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Jon Ralston analyzes what the Senate Majority Leader faces in his bid for reelection in Nevada
Sunday, July 26, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.
On Friday morning The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza, who helps set the Beltway conventional wisdom, took Harry Reid out of his top 10 list of most vulnerable senators.
Cillizza sees with his D.C. telescope what Nevada insiders see with their naked eyes: The Senate majority leader has no formidable opponent, he is on track to raise $25 million and state Democrats enjoy about a 100,000-voter registration edge. Reid hardly is safe 464 days before the election, but he hardly seems vulnerable anymore.
Except ...
Except that he still has some of the worst polling numbers in the country for a senatorial incumbent — a Mason-Dixon poll last month found that only 34 percent of the electorate had warm and fuzzy feelings about him, and 46 percent did not think too highly of him. Those are fatal numbers for most elected officials, especially one who has been around for four decades, which surely has caused a contagion of Reid fatigue.
Reid, though, has masterfully played the anointment game so far, cobbling together support from business types and Republicans while squeezing donors who might give to formidable hopefuls such as Rep. Dean Heller. It’s good to be the Senate majority leader.
Combine the financial clamp he has applied with Reid’s reputation as a fearsome inside player who will make any candidate pay a heavy price for challenging him and he has thus far warded off any serious challengers. So I see why Cillizza culled Reid from his top 10.
Except ...
There are plenty of folks talking about and even campaigning for Reid’s seat on the GOP side. And even a no-name has a chance against someone whose approval numbers are upside down. Ex-Assemblywoman Sharron Angle may draw tittering from the political cognoscenti, but she is relentless, and with some outside funding, she almost cost Heller that congressional seat two cycles ago. And there will be plenty of outside funding this cycle as the national Republicans have Reid as their No. 1 target — and, I’d guess, their Nos. 2 through 10, too.
Angle is not the only one, either. Ex-state Sen. Mark Amodei, politically active physician Rudy Manthei, state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, ambitious Regent James Dean Leavitt and some rich guys nobody knows such as Chuck Kozak and John Chachas all are either actively looking or actively campaigning. The old cliche that you can’t beat something with nothing may be turned on its head next year because these various nothings may have a chance against a majority leader who doesn’t have much margin for error, $25 million or no $25 million.
Reid, though, is unlikely to fret much about a Chachas or Kozak candidacy because the last time some moneyed carpetbagger won a prominent office in Nevada was ... wait, I’ll think of it ... give me a minute ... I’ll get back to you. And the others, though they have some potential, all have varying degrees of baggage that $25 million could be used to define early, middle and late. Money can heal all wounds in the campaign world.
Except ...
Except the national atmospherics could make somebodies out of nobodies pretty quickly if the economy doesn’t improve, if health care reform implodes, if President Barack Obama’s numbers turn Reid-like. As the most powerful Democrat in the legislative branch, he wouldn’t just have to carry the national negatives if they exist; he would be the symbol of them — at thousands of gross rating points a week next summer.
Reid even has problems from the left, where a simple delay in that health care vote has resulted in scathing and sneering blog posts locally (The Las Vegas Gleaner) and nationally (Daily Kos). Reid is fortunate there are no evident Ned Lamonts in Nevada or he almost surely would have a significant primary challenge, too.
And local atmospherics will come into play. Having two Reids on the ballot — County Commissioner Rory Reid is seeking the governorship — cannot help the Senate majority leader as revulsion to dynasties could have an effect. And constant chatter about Reid’s ethics from the GOP — an exhumation of that Los Angeles Times series about his family’s lobbying, the recent amendments of his financial disclosures that show how wealthy he has become through land deals — could have an effect.
Reid may be able to blunt much of this through the argument, bought by many smart people, that a small state should never sacrifice having the Senate majority leader, an argument that is supposed to transcend partisanship. Reid will continue to show the value of that position with well-timed announcements of the 479th death of Yucca Mountain and millions of dollars in grants. That, with the $25 million, might just be enough to get the job done.
Except ...
Jon Ralston hosts the news discussion program “Face to Face With Jon Ralston” on Las Vegas ONE and publishes the daily e-mail newsletter “RalstonFlash.com.” His column for the Las Vegas Sun appears Sunday, Wednesday and Friday.
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Again, which American citizen wants to re-elect a Senator especially when he's the Senate majority leader and he's sponsoring the Dream Act, A bill to give a pathway of citizenship to children brought into our country by illegal parents. These children may be up to 30 years old now and we have no records on how old they were when they were brought into our country.
Once a citizen and they turn 21, they can bring in all of their relatives with a greencard through family member. Our government figures 4 to 5 million of these children exist(again we have no records). Now multiply that number by 10 to 20 and you have 40 to 100 million people. You think citizens are having a hard time getting jobs now? Its unbelievable to think any congressman or any senator would sponsor a bill like this that would destroy our country even more than it is being destroyed now.The Senate has a bill S.729 and the house has a bill H.R.1751.
Call or write Dirty Harry, who is sponsoring the bill in the Senate, and remind him that it was we the American citizens who voted him into office and he works for us the citizens not the illegal populace. Call Johnnyboy Ensign and ask him if he has time in between C street and his girlfriends would he do what is good for Nevada citizens. Don't forget about Shellybelly Berkley she is also sponsoring this bill in the House. She needs to be reminded also that she works for Nevada citizens.
I would gladly vote for a Republican instead of Dirty Harry.
i surely wont vote for either reid.
and i have written him about the dream act...health care...illegals..
seems to always get the form letter BS reply...
The point of the rant is the Too Big to Fail Senator Harry Reid'm and Weep while totally inept is being protected by the Democrats.
Reid, Pelosi, and the other leaders of the Democratic Party are working furiously behind the scenes and against the wishes of the vast majority of the public, to create a final immigrant amnesty under any name you wish to call it that will forever doom the Republican Party to never winning another national Election.
Why else would in the face of millions of Americans out of work would Reid and others repeatedly refuse to make E Verify permanent or strip it from the Stimulus Bill so that way money can continue to go to politically connected contractors that will hire the cheapest illegal workers they can find.
The Democrat Party and its leaders are playing with FIRE!
I am a Democrat, I voted for Carter and Gore! Illegal Immigration, lack of workplace enforcement of immigration laws, and Anchor babies and Chain Migration and fraudulent worker visa programs stealing good jobs from Americans has made me go CRAZY.!!!!!!!!!
The internet and sites like Numbersusa(dot)com are not letting the liars we voted in hide anymore, we can see what they have done and we know why they are doing it. I am no fan of republicans who only care about taxes on the rich and ignore the 40 year tax on the working poor immigration has wrought, but as Democrat I HATE my Party leaders and the likes of Reid and Kennedy and Pelosi and what they are doing to my country. If I live long enough to go piss on Kennedys grave I will be a happy man.
The ironic thing is once enough immogrants get the vote they will not re elect the current traitors but elect one of their own and further the unassimilated balkanization of our country.
If average little people like me that 4 years ago could not even tell you who my senators or representatives were becomes so angry and aware of how my leaders are voting, then there is change coming , but Obama and the democrats may not like it when it comes!
Reid will be reelected, the talk radio crowd does allot of talk but no action. Is Palin going to campaign against him?
Why doesn't Rush Limbaugh move to NV to campaign against him, or Sean Innsanity (he always complains about NY taxes) or loud mouth Mark Levine? Talk show host Jerry Doyles always rants against Reid and lives in Vegas, why doesn't he put his cue ball in the match?
I'm sure that the Sun will extensively research how Harry Reid, poor boy from Searchlight, came to be a multi-millionaire in his 4 decades of "public service"?? As a libertarian-conservative, I oppose much of his and his party's agenda. I do give him credit for sending some benfits to Nevada and being a stand-up guy on 2d Amendment issues.
That aside, he sold his soul for the Majority Leader's position. He has embraced much dubious liberal/socialist legislation, defiantly and unethically denied many Bush judicial appointments, and undermined our troops and foreign policy by declaring that the Iraq War "was lost", when in fact it had been turned around by a courageous President. Always making political points below the belt, that's our Harry. Further, he and his toady, Catherine Cortez Masto, the AG of Nevada, put the screws to LT Gov Brian Krolicki, who is sen as Reid's toughest opponent. If the GOP can find an attractive moderate-conservative/libertarian, with adequate $$$ to run against Sir Harry, they have a strong chance to win. Their chance will be much better if the economic situation and health care situation create a good GOP year in 2010. My view is that the key will be if conservative/libertarian LDS members vote their conscience rather than blindly knee-jerk for fellow LDS member Reid.
"contagion of Reid fatigue."
I think this little tidbit about sums it up nicely.
Haha, why not ask Billy Walters how the Las Vegas Land Swindler managed to acquire his wealth.
Nice to know that Harry cares about the quality of life for other Nevadans by helping to ensure that we will be inundated with the extended families of the 20 million illegal aliens currently in this country, many of whom are impoverished illiterates (hello east Las Vegas!).
That's because Harry and The Kenyan will fight for amnesty, the Dream Act and de-fanging of eVerify. Their objectives will result in as many as 100 MILION new "Americans" getting their "fair share" from you and me.
If you think a trip to the bank or CVS is like entering a third world country now, just wait until Harry and San Fran Nan ram through Chairman Maobama's plans.
Haha, the United States will become even more of an international flophouse than it is already!
It seems to me that Mr. Ralston and The Las Vegas Sun are satisfied with one Pulitzer Prize for Public Service.
http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2009/apr...
When will they really start working for the public interest and expose the biggest corruption scandal in Nevada history???
http://www.citizensclubforgrowth.org/med...
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsbur...
http://www.newsreview.com/reno/content?o...
Plus a new one in the AIG theft of American Taxpayer funds...
http://www.popmodal.com/video/2208/AIG-S...
The man will be re-elected because he has a very long list of federally-funded accomplishments for local governments, constituents, and environmental and economic development projects in Nevada. Precisely his job.
The current articles, blogs, and posts do not identify a single action from Reid that has damaged Nevada or its citizens. Instead, the complaints consistently harp on what might happen in the future (fear), his connection to liberals (anger), and his money-making skills (jealousy).
Thus, the opposition continues to wager on emotions instead of facts, and the odds are low.
Personally, I'm thrilled to have a voice in DC that represents our Nevada as educated, open-minded, and capable of evaluating issues from various perspectives! We have long been portrayed as a state that tolerates little except the vices for which we are famous. I am proud that Harry has risen as he has... has avoided personal scandal... and has reserved judgement on those that have suffered challenges. Is he pushing for change? Yes! But do we really believe it's not needed...?
OpenRange: I like Harry but its visceral. He's doomed.
Just like Daschle - Reid vomited the same liberal propaganda and he will be removed from office too.
Nevadan's are waking up. They are seeing that if they continue voting in the liberal socialites we will end up like California. BROKE.