Las Vegas likely to see Thanksgiving holiday travel boost

By Steve Green (contact)

Published Thursday, Nov. 19, 2009 | 2:44 p.m.

Updated Friday, Nov. 20, 2009 | 9:13 a.m.

Travel is expected to increase nationwide over Thanksgiving and Las Vegas properties will likely see more drive-in traffic from the big Southern California market, industry officials said this week.

"We're expecting a double-digit increase," in Los Angeles-area traffic coming to Las Vegas, said Kirk Anderson, president of the Highway Radio group in Las Vegas.

The Highway Radio stations closely track traffic into Nevada from Arizona and California.

Using Nevada Department of Transportation statistics, they reported traffic at the California/Nevada border on Interstate 15 grew year-over-year 9.9 percent in September and 2 percent in October -- and has been up every month since April.

Anderson said the growth has been driven by the affordability of Las Vegas, continued cuts in airline capacity into Las Vegas, hassles getting in and out of Los Angeles International Airport and the comparatively stronger economy in Los Angeles leaving residents there with money to spend.

"The Los Angeles market is alive and vibrant," he said.

Another factor is the growing popularity of Las Vegas as a place to visit for Thanksgiving and Christmas, he said.

"You have lots of family here that people want to come to," he said.

Also, AAA and its affiliates have released their Thanksgiving travel forecasts, confirming Californians are expected to contribute to a nationwide increase in travel from 2008's level that was depressed by the recession.

AAA on Wednesday projected 38.4 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more over the holiday weekend, up 1.4 percent from last year.

In another report Friday, the Automobile Club of Southern California projected 2.19 million Southern Californians will travel over the Thanksgiving holiday -- an 8 percent increase from last year, but 32 percent below the 3.19 million who took Thanksgiving trips in 2007.

The top five destinations for Southern California travelers, according to a poll of AAA travel agents, are Las Vegas, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego and California's Central Coast area from Santa Barbara to Monterey.

Travel during the 2008 holiday tumbled 25.2 percent as the housing and financial crisis unfolded.

Of those traveling, fewer will be flying as the Air Transport Association of America projected a 4 percent year-over-year decrease in the number of passengers traveling on U.S. airlines.

"It is increasingly apparent that the economic head winds facing the airlines and their customers are anything but behind us. The recent announcement that U.S. unemployment surpassed 10 percent highlights one of the key factors impacting consumer buying decisions," ATA Chief Executive James C. May said in a statement.

Still, flights are likely to be quite full because of a decrease in capacity and deep discounting of ticket prices, the ATA said.

AAA said in its Pacific region, including California, travel should be up 8.3 percent for the holiday. In the Mountain region, including Arizona, Nevada and Utah, travel should inch up 0.3 percent.

Those traveling to gamble nationwide totaled 8 percent, with the highest percentages in New England at 29 percent, the Pacific states at 15 percent and the South Atlantic states (stretching from Florida to Delaware) at 11 percent.

AAA surveys also found that of those planning to travel, more will be driving -- and that they'll be spending less.

"This year’s expected increase in travel reflects improved consumer confidence from one year ago, better financial market performance and a growing sense among many consumers that the worst of the global economic crisis is behind us," AAA said in its report.

The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority hasn't yet released its Thanksgiving visitation forecast. The hotel-casino industry is hopeful that conditions will improve from November 2008, when the monthly visitor count was down 9.8 percent from 2007.

In September of this year, Las Vegas saw its first year-over-year increase in visitation since May 2008, with the count up 4.3 percent, to 3 million people, from September 2008.

But in order to fill rooms, Las Vegas hotels have lowered rates, which on average were $91 in September compared to $112 in September 2008.

AAA said average spending nationwide by Thanksgiving travelers is expected to be $718, with airfare, lodging and rental car costs all lower than last year.

AAA's forecast includes analysis of economic data and surveys of 1,350 U.S. households.

AAA's affiliate in Los Angeles issued its own forecast last week. It reported more than one-third of Southern California residents who planned to travel during the holidays would spend less during the holidays.

A survey of more than 700 Southern Californians found 44 percent plan to spend less than $500 on holiday travel and 75 percent planning to spend $1,000 or less.

In order to save money, 39 percent said they planned to stay with friends or family rather than at a hotel and 27 percent said they would stay in a less expensive hotel, AAA's Southern California affiliate said.

The affiliate said of Southern Californians planning to travel, 53 percent would travel in-state while 19 percent planned to visit a gambling destination such as Las Vegas.

In Texas, which hasn't been hurt as hard by the recession, a survey of 500 people found 64 percent planning to travel over the holidays would spend the same or more. The Texas survey found that of those traveling, 18 percent would visit a gambling destination such as Las Vegas.

In Hawaii, 83 percent of those planning to travel planned to spend the same or more, with 20 percent planning to visit a gambling destination such as Las Vegas.

Even stronger numbers were reported in New Mexico, with 85 percent of those planning to travel forecasting spending the same or more as last year -- but just 7 percent planning to visit a gambling destination such as Las Vegas.

Travelers who do make the trip are likely to find bargains in Las Vegas over Thanksgiving weekend.

The discount travel Web site Hotwire.com reported this week that Las Vegas made its list of 10 cities where hotel rates have dropped the most compared to November 2008.

In Las Vegas, the Hotwire analysis found prices are down 13 percent and a room at a four-star property can be booked at $87.

Typical rates found online for the evening of Friday, Nov. 27, were for $61 at Binion's downtown, $78 at the South Point, $111 at the Imperial Palace and $259 at the Venetian.

Weekday rates are much lower, with deals for Wednesday, Nov. 25, including $25 at the Imperial Palace and $70 at the MGM Grand -- including a $25 credit for food and entertainment.