Lawmakers’ eyes widen at term limit vacancies

By David McGrath Schwartz

Wednesday, July 8, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Nevada voters who passed term limits in the 1990s might have imagined it would bring a clean sweep of veteran politicians from office. What they’re likely to get will instead look more like musical chairs.

Nearly a dozen Assembly members are considering running for seats in the state Senate that will be vacated by incumbents in 2010 because of term limits. At least one senator forced out by term limits is seriously considering running for a seat in the Assembly.

Lawmakers moving from the lower house to the upper might prevent sweeping change from descending on the state in 2011, when the Legislature next meets, but it also could soften the impact of lost institutional knowledge.

The moves will create a host of open Assembly seats, as lawmakers abandon the safe perch of incumbency in the hope of moving to the state’s upper house.

The primary election isn’t until June 2010. But candidates are now laying the groundwork, approaching potential supporters and donors and trying to figure out the field.

National term limit advocates say politicians changing offices is to be expected. “It’s very common for lower house members to run for the upper house,” said Philip Blumel, president of the national advocacy group U.S. Term Limits.

Most of the 15 states with term limits have an eight-year limit per legislative body — Nevada’s is 12 — and the goal is to prevent incumbents from being entrenched, Blumel said. Even if office holders are swapping places, it’s likely to give voters a choice, he said.

“Term limits are successful when there are open, competitive elections,” Blumel said.

Sig Rogich, a Republican political consultant who helped pass term limits in the 1990s, said he wasn’t bothered by the rush of Assembly members eyeing seats in the state Senate.

“You’re not going to see that many of them,” he said. “And some of them are going to lose.”

Indeed, some races could pit multiple Assembly members against one another, while other races have also drawn the interest of local elected officials who would be competitive candidates.

Voters approved the term limit amendment in 1994 and a second time, as required by the state constitution, in 1996. It limits members of the Assembly to six two-year terms and state senators to three four-year terms.

The 2010 election will be the first in which term limits will prevent state legislators from seeking reelection.

The stakes are high for both Republicans and Democrats. In 2008 Democrats wrested control of the Senate from Republicans and won a veto-proof, two-thirds majority in the Assembly.

Moderate Republicans, led by veteran state Sen. Bill Raggio, used as leverage the two Republican votes Democrats needed in the Senate to pass a tax increase. Raggio demanded that Democrats set a ceiling on new revenue, have most of the added taxes sunset in 2011 and make changes to public employee pensions, benefits and collective bargaining.

Democrats were frustrated that because of their reliance on Republican support in the Senate they could only work around the margins instead of bringing structural change to the state’s tax system. To avoid a repeat, the party has made picking up two more Senate seats a priority.

In the Assembly, the 14 Republicans were largely irrelevant because Democrats didn’t need their votes.

Assembly Minority Leader Heidi Gansert conceded that Republicans must come up with plenty of candidates. “We are going to work very hard to get to 15,” she said.

In the Assembly, 10 of 42 seats will be open. In the Senate, seven of 21 seats will be open because of term limits, and another will lose its incumbent because Sen. Warren Hardy, R-Las Vegas, resigned after the session.

Term-limited senators aren’t as interested in moving to the Assembly, something Blumel sees nationally. “The seats aren’t as prestigious; you have to run for office more often,” he said.

Sen. Maggie Carlton, who said she’s “pretty much decided” to run to replace term-limited Democratic Assemblywoman Ellen Koivisto, is the exception. She said she sees little difference between the two houses of the Legislature.

“There’s still a lot more work I want to do,” she said.

The Senate races that Assembly members are eyeing include:

• Clark County No. 2: held by Sen. Maggie Carlton, D-Las Vegas. Assemblyman Mo Denis, D-Las Vegas, said he is considering a run for the seat.

• Clark County No. 7: held by state Sen. Terry Care. Assemblywoman Kathy McClain and Assemblyman Mark Manendo, both Las Vegas Democrats, are considering running for the seat.

• Clark County No. 10: held by Sen. Bob Coffin. Las Vegas Democratic Assemblymen Ruben Kihuen and Tick Segerblom both said they are considering the seat, but Segerblom would have to move into the district.

• Washoe County No. 1: held by Sen. Bernice Matthews, D-Reno. Assemblywoman Sheila Leslie, D-Reno, is considering running for the seat.

• Washoe County No. 2: held by Sen. Maurice Washington, R-Sparks. Assemblymen Don Gustavson, R-Reno, and Bernie Anderson, D-Sparks, are considering running for the seat.

• Washoe County No. 4: held by Sen. Randolph Townsend, R-Reno. Assemblyman Ty Cobb is considering running for the seat, but would have to move into the district.

• Capital District: held by Sen. Mark Amodei. Assemblyman James Settelmeyer, R-Gardnerville, is considering a run for the seat.