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All signs point to an enduring Democratic shift
Demographic trends ought to alarm GOP
Friday, March 20, 2009 | 2 a.m.
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Ruy Teixeira co-wrote a book published in 2002 called “The Emerging Democratic Majority.” When the Democrats got trounced in elections that year and again in 2004, the book seemed like one of those unfortunate bargain binners, like “Dow 36,000,” published in the months after the tech bubble burst.
But Teixeira’s book, rooted in demographic trends and Democrats’ burgeoning success with college-educated professionals, is looking more prescient today. The war-related elections of 2002 and 2004 now look like outliers, detours for a country otherwise moving left.
Teixeira is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he is co-directing a joint project between the liberal Brookings and the conservative American Enterprise Institute, exploring trends in political demography and geography.
His new report for the liberal Center for American Progress serves as a sort of valedictory coda, detailing the new Democratic majority and breaking down the 20-year trend in Nevada and other states.
It’s a striking document and a bracing jolt to Republicans.
The 2008 election was a mirror of 1988, with President Barack Obama winning 53 percent of the vote, matching that of George H.W. Bush. Here’s what happened: During those 20 years, the minority share of the vote increased by 11 percentage points and the white college-educated by 4. The white, working-class portion decreased by 15.
If you’re a Republican, these are “uh-oh” trends.
Other trends seem destined to exacerbate the Republican plight. Obama won the millennials — Americans born between 1978 and 2000 — by 66 percent to 32 percent. This generation is adding 4.5 million voters every year.
Single and professional women are fast-growing voter blocs and they favor Democrats by wide margins. And even though Obama did better with religious voters than his Democratic predecessors, it hardly matters. The country is becoming more secular, according to new data.
Nevada is a microcosm of these trends.
The state’s population grew 29 percent since 2000, while Las Vegas’ grew 33 percent.
Hispanics drove the growth. Their portion of the population rose 1 percentage point per year. The college-educated white portion grew 4 percentage points. The white working-class share of the total declined by a percentage point a year.
Obama won Clark County by 19 percent, some 35 points better than Michael Dukakis’ showing in 1988.
Not surprisingly, public attitudes about issues, which Teixeira culls from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, have moved in the same direction.
The public, by wide majorities, wants bold action on education, energy and health care. After years of war, diplomacy is viewed as an important policy option. Gay marriage, abortion and other cultural issues are losing resonance and have little sway over the fast-growing bloc of young voters.
Are we a center-left country? Maybe not. But Teixeira’s study shows, fairly convincingly, that the nation isn’t center-right anymore.
I’m always circumspect about the idea that demographics is political destiny, however.
Shortly after the 1988 election conservative columnist George Will wrote that Democrats were doomed by the country’s continuing suburbanization. Surely no suburbanite would vote Democratic.
But gradually, cities rebounded, and the new urban dwellers voted Democrat by large margins.
More significantly, a gifted politician named William Jefferson Clinton charmed suburban voters, not just because he was lovable Bubba, but also because he calmed their fears about Democrats.
He gave suburban, college-educated whites confidence in Democrats’ ability to be good stewards of the economy and persuaded them that his party stood for law and order and reforming welfare, which were traditional Republican issues.
As Clinton moved the party to the center and made government work, Republicans were becoming more ideologically strident and alienating America’s fastest growing demographics.
Republicans need a Bill Clinton.
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Frank, Peloski, Reid, Dodd, Geithner, obama should resign their postions in the US Government. They are incompetent and don't have the best intersts of the USA as their goals. Liars cheats and theive. they can't be trusted with the constitution and future of the United States.
After eight years of the most divisive presidency in the history of the United States it will take many many years to repair the damage that has been done. Republicans have wasted their time on pushing a religious dogma based on mythology, abortion, gay marriage and waging war while the rest of America yearned to move forward.
Finally the nation is moving away from the cowboy mentality of Reagan and Bush and towards the middle where a good nation should be. Let us not forget that the last president squandered our national wealth and sacrificed the precious lives of our proud armed forces to settle a family vendetta. The nation is tired of war and divisiveness and religious dogma and is ready to progress towards a new era. And Republicans either need to lead, follow or GET OUT OF THE WAY!!!
Why do you think Pelosi is calling Illegal immigrants true American Patriots? Why do you think E-verify was slammed down? Why do you think ICE has been frozen (no pun) from enforcing the law?
It's the democrats new wave of voters.
Not such a bad thing... soon all the "minorities" will have to support the whites. Let's see what they can do for America in the future. That was silly, we can already see it. No respect for our friends, MASSIVE debt, total dependence on the government... gee, when they have taken all the money from those who worked for it and give it to those who voted for BOzo and stand around with their hands out, where is the money going to come from then?
@ LVPaco - That was a great post.
Bush allowed us to see clearly that the republican party was hijacked by the religous fanatics.
The so-called "millennials" have nothing in common with that loud-mouthed science hating party.
The assumption is that latinos will break for Democrats. That is true to a certain degree but they are more conservative on social items than Pelosi and Obama.
It is funny that Democrats scream and yell about all the cheap labor overseas making cheap goods that hurt US jobs. But once that cheap labor crosses our border illegal they become the greatest thing on the planet since sliced bread. Those illegals harm one of the strongest pro-Democrat groups in the USA- blacks. Young black males are getting crowded out the job market when all those illegals get jobs like in construction.
Do the Democrats care? No, they want the power and they will sell their mother to the devil to get that power. They have no problem selling blacks down the river. They have been doing that for decades. They got the black vote in their back pockets. They need to do nothing to get the black vote.
bobojake,The biggest liars in history are Bush,Cheney,Rove,McConnel,Boehner,DeLay,Graham,
and a host of others who ruined America and Republicans are blaming Obama for everything when he has been in office less than four months.
This AIG thing happened under Bush and Paulson's watch regardless of who sat on what committee they should have known what was in or removed from this bailout for AIG and others. Republicans seem to forget the biggest liar of all was Bush and his lying war cost America thousands of lives and maimed soldiers as well as put America in this depression. Do you right wingers ever accept responsibility for anything. In case you missed it you are not in charge anymore, Republicans lost and you need to get over it and quit lying youselves.
homer think for your self instead of using rambo the vulgar talking point. they are call lie of the day.-----
Frank, Peloski, Reid, Dodd, Geithner, obama should resign their postions in the US Government. They are incompetent and don't have the best intersts of the USA as their goals. Liars cheats and theive. they can't be trusted with the constitution and future of the United States.
bobojake, where have you been the past 8 years?
Obama/Geithner/Dodd/Reid, etc are freakin' MENSA compared to the willful ignorance and incompetence of the Bush Administration.
The whining and screeching of all these Bushies is a staggering display of denial.
enduring??!!, at the rate the government is spending the only thing that will endure is the IOU.
LVPaco, thanks for the revisionist post. I guess the left screaming that Bush stole the election, blah, blah, blah was meant as a bonding experience.
The leadership of the two parties want "civil war" amongst the voters, this keeps everybody occupied while the politicians "mind" the store. Heaven help us.
Not surprising since the GOP is a rudderless mess.
After the Bush idiocy of lies and fabrications and the complicity of the criminal Cheney, it's no wonder people feel the need to wash the stench of the miserable Bush years away.
The GOP has zero ideas, they are led by GOP Party Boss Limbaugh, they had a complete moron for a VP candidate, and the party is split between the bible thumpers and the tightwads.
U.S. Rep James Sensenbrenner (R, WI) started a round-them-up immigration bill in early 2006, that the GOP backed and resulted in millions of Hispanic-Americans voting Democratic in the '06 and '08 election cycles -- found a cool site Balkingpoints.com ; awesome satellite camera view
It is funny that Democrats scream and yell about all the cheap labor overseas making cheap goods that hurt US jobs. But once that cheap labor crosses our border illegally then they become the greatest thing on the planet since sliced bread. Those illegals harm one of the strongest pro-Democrat groups in the USA------blacks.
Young black males are getting crowded out the job market when all those illegals get jobs like in construction.
Do the Democrats care? No, they want the power and they will sell their mother to the devil to get that power. They have no problem selling blacks down the river. They have been doing that for decades. They got the black vote in their back pockets. They need to do nothing to get the black vote.
I'm not so sure this is a "Democrat" vs. "Republican" comparison as much as it is which candidate is best for their position.
For instance, take Harry Reid and this state. This state is mainly Democratic, but, also wanting the change that is associated with Obama (just like the rest of the country).
If I were Reid, I would be nervous. He represents the "anti-change" and could be viewed as detrimental to the Obama revolution.
View more details on http://aBadReid.com
I don't believe voters here in Nevada will hold to their party lines.
Of course, there are the unions which might be the exception to this rule. I wish I could find some good data to see if unions generally vote for the candidate that their leaders endorse. This could really throw the curve off as now it's just a handful of people determining how a large majority of this state's work force will vote! Yikes!
Amazing...comments
Fox news has on video the most powerful woman in the United States, Nancy Pelosi, telling illegals that immigration raids and deportations must be stopped!
And this is a Bush thing? Bush lied people died blah blah blah. One day democrats are going to poke someones eye out with all their finger pointing.
The current administration has thrown the people that voted for them under the bus, and you can't see it. When you're all in line for welfare singing kumbaya, you can be proud while you wonder why everything is in Spanish.
all hail Democracy.
Official 2008 vote
Obama...69,456,8897
52.9%
McCain 59,934,814
45.7%
America has spoken.
It is true the sheeple of the US elected Obama and enabled the Dems with power. This is what happens when people are hungry for a leader, they will elect anybody but the party in power. Well country, look what you got.
Since Obama needs so much OJT, Pelosi and Reid are running circles around him. Reid doesn't have the majority Pelosi has so she is the De Facto president.
Remember all Obama told Pelosi was a number for the stimulus, not what to fill it with.
We are writing checks we can't cash. The stupidity must stop.
kivew, your right America has spoken. Well said, thanks for joining the real world.
What do you think that the Republicans be doing right now if McCain had been elected?