Detroit Lions bet fun, not profitable

By Jeff Haney

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Oddsmakers are not going out of their way to pile on the Detroit Lions during the NFL’s offseason.

Really, they’re not.

It just seems that way.

When NFL team season-win totals were released, the Lions, coming off an 0-16 season last year, were at the back of the pack with an over/under of five projected victories. The “under” side of the betting line has a premium of minus 125 (risk $1.25 to net $1) attached to it, according to odds at the Venetian, an indication the betting market actually likes Detroit to win fewer than five games.

Now, all Lucky’s sports books in Nevada are offering a proposition asking exactly how many wins the Lions will have after their first four regular-season games: 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4.

Zero victories, or a record of 0-4 for Detroit, opened as the even-money favorite.

Still, the Lions wager at Lucky’s is the kind of imaginative prop Las Vegas bettors find appealing, and certainly worthy of analysis.

Here are the first four games on the Lions’ schedule, with my projected point spread (based on what we know right now), the concomitant money line, and the money line expressed as a percentage:

1. At New Orleans: Detroit plus 11 points; plus 475 on the money line; a 17.4 percent chance of a Lions victory, or .174.

2. Hosting Minnesota: plus 9; plus 350; .220.

3. Hosting Washington: plus 7; plus 290; .256.

4. At Chicago: plus 11; plus 475; .174.

For a point spread-money line converter, I referred to the chart in “Win More, Lose Less” by Don Peszynski, and disregarded the “vigorish,” or house’s commission, built into the line.

Spreadsheet wizards can plug in those numbers — or their own — to come up with their own odds on the prop and compare them with the betting lines available at the sports book. Here’s how the underlying computations work out:

• For “zero wins,” it’s simply a four-leg parlay that has the Lions losing each time (.826 * .78 * .744 * .826), which comes out to .396, or 39.6 percent, or “true” odds of 1.5 to 1.

The odds offered by Lucky’s are even money, or 1 to 1, so we see no play here. There’s an excellent chance you would do better than even money by wagering against the Lions four times, rolling over your profits after each game.

• For “one win,” consider there are four ways the Lions could go 1-3. Call them WLLL (a win in Game 1 followed by three losses), LWLL, LLWL, and LLLW. Using the same percentages, figure the chances for each of those four possibilities are .083 (.174 * .78 * .744 * .826); .112 (.826 * .22 * .744 * .826); .136 (.826 * .78 * .256 * .826); and .083 (.826 * .78 * .744 * .174). Adding up those chances (.083 plus .112 plus .136 plus .083) gives us .414, or odds of 1.41 to 1.

The odds offered by Lucky’s are 7-5, or 1.4 to 1. This betting line reflects our opinion of the “true” odds, but does not offer an edge to the bettor.

• For “two wins,” there are six ways to do it: WWLL, WLWL, WLLW, LWLW, LWWL, and LLWW. Using the same formula yields an outcome of .162, or 16.2 percent, or 5.17 to 1.

Lucky’s odds are 3-1. We would need a more attractive price before wagering on this option.

• For “three wins” (WWWL, WWLW, WLWW, and LWWW), the same formula yields .027, or 2.7 percent, or 36 to 1.

Lucky’s odds are 12 to 1. Again, we would be looking for a more attractive price to wager on the Lions winning three of their first four games.

• For “four wins,” a four-leg parlay that has the Lions winning each game (.174 * .22 * .256 * .174) would pay off at about 587-1 at those prices, significantly higher than the odds of 100-1 on the betting board.

Of course, if the Lions do start 3-0, the point spread in the Bears game would almost surely be lower than 11. If the Lions start 2-0, the point spread in the Redskins game would likely be lower than 7.

Whether you think 100-1 is a fair price depends on your perception of how quickly oddsmakers would adjust the lines on Detroit’s games if the team gets off to a hot start.

For example, if the Lions were just a 6-point underdog against the Vikings, pick ’em against Washington, and a 3-point underdog at Chicago, that four-leg parlay would be about a 90-1 shot.

We don’t believe oddsmakers or the betting market would react so drastically to an early-season winning streak by the Lions. It’s likely you would do better than 100-1 by betting the Lions on the money line four times, rolling over your profits after each game.