Weighing whether Gibbons will seek reelection

By Jon Ralston

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2009 | 2 a.m.

As Year Three of the painfully memorable Gibbons governorship comes to a close, the most asked questions about his future are: Can he win, and will he run?

For most elected officials with an approval rating in the teens and a brain trust’s IQ level not far from that number, the questions would be moot. But Jim Gibbons, aka The Man Formerly Known as Governor, aka Ø, is not most elected officials. He is unique, in the worst and most confounding way.

Just when rationality seems the only option, Gibbons finds an alternative, such as claiming to have read the Harry Reid car bomb police report and finding that a shoebox and phone book were mentioned as supposed incendiary devices. Those items, though, were only in his head inside the rubber room known as Gibbonsworld.

So one could lose a lot of money betting on what Jim Gibbons will do in any given situation. But because no cash is at stake, and the pundit’s imperative is to gather facts and bloviate with something approximating certainty, here goes:

Gibbons has said he is running for reelection. Perhaps that should settle it because he has been unequivocal. But, considering history, it does not.

I see the decision being based on three factors: Polling, money and divorce.

The survey data indicate that Gibbons tops out at about a quarter of the vote in a three-way contest with ex-Judge Brian Sandoval and former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. That information comes from three polls conducted within the past few weeks — two publicly released by Mason-Dixon and PMI Inc. The other was conducted by nationally respected pollster Glen Bolger for a candidate considering a run for office, and questions about the governor’s race were included.

Gibbons may take heart in that the results show him within a reasonable distance in a three-way race — five percentage points in the Bolger poll — but losing by double digits to Sandoval in a straight-up matchup. But that is illusory.

If an incumbent whom people know well can’t get past a quarter of the vote now, the next eight months aren’t going to provide revelatory information. What, he’s really Winston Churchill? Who knew?

Two veteran GOP insiders unaffiliated with any of the gubernatorial campaigns told me Tuesday they don’t believe Gibbons can win the primary. Even if Montandon, who reportedly has raised more than a quarter-million dollars, stays in the race, he will draw from Gibbons, not Sandoval.

The only way for Gibbons to try to turn around those numbers is to, as one expert put it, “go scorched earth.” And to run a campaign attacking Sandoval takes money, which brings me to the second side of the Gibbons triangle.

Gibbons has said he anticipates having $3 million in the bank by year’s end, which means one of the following:

1. He’s not tethered to reality.

2. He struck gold on his land in Lamoille.

3. His real name is Joseph Cada.

Gibbons has very little money in the bank based on available evidence. And his fundraisers seem more suited for a school board contender than the state’s highest elected official. Tonight he is being feted by a car collector and a law firm, with suggested contributions of $250 and $500. At that rate, he will indeed get to $3 million by the end of the year — the year 2020.

Smashmouth conservative Chuck Muth, for whom anti-taxliness is next to godliness (although I doubt God could measure up to Assemblyman Ed Goedhart in Muth’s mind), wrote a piece for the Nevada Appeal last week that argued Gibbons could resuscitate himself by going anti-tax all over again (maybe in a special session?). But Gibbons has that crowd, the ones who care about no other issue than taxes.

And some folks that he should have, especially rural Nevadans, also are socially conservative and they don’t appreciate the married governor impersonating Casanova. Which brings me to the final side of the triangle, and perhaps, the coup de grâce.

If you didn’t think Gibbons’ approval ratings could go lower, come to Reno on Dec. 28 when his divorce trial with first lady Dawn Gibbons is scheduled to begin. It still seems unfathomable that Gibbons would subject himself to such public humiliation, but this is a man who has made public humiliation a staple of his governorship.

But, perhaps, all of this is hot air and the governor simply is waiting for John Ensign to resign so he can appoint himself to his Senate seat. What’s that? Gibbons has said he wouldn’t do so?

Well, that settles it.