Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

ODDS ‘N’ ENDS:

Wagers that are best not allowed

0129TheBoss

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Bruce Springsteen will play the halftime show of Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday. Some offshore Web sites offer odds on which song he will play first, but in Nevada, all legal wagers must be based on what happens during a sporting event.

The Sports Book

Alex and Jeff Haney shed some early light on the Super Bowl lines.

Those lists of odds published by offshore gambling emporiums asking bettors to wager on which song Bruce Springsteen will sing to begin his Super Bowl halftime show leave me with mixed emotions.

Which was probably posted, somewhere, as a 15-1 long shot to be the Rolling Stones’ opener at halftime of the Super Bowl in 2006, had they opted to go the “Steel Wheels” route rather than with “Start Me Up.”

For the record, “Born in the USA” and “Glory Days” are co-favorites at 2-1 to open Sunday’s show, followed by “The Rising” (4-1), “Born to Run” (5-1), “The Wrestler” (5-1), “Radio Nowhere” (8-1) and “I’m on Fire” (12-1).

The betting lines are from Bodog, based in Antigua, though other betting shops in “faraway places” — to borrow on the classic modern-day euphemisms popularized in Las Vegas — have released their own odds.

One place gamblers cannot legally wager on the set list is Nevada, where state regulations dictate bets must be based on what happens in a sporting event. Betting on the results of song selections, commercials, awards and the like is verboten.

And that’s for the best. Too often the most exotic — mostly nonsports — proposition wagers we hear about are essentially advertising tools, existing to generate publicity for their creators rather than a healthy two-way exchange of money at the betting windows.

Compared with hard-core football props, wagers on events such as set openers are also prone to controversy. For instance, I recall once making a gentleman’s bet on the first song of a Phil Lesh and Friends concert in Las Vegas.

I predicted they would open with a jam — a call that was insightful, courageous and ultimately accurate when the band kicked off the show with an extended jam immediately followed by “Dear Mr. Fantasy.”

But when I went to “collect,” there was a dispute. My opponent claimed the opener was not a jam, but actually a strange version of “Dear Mr. Fantasy” that happened to have a long, funky intro.

Such are the hazards of oddball bets, which could represent a potential extra headache for bookmakers who have their hands full during the Super Bowl with prop-related questions such as:

• Do sacks count in the over/under on the number of tackles by an individual player? (Generally no, but always read the fine print before wagering.)

• Do 2-point conversions count in the prop on the number of different players to make a reception? (Generally no, but read the fine print.)

• If a player finishes with no receptions in the Super Bowl, does the “under” win in the over/under prop involving his longest reception, or is the bet refunded? (Generally the under wins, but ... You get the idea.)

The same holds true for weird bets such as the over/under on how many food references John Madden will make during the telecast (there has been heavy action on over 1 1/2 at Bodog) and the length of Jennifer Hudson’s rendition of the national anthem (bet up to 2 minutes from 1:54, evidently after gamblers scoured YouTube for previous Hudson versions.)

Taking bets on such nebulous props seems like asking for trouble. For example, does the national anthem begin with first note or with the vocal portion of the song? What if the anthem opens with a jam?

So keep the off-the-field wagering stuff in faraway places. And regarding betting on the halftime set list, Mick Jagger said it best in 2006, refusing to divulge his choice of songs beforehand: “They needn’t worry about it. Calm down more and take life as it comes.”

The other form of nonsports oddsmaking in the spotlight at home and abroad this week — betting on the Academy Awards — is a different story.

A couple of Nevada casinos post odds on the Oscars “for amusement only,” meaning no bets are taken. It would be beneficial to loosen the regulations and allow bookmakers here to take bets on the Oscars if they desire.

The wagering limits could be kept relatively small, and the odds could be taken off the board well before the Academy Awards ceremony itself, allowing for a short but acceptable window of time during which fans could place their bets.

The outcome, with the prices dictated by real-money wagers, would be more accurate odds emanating from Las Vegas.

As it currently stands, the “just for fun” odds in Las Vegas are often seriously out of whack with the worldwide betting marketplace.

The most egregious example this year comes in the best supporting actor category. Heath Ledger “opened” as high as 6-5 in Las Vegas (risk $1 to net $1.20) to win for his performance in “The Dark Knight.” At betting shops based outside the U.S., with cash on the line, the odds on Ledger range from minus 1450 (risk $14.50 to net $1) to minus 2500 (risk $25 to net $1).

At best, huge differentials like this foster confusion among people who try to pay attention to betting odds and what they mean; in the worst case, they could lead media consumers to believe something is fishy in Las Vegas casinos.

Changing the rule to allow real-money wagering on the Oscars in Nevada would alleviate the problem.

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