Weighing whether Gibbons will seek reelection

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2009 | 2 a.m.

As Year Three of the painfully memorable Gibbons governorship comes to a close, the most asked questions about his future are: Can he win, and will he run?

For most elected officials with an approval rating in the teens and a brain trust’s IQ level not far from that number, the questions would be moot. But Jim Gibbons, aka The Man Formerly Known as Governor, aka Ø, is not most elected officials. He is unique, in the worst and most confounding way.

Just when rationality seems the only option, Gibbons finds an alternative, such as claiming to have read the Harry Reid car bomb police report and finding that a shoebox and phone book were mentioned as supposed incendiary devices. Those items, though, were only in his head inside the rubber room known as Gibbonsworld.

So one could lose a lot of money betting on what Jim Gibbons will do in any given situation. But because no cash is at stake, and the pundit’s imperative is to gather facts and bloviate with something approximating certainty, here goes:

Gibbons has said he is running for reelection. Perhaps that should settle it because he has been unequivocal. But, considering history, it does not.

I see the decision being based on three factors: Polling, money and divorce.

The survey data indicate that Gibbons tops out at about a quarter of the vote in a three-way contest with ex-Judge Brian Sandoval and former North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon. That information comes from three polls conducted within the past few weeks — two publicly released by Mason-Dixon and PMI Inc. The other was conducted by nationally respected pollster Glen Bolger for a candidate considering a run for office, and questions about the governor’s race were included.

Gibbons may take heart in that the results show him within a reasonable distance in a three-way race — five percentage points in the Bolger poll — but losing by double digits to Sandoval in a straight-up matchup. But that is illusory.

If an incumbent whom people know well can’t get past a quarter of the vote now, the next eight months aren’t going to provide revelatory information. What, he’s really Winston Churchill? Who knew?

Two veteran GOP insiders unaffiliated with any of the gubernatorial campaigns told me Tuesday they don’t believe Gibbons can win the primary. Even if Montandon, who reportedly has raised more than a quarter-million dollars, stays in the race, he will draw from Gibbons, not Sandoval.

The only way for Gibbons to try to turn around those numbers is to, as one expert put it, “go scorched earth.” And to run a campaign attacking Sandoval takes money, which brings me to the second side of the Gibbons triangle.

Gibbons has said he anticipates having $3 million in the bank by year’s end, which means one of the following:

1. He’s not tethered to reality.

2. He struck gold on his land in Lamoille.

3. His real name is Joseph Cada.

Gibbons has very little money in the bank based on available evidence. And his fundraisers seem more suited for a school board contender than the state’s highest elected official. Tonight he is being feted by a car collector and a law firm, with suggested contributions of $250 and $500. At that rate, he will indeed get to $3 million by the end of the year — the year 2020.

Smashmouth conservative Chuck Muth, for whom anti-taxliness is next to godliness (although I doubt God could measure up to Assemblyman Ed Goedhart in Muth’s mind), wrote a piece for the Nevada Appeal last week that argued Gibbons could resuscitate himself by going anti-tax all over again (maybe in a special session?). But Gibbons has that crowd, the ones who care about no other issue than taxes.

And some folks that he should have, especially rural Nevadans, also are socially conservative and they don’t appreciate the married governor impersonating Casanova. Which brings me to the final side of the triangle, and perhaps, the coup de grâce.

If you didn’t think Gibbons’ approval ratings could go lower, come to Reno on Dec. 28 when his divorce trial with first lady Dawn Gibbons is scheduled to begin. It still seems unfathomable that Gibbons would subject himself to such public humiliation, but this is a man who has made public humiliation a staple of his governorship.

But, perhaps, all of this is hot air and the governor simply is waiting for John Ensign to resign so he can appoint himself to his Senate seat. What’s that? Gibbons has said he wouldn’t do so?

Well, that settles it.

Discussion: 15 comments so far…

By dwms

11/11/09 at 2:38 a.m.

Suggest removal

Gibbons' legacy is Clark County's children's number of deaths is up 230% over last year. Michael Willden, the State Director responsible for overseeing Clark County's children, continues on the payroll and reports to Gibbons.

Willden's malpractices and Gibbons neglect have left the state bankrupt with settlements ordered from the federal courts.

Now, we find out Michael Willden's wife, Cynthia Willden, oversees the personnel records of state employees.
By Birdiedreamin

11/11/09 at 8:12 a.m.

Suggest removal

bring on that little gibbons monkey...
did you read the police report???
did you read the police report???
what an idiot...
bottom line...
has there ever been a governor with less leadership skills...
n-e-v-e-r!!!
e-v-e-r!!!
e-v-e-r!!!
By afveteran

11/11/09 at 11:29 a.m.

Suggest removal

Nevada's budget woes can be tracked back to the legislature, which is responsible for budgets. The governor is a mere figure with little power over the budget. His only recourse is to spend it wisely, doling it out for public services such as police and fire protection. All other services have to be cut or pared down according to the money left after the basic public safety is taken care of.
By Nevada_Scandalmonger

11/11/09 at 1:13 p.m.

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December 28. I'm penciling that in as the first day of the special session.
By darkhorse

11/11/09 at 4:32 p.m.

Suggest removal

I wonder if Dawn contacted the TV show Cheaters for some good video for tabloid fodder come Dec. 28? This poker game could get interesting.
By CaLiGuYiNvEgAs

11/11/09 at 6:46 p.m.

Suggest removal

nevada would be very stupid if he was ever to be elected again ..nevada is very stupid because hes governor now!
By DessertSun

11/11/09 at 11 p.m.

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Governor Gibbons has my support. The Democratic Legislators are what's screwing up our state. And just think our miserable Senator Harry Reid's son is the alternative, oh my god! Now that would be stupid. Nevada deserves much better than what we have. We have the power to change them. Let's take action!
By Burrittobandit2

11/11/09 at 11:45 p.m.

Suggest removal

Birdie to answer your question has there been a worst governor? Yes, Bob Miller and Kenny Guinn from my home state of Nv. Your home state of Calif; Gray Davis, the Jerry Browns.
By mred

11/12/09 at 11:19 a.m.

Suggest removal

Gibbons goes hate-talk show to hate-talk show because their the only ones that don't ask him a tough question. Radio for the mindless dittoheads.
By ghostcommander

11/12/09 at 11:36 a.m.

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Duh Gibbons has about as much chance of winning/succeeding as breaking wind in a hurricane.
By mred

11/12/09 at 5:47 p.m.

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Also I was right when I said the person hood amendment had two subjects and would be thrown out. Should have had one for beginning of life, and one for the end of life.

Also people with square shaped heads should tie their tie with a big knot to balance their look. Gibbon's looks like sponged blob square head.
By afveteran

11/13/09 at 6:56 a.m.

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I wouldn't be surprised if the governor won his re-election bid. His record of saying no to the tax and spend democrats and some GOP'ers who have lost sight of limited government and no-taxes-principles needs to be commended.
By nobull

11/13/09 at 9:03 a.m.

Suggest removal

That darn Governor Gibbons.
Fact:
1.Governor Gibbons caused the world wide recession, and if not world wide recession at least in Nevada. It is his fault that unemployed Californians are not coming here to gamble.
2.He has consistently voted to increase government spending and to raise our taxes" What a villain.
3.It is reported that he was born in Sparks, NV and received a Masters degree in Geology & Mining from UNR, but what are we to believe" is he really a Nevadan? Is he really an American, inquiring minds want to know.
4.As for the December 28th divorce trial, I have it on good sources that the Gibbons are the first Nevada couple to ever get divorced" Dastardly devils!
By wizardofOz

11/13/09 at 7:13 p.m.

Suggest removal

"...Weighing whether Gibbons will seek reelection..."

Shouldn't that read:

"...Weighing whether Gibbons will seek re-EVICTON..."
By mywallet700

11/14/09 at 9:44 p.m.

Suggest removal

I read the police report. Cleanface Reid's wife drove around for 3 days with the "bomb"/wire in the car. Some threat. When my brother lost his leg in an IED blast in Iraq, THAT was a bomb. Cleanface Reid's bomb was a publicity stunt. He sure ran the mob out of town, too!

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