To find value in prop bets, toss out favorites

associated press file

Arizona’s Kurt Warner directs his team in a divisional playoff game Jan. 10 in Charlotte, N.C. In at least one Las Vegas sports book, Warner is among the favorites to win the NFL passing title this season.

By Jeff Haney (contact)

Monday, June 1, 2009 | 2 a.m.

The proposition asking which players will lead the NFL in categories such as rushing yards, passing yards and receiving yards during the regular season is presented as a straightforward sports bet, one of myriad football wagering opportunities available in Las Vegas this time of year.

And it is: The prop, recently posted at the Venetian on the Strip, lists dozens of players in each of those categories at various odds.

It also has a distinct fantasy football flavor, though, as it asks bettors to predict individual player performances as they relate to a wide variety of potential payoffs.

In analyzing this prop, then, my go-to guy is Shawn Wells, a former columnist for Fantasy Football Index who has a proven track record of success in fantasy football leagues through the years.

Conscious of value, Wells’ basic strategy in approaching the prop typically entails “tossing out” the favorite in each category in favor of a player with more attractive odds at least a bit further down the list — which is fine with me, as it suits my style as well.

NFL rushing title

Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and Atlanta’s Michael Turner head the list of candidates to amass the most rushing yards at odds of 7-2 and 4-1, and with good reason. Peterson won last year’s rushing title and Turner was the runner-up.

In the face of such short prices, however, Wells finds compelling reason to play against the top two. He raises questions about the durability of Peterson, who sustained a couple of high-profile injuries during an otherwise stellar college career at Oklahoma.

Turner, meanwhile, must prove he’s more than a one-hit wonder as a starting NFL running back. Before his breakout season with the Falcons a year ago, Turner served primarily as a backup or special teams player with San Diego during the previous four seasons.

Instead, Wells advises taking a look at Chicago’s Matt Forte at odds of 8-1. He believes Forte, as his team’s featured back, has nearly as much of an upside as Peterson, but at much better odds. It doesn’t hurt that, regardless of how new quarterback Jay Cutler fares in Chicago, the Bears could be forced to rely on their running game if the weather turns nasty later in the season. Six games are scheduled for Soldier Field in November and December alone.

NFL passing title

There are no surprises at the top of the betting board. New Orleans’ Drew Brees and Arizona’s Kurt Warner, last year’s leader and runner-up, command the shortest prices at 3-1 and 7-2.

Based in part on an intangible factor, though, Wells prefers Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb at odds of 12-1. McNabb has openly lobbied for a new contract with the Eagles, yet team officials have largely remained silent. Wells interprets the lack of a substantial response as an implicit demand that McNabb put up some impressive numbers. He rates the Eagles’ receiving corps of Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant as highly capable, even if none is a star. Wells points out that Brian Westbrook is the type of running back who can rack up some receiving yards as well, potentially boosting McNabb’s numbers.

Philadelphia’s overall offensive scheme favors McNabb as well.

“The Eagles are still a pass-happy team,” Wells said. “The Eagles are committed to the pass. If it’s 3rd-and-2 in the fourth quarter, they’re passing. This is a team that passes first and asks questions later.”

NFL receiving title

Wells opts to bypass favorites Andre Johnson (6-1), Larry Fitzgerald (6-1), Steve Smith (8-1), Calvin Johnson (8-1) and Roddy White (8-1) in favor of the Colts’ Reggie Wayne at odds of 12-1.

Wells believes the absence of Marvin Harrison, granted his release by Indianapolis, could give Wayne’s stats a lift this season. He also likes the fact the Colts play their home games in a dome, a favorable situation for a team’s passing attack. Finally, he gives an extremely high rating to Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning.

“All receivers are at the mercy of the guy delivering the ball to them,” Wells said. “And Reggie Wayne’s partner could be the best quarterback in the NFL.”