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November 21, 2009

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ENERGY:

Why your electric bill, all of a sudden, went up by $10.25

NV Energy raises rates as it shifts its focus from buying much of power it sells to making more of its own

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Tiffany Brown

NV Energy bought the Walter M. Higgins Generating Station outside Primm after deciding to purchase less power on the open market.

Sunday, July 26, 2009 | 2 a.m.

An Energy Addition

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NV Energy CEO Michael Yackira thinks the company can make more profit and keep costs down for customers with greater capital investments, particularly in new power plants. But questions have been raised about
projections of population growth the company is using to justify new facilities, and the Public Utilities Commission recently forced it to abandon a projection on which it was relying.

NV Energy CEO Michael Yackira thinks the company can make more profit and keep costs down for customers with greater capital investments, particularly in new power plants. But questions have been raised about projections of population growth the company is using to justify new facilities, and the Public Utilities Commission recently forced it to abandon a projection on which it was relying.

Click to enlarge photo

Sam Thompson, a member of the state Public Utilities Commission, makes a point during a meeting on June 24 as commissioner Rebecca Wagner listens. In explaining a NV Energy rate hike order, Thompson later said staggering the increases and factoring in lower natural gas prices would minimize the effect of the hike on ratepayers.

Beyond the Sun

The report NV Energy submitted to regulators this month outlining the utility’s plans for the next three years starts with something of a plea: “More than any plan since the restructuring era, this Integrated Resource Plan is colored by uncertainty.”

In other words, who knows what the future holds for Las Vegas?

Planning for growth used to be a sure bet here. But as the population flat lines and construction sites sit idle, planning has become a headache.

And in the case of NV Energy, it has set off a battle with the state’s consumer protectors, who contend the utility has inflated growth numbers to make a case for building and buying unneeded power plants that ratepayers — meaning just about everyone in Southern Nevada — will pay for.

Last week, NV Energy’s regulatory overseer, the Public Utilities Commission, weighed in and ordered the utility to revise its projections. The PUC said it wanted the most accurate growth forecasts possible so as to “not place unnecessary burden on ratepayers during this unprecedented economic downturn.”

The issue is complicated, but as every household and business in Southern Nevada can attest, it is hardly abstract.

Last month, the utility got permission from the PUC to raise its residential rates based on capital costs by 12.4 percent. The actual increase will be 6.9 percent, factoring in the lower cost of natural gas after a huge spike last summer, according to PUC calculations. That comes to an average of $10.25 a month.

NV Energy recently asked the PUC for an additional 4.2 percent rate increase for fuel costs.

Many ratepayers who have turned out for recent PUC consumer sessions say they find the escalating energy bills frightening and confusing.

Consumer advocates who study rates are alarmed that the requested increases appear likely to continue, and could be made worse if the utility overestimates Nevada’s growth over the next few years.

Others say the utility is doing the best it can within Nevada’s regulatory structure to keep pace with changing demographics.

To understand how we got to this place, it helps to turn the clock back.

On the afternoon of June 24, after NV Energy got permission from the PUC to raise rates, utility CEO Michael Yackira stood at a white erase board at his office and scribbled out the strategy he formulated when he was brought on to fix the ailing company in 2003.

At the time, Las Vegas was booming. To Yackira, the company’s direction was clear. NV Energy would buy and build its own plants rather than buy energy from other producers on a sometimes volatile open market.

Yackira listed on the board the power plants his utility has since added: Chuck Lenzie, Silverhawk, Clark, Walter M. Higgins.

The strategy was a reversal from the previous decade, when the utility — then known as Nevada Power — began selling off its assets in the midst of state deregulation. The company was set on that course until the energy crises of 2001. In California and other states, including Nevada, energy rates rose sharply as a result of manipulation of prices for power bought on open market.

Fearing the same could happen again, the Nevada Legislature decided to back out of deregulation, and instead encourage the development of new power plants to give the state long-term energy stability.

Yackira arrived on the scene shortly after the company managed to avoid bankruptcy. The PUC had ordered the utility to shoulder $437 million in losses from bad decisions in power purchases during the energy crisis, barring the utility from recouping that expense from ratepayers.

Yackira believed that the utility could recover financially by producing its own power, which also would ensure that ratepayers don’t end up again being asked to pay high rates for energy on the open market.

The PUC cooperated, easing up on the company so that its bond ratings and stock market performance could improve, which would allow it to find capital for new projects.

The company’s shareholders make most of their profits on capital expenses. The more NV Energy builds and buys, the larger the base it can earn back profits on — as long as the PUC agrees the purchases will also benefit ratepayers.

“When I got here, I talked to a lot of people and I said we have an opportunity to get stability in rates and earn return,” said Yackira, who has a sly grin reminiscent of former British Prime Minister Tony Blair’s. “It wasn’t rocket science.”

Change came swiftly. In just five years, NV Energy went from generating about 30 percent of the power it distributes to generating more than 70 percent.

Now the utility wants to own the capacity to produce all of the power Nevada needs during even its most energy-heavy moments. Yackira says that plan is to allow NV Energy to provide the best price for consumers by having the flexibility to produce its own power or buy it on the market, if that is cheaper at any given moment.

Critics say that strategy could waste money by requiring ratepayers to pay for profits on expensive power plants that aren’t used most of the year. They would sit idle much of the time because Nevada has one of the biggest differences of any state between average use and peak use, with the peaks coming in the summer, when air conditioners churn nonstop.

Nonetheless, the PUC agreed with most of NV Energy’s efforts to forge ahead with its plan.

Then the bottom fell out of the economy. In 2008, the Las Vegas population declined by 0.5 percent, or 10,000 people. Total electrical load in Southern Nevada fell 1 percent in 2008.

So the question of the moment is: Now what?

The major companies on the Strip have halted plans to build new hotel rooms after they add an expected 33,000 from 2008 through 2011.

Casino owners have been adamant that they don’t expect any new casinos in Las Vegas for at least 10 years after the current projects — including CityCenter, Cosmopolitan and the idle Fontainebleau — are completed.

Las Vegas Sands CEO Sheldon Adelson last week told the Wall Street Journal he plans instead to expand to other states, such as Massachusetts, Florida, Kentucky, Ohio and Texas.

NV Energy devised its growth forecasts a few months ago, relying in part on a study released in July 2008 by the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research, which many businesses use for forecasting.

That study predicted Clark County would grow 4.2 percent in 2008, following the “relatively strong showing” of 4.4 percent in 2007.

In that version of the study, by the center’s associate director, Constant Tra, Las Vegas would hit its peak growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2009, and then grow by a smaller percentage each year until 2035.

NV Energy blended that forecast with another completed in November 2008 by the consulting group Global Insight.

Averaging the two, NV Energy determined that despite the recent downward trend, power use will grow by 1.1 percent, or by 1.9 percent, or by 2.9 percent, depending on which of three scenarios — low, base, or high — the PUC decides to accept. It assume growth of 36 percent, 49 percent or 59 percent over 30 years, depending on the scenario.

The high and low forecast scenarios included more extensive assumptions this year, the company told the PUC.

Nonetheless, included in those projections are some assumptions that are almost certainly off the mark. For example, the utility assumes that Boyd Gaming’s $5 billion Echelon resort will open by the end of 2011. That project, which was originally to introduce nearly 5,000 hotel rooms, has been on hold since August and now has no time line for completion, according to a spokesman.

Also in that forecast was an outdated estimate of gross metropolitan product of $79.5 billion from November 2008. This had declined to $78.5 billion in February 2009, a difference of $956 million.

The use of the older data has prompted Consumer Advocate Eric Witkoski in the attorney general’s Consumer Protection Bureau to argue that NV Energy had used faulty growth projections to justify an out-of-control spending spree that ratepayers will have to cover.

“In the past, Las Vegas has grown and grown and grown and we didn’t worry because the load forecast was so big,” Witkoski said. “But now we might start adding plants we don’t need.”

He objected to a long-term agreement to acquire power from the 525-megawatt Apex Power Plant in northeast Clark County from 2010 to 2014, with an option to buy the plant. Leasing the power would cost ratepayers a minimum of $50 million to $100 million a year (the utility declined to give a more specific estimate).

That request came on the heels of a decision by the PUC to allow the utility to build a nearby 500-megawatt natural gas plant dubbed Harry Allen, costing $780 million.

Witkoski’s office had sued the PUC for allowing the construction of Harry Allen, arguing that NV Energy should instead have accepted an agreement to buy Apex for $200 million less.

But the utility says it needs both — regardless of the current economic fluctuations.

“As long as we have the population growth here in the county, it is needed,” said Roberto Denis, who is in charge of energy delivery for the company. “It’s a question of timing. It’s not one or the other. It’s one and when the other.”

But responding to the request to purchase power from Apex, the PUC agreed with Witkoski’s office that the utility did not use the correct data in making its load forecasts.

The utility, for example, should not have averaged out two population forecasts for 2011 and beyond, the PUC said.

NV Energy “does not explain why two purportedly inaccurate forecasts should be combined at all, let alone be considered accurate in the combined form,” the PUC wrote.

In addition, the PUC found that the utility did not include approximately $134 million from the federal economic stimulus that is designed to reduce energy use in Nevada, along with other money that could increase the load by creating or saving jobs.

The PUC ordered the utility to submit a new forecast.

For NV Energy, the order means that its contract to buy the Apex plant is voided. In addition, on Monday the utility told the PUC it would withdraw its three-year plan because of the growth projection problems. It will file a new one once it comes up with a new forecast.

The utility may solicit another long-term agreement with a power plant depending on what the revised forecast shows, Denis said.

Denis pointed out that other than Apex and Harry Allen, the utility does not have any major new electricity generation projects in the works.

Instead, its original three-year plan proposed a 250-mile $500 million transmission line that ties Northern and Southern Nevada. The line is intended to give the utility more flexibility in transmitting renewable energy. NV Energy has also proposed several smaller renewable energy projects costing $100 million and $325 million for energy efficiency and conservation.

To some observers, that’s a sign that the utility is adjusting to the new reality as fluidly as it can given the strict regulatory process.

Steve Wiel, Nevada representative for Southwest Energy Efficiency Project, pointed to the company’s delay of the Ely Energy Center, the 1,500-megawatt coal plant that’s indefinitely on hold.

“They submitted a plan that is virtually dependent on energy efficiency and renewable energy,” Wiel said. “In terms of corporate philosophy, that’s a major shift for this company.”

Still, the problem of planning for growth in Las Vegas remains tricky.

On July 1, UNLV released its revised forecast. Despite the recent experience from 2008 when the region declined by 10,000 people and the lack of clear signs of economic recovery, the new forecast indicated an expected growth of 3.4 percent for 2009. That would be a net gain of nearly 67,000 people. That growth will hold for 2010 and then begin to slacken, the study predicts.

Tra and Center director Keith Schwer explained that while they revised the forecast based on the delays in several hotel projects, they did not change the basic modeling assumptions. The model uses the past few years of historical data as a guide. Because until 2008 Las Vegas experienced enormous growth, the computer generated high numbers for 2009, 2010 and beyond.

Those numbers are intended for use by business and others to gauge long-term growth, Schwer and Tra said. They do not recommend looking at projections for any given year in the near-term, which could reflect what they say are merely short-term fluctuations.

“It changes each year, but the basic growth profile is that this is an area that will continue to attract population,” Schwer said. “The objective here is to plan over the long run. You would not want to make projections based on volatile cyclic behavior.”

Discussion: 34 comments so far…

  1. go up $10, are they nuts I actually went up almost $100. Almost fell out of my chair looking at the July bill. Liars Liars Liars

  2. the down side of too much power infrastructure is the inability to make a profit if the open market is oversaturated. can the utility sell its power elsewhere at competitive rates? its obvious the local market has and will decline in usage for the next two years; PUC must act to prevent any price gouging until the market stabilizes. who knows when that will be?

  3. NV Energy is not only unfriendly to renewables and the environment, they are enemies of the consumer. They only thing they care about is maximizing profits, squeezing every dollar out of rate payers, in order to pay fat cat shareholders and the CEO's salary in the double digit millions.

  4. As if the cost our summer electric bills are something new. Pay now or pay more later(who knows where the economy will be down the road). Instead of intrusting other power companies by subjecting ourselves to have to pay their rate increases down the road which could be more than what we are experiencing now, we should provide ourselves with power generating stations in our area. N V Energy had planned to raise rates 15%. They didn't because of the way the economy is now and that they could survive on a lessor hike. Nothing is easy now because of our countries economic problems. I would rather have N V energy be able to control our rates by generating power with their own power plants than be dependent on power plants owned by others.

  5. "The PUC said it wanted the most accurate growth forecasts possible..."

    That would depend on knowing the impact of what Obama is doing for foreclosures, cap and trade, healthcare, and the the slow roll out of the stimulus.

    Las Vegas power consumption and national population migation is driven by Obama's policies.

    We should not pretend to know - so you plan hard needs on the low end and plan soft projects that can be moved forward at the high end.

    Start requiring solar panel on new contruction and you can keep up one for one with need.

  6. All POWER BILLS are going up because Obama Administration is AGAINST power. He wants his renewable energy plans in place ... the way to do that ... tax power, coal companies more. They pass the expense to us. We get upset at those companies - when we should be upset with Obama. Obama gets to play the "good guy" when all of this is his fault.

  7. Obama said if you pass his CAP and TAX plan there's "no doubt your energy bill will go sky high". He said it, not me. Well it hasn't even been passed yet, so with the Obama / Reid plan you will be paying much higher than this.

  8. My bill didn't go up at all. :)

  9. Mine went up about $15 for a 2 bedroom apt. I figured it was because of using the AC but my habits didn't change from the previous month as indicated on the usage chart.

  10. My power usage went down 11% from last year at this time. My power bill went up approx. $100 for the month. We can only expect even higher bills if cap and trade are passed. I can't image what we'll pay in taxes if the healthcare bill is passed.

  11. So let me see if I understand this correctly. The PUC says it's ok to raise the rates of Southern Nevada power users, but this same PUC allows NV Energy to lower it's rates fro people in Northern Nevada because of the drop in fuel prices. What's up with that. Are there 2 separate PUC's in Nevada or do they figure southern Nevadans won't mind getting the shaft while the north pays less? Also, isn't the natural gas fuel cost the same all over the State?

    http://www.elkodaily.com/articles/2009/0...

  12. gee!!! are we realizing that obummer stands for taxes, taxes, taxes and lies, lies, lies?

    Cap and trade can still be voted down....push your senator and representative!!!!

    this health bill will eventually kill you....espececially if you are and older american.....

    think about it!!! taxes, taxes, taxes for more lies!!!

    make sure the elected idiots read the bills first if they do not they are playing with all our futures!!!

    REMEMBER THE STIMULUS BILL!!!!!

  13. just to let people know how it works for your rates. fuel cost are allowed to be 100% recovered from ratepayers. Now management at plants could role costs that could be questionable into fuel costs. In southern Nevada you have one coal plant and 6 gas plants. the harry allen, sunrise plant are considered peaker plant which allow power to come online quickly.Clark plant has peaker units also. So with gas rates at lows currently power should be going down but with the new cost of the plants the are building, aquired they are allowed to recover the cost and a percentage above whats invested. hence the higher rates. They also like the use of outside contracting to do repair because that falls into recouping expenses that are not set by the PUC( employees are calculated in to the cost of the plants so if overtime is used they lose that wage, contractor does work charges company they submit to puc to recover cost and return for expense)also waste and mismanagemant for organization in my opinion as a shareholder is probably poor and resource aren't used properly. There are also expenses related to maintaining the lines and substation dept which calculated in the cost of generating. Theft at facilities( copper ) is a cost. I also believe the company is top heavy in management positions to manage outside contract work. Also remember renewables must have a backup source to provide power if the renewable cannot produce which is why renewables are costly 500MW or solar needs 500 Mw of gas or coal so when purchasing you need to buy both :( and the transmission line is good for connecting the north and south north uses more power in winter we use in summer so that give the company to utilize thier facility up north only good decision in my opinion. also they should improve relations with thier labor unions and stop wasting money with arbitration from not following contracts they agreed on and create a happier work force

  14. Isn't it amazing that Obama has been President for 7 months and already everything is his fault. I didn't vote for President Bush. When he was elected I supported him because he was President. That was until he went to war in Iraq. When I moved here 15 years ago I bought stock in Nevada Power. It seemed to be a well run company. When Sierra Pacific purchased the company my stock went from $24 a share to $16 dollars a share. I was concerned about the change and it seems my fears of Nevada Power falling apart came true. Also I don't own the stock. Nevada Power, I'm sorry, NV Energy needs to stop sticking it to us and get their act together. The powers that control all of this don't want renewable energy because it will effect their big pay checks. Of course that is my opinion, I could be wrong.

  15. Obamanomics - Trickle Up Poverty - and let's not forget his "Yes Man" the great Senator Harry Reid who is enabling him. I just want to remind them "It's the economy Stupid!" Obama does not care about Nevada or the PEOPLE of Nevada, he just wants his "Yes Man" re-elected and then, your vote.

  16. Jemster2
    I'm with you. All these people b******* that it's ALL Obama's fault seem to have short memories. He was elected during one of the worst economic times this country has seen and it keeps getting worse. IT IS NOT HIS FAULT!! I don't agree with some of his programs, ie that health insurance thing, but he is trying. During just about every presidency, taxes have been raised. Sure, Bushie didn't raise taxes but he was sure frivolous with our tax dollars (Iraq ring a bell you people complaining? Same president who wanted to send in troops into Buffalo!!!) Can you imagine if the country didn't p*** away those billions of dollars fighting in an "invasion" that we had no business being involved in how things could possibly have been different today? Maybe we wouldn't be headed for a 40% tax increase for every American in the future.

  17. they are full of it . that average is twisted, they need to look at the average rise per square foot, not per address or however they do it because those $10 increases must be living in a small area. I have a 5 member family - our usage down 18% year over year , 13% previous month - we are working hard to lower our bills etc but still a 120$ increase. All these ideas great ideas for utopia, health care reform maybe with coverage for all, green energy, eco-taxes (like taxing gas until its too expense to drive to improve the eco) , etc, but i fear myself and the rest of the middle class will not survive it. and yes it probably is because of many, many years of govt failing the people of this nation, but the medicine may prove as deadly as the disease.

  18. Jemster and Katie,

    Your voices of intelligence and reason are soooooooo refreshing in these posts of complete negativity and unhappiness.

  19. hey jemster, look closely at all his failures in 7 months and then look again in five....he cries about inheriting 1.3 trillion dollar deficit, but then avoids admitting to tripling it with his stupid spending....he cries about being criticized by people on national television...looks like the drunken sailors came home to roost in the democratic party.....and are spending like crazy!!!

    bush had more class than to use the media as a whipping post against people who criticised him....

    if nvenergy inflated the numbers then it should be reviewed and their request denied!!!!

  20. "He cries about being criticized by people on national television"? When did this start becoming about Palin?

  21. NV Energy, scammers like everyone else in these here parts. I wonder how many people are going without A/C this summer? Or ringing up bills they won't be able to pay.

  22. Welcome to Air Conditioned Summer. If you turn it on....you pay. Here in California we pay a baseline rate of 0.11 / kwh, then a second tier of 0.15/ kwh, then if you go over 130% of baseline it's 0.26/ kwh. I live in an 1100 sf house, July has been hot. I just got a bill for $148.35. The highest I've ever had, but i know many in larger houses who insist on keeping it like a refrigerator who pay 800-900 or more, so if I can get by with 150 a month for the next 2 or 3 months, I'll survive. By the way, yes, Obama is destroying this country. Bush wasn't great, neither was Clinton, But The more Obama does, the better Bush or Clinton look. Of course, Reid, Boxer, Feinstein, etc. are no better. NV energy should build the plants, they can get rich selling the excess to Califirnia which hasn't built a major power plant in decades.

  23. Bakersfield,
    The figures you state, are they basically for the electricity you use, do you have on top of this any other charges, like standing charges etc

    Any tax on the electricity.

    In the future, the thing to watch out for will be the CO2 tax, that is a tax on fossil fuels, whether it be for your car or your electricity. I do believe that it is already in some states in the USA. It will come, and from the beginning it will be only cents, but as time goes by this CO2 tax will go up and up and up, so the days of cheap electricity are fading fast.

  24. The heat must lower the IQ level of a number of you. The PUC allows the utility to raise rates due to the downturn of the economy and some of you blame it on our President? Ridiculous! Your brains must have dried up in the arid climate. You use anything to promote your right wing agenda. It won't work! By the time the next presidential election comes the economy will be flying along and all of this will have been forgotten. Lots of luck.

  25. This is absolutely nothing, just wait until Cap & Tax kicks in. You'll be missing these good ole days.

  26. Thanks Jemster and Katie and geenab65, at least some rational thinkers. You can't blame everything on the Obama administration or the Bush administration.

  27. @Tann Summers...

    Not only did Obama make our electric bills go up, but since he has been elected, I've had suspension troubles with my car, the valve cover gasket started leaking oil and I no longer enjoy salmon the way I once did. I've also had some stomach aches and a general feeling of malaise. OK, that could have been from eating Papa Johns, but it's more likely related to one of Obama's new initiatives.

    This man is clearly ruining the country and the world one day at a time. I heard that he is the one supplying North Korea with nuclear weapons; and he's trying to show Tehran how to make a better nuke, too. He is the reason the polar bears are dying; he is the primary cause of global warming; he knows where the bees went.

    And you remember that tsunami in 2004? Do you know who was just a couple dozen miles offshore of Thailand fishing at the time? That's right. It was Obama. Now, he wasn't president then, but he was still ruining things for everyone else.

    And Pan Am flight 103? Obama.

    Chernobyl? Well, that was Reid and Feinstein, actually.

    Pearl Harbor? Kent State? Tet Offensive? Oklahoma City? World Trade Center? Obama. Obama. Obama. Obama. Obama.

    Heck, I was recently talking with a theologian who suspects that it might have actually been Obama, not Eve, who enticed Adam to eat the apple. So, the whole exiled from Eden thing? You guessed it. Obama.

    In looking at the man's track record, I'm glad it's just a $10 increase in my electric bill. I'm surprised it wasn't a pound of flesh and my firstborn son. Because I read on Brietbart that Obama likes to eat babies.

    Oh yeah, Obama and the Dumbocrats also plan to allow abortions well into the third trimester, and they hope to make gay marriage mandatory.

  28. My rates went up because the PUC is on thee take and have no 'Nads'!

  29. Replying to uddeboda:

    "Bakersfield,
    The figures you state, are they basically for the electricity you use, do you have on top of this any other charges, like standing charges etc
    Any tax on the electricity."

    Pacific Gas and Eletric Co. (P.G.&E.) bill:
    The rates are as follows: Total use 970 kwh
    Baseline 620kwh @ $0.11531
    101-130% of baseline 186 kwh @ $0.13109
    130-200% of baseline 164 kwh @ $0.25974
    (I assume if you go over 200% the rate goes higher).
    These rates are broken down to include generation, transmission, distribution, public purpose programs, nuclear decommissioning, DWR bond charge, Ongoing CTC, Energy cost recovery, State and city taxes.
    Trust me, If there's a tax to be had, California takes it. I think "public purpose programs" is free energy for welfare recipients. The total electric cost on the bill is $140.19, not bad for the month of July, I guess. The gas bill adds another $8.17. So what is the cost of similar use in Nevada?

  30. Thanks Katie it is good to know there is someone else out there that sees the forest for the trees. We need to address the power that is NV Energy not the power we get from them. President Obama could also take some of the money going to the financial power brokers and give it to us here in Nevada for putting solar on our roofs. That would be a step toward lowering all of our energy costs.

  31. Rusty,
    I could not stop laughing when I read your post!! But you did forget something.....

    Obama was to blame when DSW ran out of black peep toe pumps for $26.00

  32. Bakersfield.

    My query to you does not come from Nevada, but from another country, you are perhaps new here, almost everyones knows me by now, Im from Sweden. Overall your price per Kwh is reasonable, even if the high% baseline IS expensive, but still, its compares with our prices, and we have a VAT @ 25% in our prices. Your useage for July at 970 Kwhs must be because of A/C. We have very little use for A/C here so my figures for July are the lowest of the year about 150 Kwh which also includes cooking, we dont use gas here

  33. Conservatives will always find fault in anyone who doesn't believe in their lifestyles. They will also deny any wrongdoing to their grave. Look at Sen. Ensign, Gov. Gibbons, Larry "wide-stance" Craig, Gov. Sanford, and the entire Bush Administration.

    Doesn't matter if they screwed another woman, a man in a bathroom stall, or the entire country. They're mostly shameless, pathetic, vicious, cold, and downright evil people.

  34. Im confused, my bill went down $20 this month? I have an idea for all of you that are complaining, raise your air a few degrees, turn it up when you leave the house...its pretty simple, actually easier than complaining

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