be replaced with more reliable people. Gambling used to make Nevada "recession proof" in the old days because the industry was not the corporate monster it has become. The population levels were in check, so the infrastructure could maintain itself. Now we are seeing how this monster got off it's leash and is imploding with high unemployment, and colossal hotel/casino failures, thus a decline in collectable taxes for the state to stay afloat. The overpopulation is sucking every last cent out of the state coffers for unemployment benefits, welfare, etc. This unchecked growth over the years is finally rearing it's hungry ugly head.