Hint of optimism

Fri, Jun 19, 2009 (3 a.m.)

Southern Nevada’s economic numbers have been so miserable for so long that it is comforting to finally read a glimmer of good news.

In Business Las Vegas reporters Brian Wargo and Richard N. Velotta wrote last week that seven of the 10 categories that make up the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators showed improvement in May when compared with April.

Keith Schwer, who monitors the index as director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, spoke with a hint of optimism when he said: “Nevada’s worst recession since the 1930s is not over, but perhaps it is coming to an end.”

We’re nowhere close to celebrating yet, not with continued declines in visitor volume and home prices, and with unemployment still on the rise. But the chorus of national economists and businesspeople who say the recession could be over by the end of the year is growing louder.

If those predictions hold true, we should begin to see a flattening out of negative data and evidence of improvement in Southern Nevada’s economy.

One example, as told to In Business Las Vegas by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, was that visitor volume in April was down 2.9 percent compared with a year earlier. That was the shallowest decline in 11 months.

Time to pop the Champagne corks? No. But there is still reason for optimism because this nation has yet to confront a recession it couldn’t overcome.