Drawing lines in the sand: Raggio’s two-session strategy

By J. Patrick Coolican

Thursday, July 16, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Some people in politics play checkers — plodding, fairly predictable moves and blunt instruments. Others play chess, anticipating future moves far down the game.

State Senate Minority Leader Bill Raggio, R-Reno, is in that second category.

Although the Democrats hold a 12-9 edge in the state Senate, Raggio held considerable leverage during the recently finished legislative session because passing a tax increase to close the state’s yawning budget gap required Democrats to win the constitutionally required two-thirds majority, or 14 votes.

Raggio and his Republican caucus used that leverage to win long-term changes that will rein in local government employee pay, as well as public employee health and retirement benefits — all significant long-term costs.

They insisted that new revenue come from existing taxes, divided between sales tax and the modified business tax, which is a payroll tax.

They also won another concession that was a little curious at the time.

They demanded that the tax increases sunset, ending in two years. The problem is that with the economy recovering so slowly — if at all — and more people losing their jobs and needing food stamps and health care, the state’s fiscal situation will be as bad in 2011 as it was this legislative session.

And, there won’t be a federal stimulus bill to help close the gap.

As a result, when legislators meet in 2011, they’ll be dealing with another fiscal nightmare, and won’t be able to count on the $781 million tax hike they approved this year because of the sunset provision.

Why would Raggio, who will return for his final session in 2011, want to walk into that?

The answer seems to be related to another mess the Legislature will have to deal with in 2011 — reapportionment.

Every 10 years, after the census, the Legislature must redraw congressional and legislative maps to reflect the movement of population into and within the state.

Republicans face the prospect of Democrats drawing the lines, and a potential Democratic governor signing the new map into law.

Parties are not averse to drawing the lines in their favor — known as “gerrymandering.”

Raggio is trying to defend not only his party against this prospect, but also his beloved Northern Nevada. The north has grown less quickly than Southern Nevada and so deserves to lose legislative seats, and with them, influence and resources.

Forcing Democrats to deal with another fiscal crisis in 2011 will likely mean they will have to court Raggio again to get his vote for a tax increase.

In other words, Raggio bought himself some influence in the drawing of the new maps.

Raggio was traveling Wednesday and could not be reached, but his colleagues acknowledged the strategy.

“Yes, that was definitely a factor because of the importance of reapportionment,” said state Sen. Randolph Townsend, R-Reno, who helped negotiate the deal and is close to Raggio.

“It was not lost on us,” said Warren Hardy, a Republican who retired from the state Senate recently.

(Both Townsend and Hardy said Republicans, and Raggio in particular, had another central consideration: a desire to reform the tax code in a fundamental way, something that was not possible this session given the need for a quick fix. The sunset will compel legislators to make fundamental choices about the tax code in two years.)

The Raggio gambit won’t necessarily work, however.

Clark County now has more registered Democrats than Republicans in every single Senate district, meaning Sen. Barbara Cegavske and Sen. Dennis Nolan, both Republicans, could face tough challenges, and the seat vacated by Hardy could lead to another Democratic pickup.

If Democrats win two of those seats, thus getting to a veto-proof two-thirds majority, while continuing to hold a two-thirds majority in the state Assembly, they will be able to make policy with impunity. And, they’ll be able to draw their own legislative and congressional maps, which will influence Nevada politics for the next decade.

At that point, Raggio’s long mastery over the Senate would finally end.