How low can the GOP go?

By Jon Ralston

Friday, July 10, 2009 | 1 a.m.

If the state Republican Party were a public company, it would have one of those statements in its SEC disclosure that mimicked the one filed by MGM Mirage at its low ebb:

“Based upon facts and circumstances that existed as of December 31, 2008, the Company had previously disclosed that there was substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern and the report of the Company’s independent registered public accountant contained an explanatory paragraph with respect to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.”

Here is what that explanatory paragraph might say if the GOP had to file such a document: “The Company has almost no money and no investments with any potential. The Company’s two leaders are in a free fall. Jim Gibbons is despised by about 90 percent of the electorate, and John Ensign is on his way there if he’s not careful. The Carson City branch of the Company has been losing members steadily, with only 23 of the 63 board members not beholden to a hostile party. We see little upside for the coming year and potential long-term bankruptcy come November 2010.”

If the party were on the New York Stock Exchange, it would have the same fate that has befallen its main donor in Nevada — Gondolier Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson. As Las Vegas Sands has fallen from a stratospheric high of just under $150 a share less than two years ago to hovering around $7 this week, so, too, has the state Republican Party fallen into a deep hole since the halcyon days when Gibbons won the governorship, Jon Porter was still a congressman and the party controlled the upper house of the Legislature.

The GOP would seem to be a buy low candidate if ever there were one — how could it get much worse? But most donors, stingier than usual because of the economy, might well be asking a Johnny Carson-like question: How low can it go?

“We run the risk of having a 2-to-1 (state) Senate if we don’t get things turned around very quickly,” GOP consultant Robert Uithoven told a Republican gathering this week.

That may have been inspire-the-troops hyperbole, but Uithoven’s overall point should not be lost. Put simply: There is not an important race next year in which the GOP can be considered the favorite, with the exception of Dean Heller’s congressional seat, whether or not he runs for the U.S. Senate (unlikely).

The party has no obvious candidate for governor, only a jumbled primary that could get even more crowded and one that, conceivably, could allow the incumbent to become the nominee — a prospect that frightens most GOP strategists. The GOP also has been thwarted in its quest to find someone to run against one of the most vulnerable U.S. Senate incumbents in the country, Harry Reid, with a passel of unknowns, fringe types and out-of-staters floating their names so far.

Buy low? I’m not so sure.

The Democrats also hold all the other constitutional offices, save the lieutenant governor’s slot, and the incumbent there, Brian Krolicki, is under indictment. Krolicki may well be vindicated and even use that not-guilty verdict, should it come, as a springboard to reelection or even higher office. But that seems like a long shot now, and the Democrats have to be considered favorites to retain the offices they hold.

Buy low? I’m not so sure.

The Legislature, especially if the economy improves, also could continue to tilt toward the Democrats. They still have a huge registration edge statewide and in key GOP-held districts in 2010, they could be competitive. Uithoven’s 2-to-1 state Senate may not occur, but no one believes a veto-proof majority (14, or a two-seat pickup) is impossible.

Buy low? I’m not so sure.

Add in the Ensign-Gibbons overlay — the party’s two leaders both embroiled in nasty sex scandals, with Ensign acknowledging an affair, and Gibbons accused of one or more by his wife in a tawdry divorce case. This is not your family values GOP.

Buy low? I’m not so sure.

But there are scenarios that could see an uptick in the GOP’s fortunes. The economy could continue to sour, with the blame falling on the ruling party. Heller could file against Reid. Federal Judge Brian Sandoval could run for governor, or the Democrats could be undone by a gubernatorial primary bloodletting between Clark County Commission Chairman Rory Reid and Assembly Speaker Barbara Buckley. And the GOP may find itself awash in money from donors fed up with President Barack Obama’s policies and strong, viable candidates may surface for key offices.

And the Cubs will win the World Series this year, too.

The reaction by the faithful has been harsh. Republicans are practicing cannibalism with a passion, apparently believing if they eat the tax-hiking apostates, the body politic will be purified and the GOP will soon nurse itself back to health. Companies do execute purges when times are tough, but so far no new leaders have emerged, no one to restart the party. Remember who was supposed to take on that task? John Ensign.

A going concern? The state GOP should be more concerned that it could be going extinct in Nevada, or at least dormant for decades, if the trend continues.