Political happenings of 2009

By Jon Ralston (contact)

Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2009 | 2:01 a.m.

If only 2009 could top 2008, when Caucusmania ran rampant, presidential candidates vied for worst state pronunciation as they expressed their Yucca-hate, and The Gibbons Follies threatened to become “The Mousetrap” of political theater.

This year all we have is an economic apocalypse creating a potential political Waterloo for many officials, a legislative session that could make Gaza look peaceful, and jockeying for Campaign 2010 that will soon clog the skies with trial balloons, some with more hot air than others.

Is this a great job or what?

All of the anticipation for the coming year forces me to lug the crystal ball from storage and display my oracular skills once more.

If you want to know why you should heed well the words below, consider that a year ago I foretold Larry Brown’s ascension to the County Commission (OK, no big deal), the Democrats’ veto-proof Assembly majority (not bad), Gov. Jim Gibbons being cleared in that federal probe (now we’re talking), Ron Paul’s second-place finish in the GOP caucus here (stellar, if I must say) and this: “The budget cuts will be worse than anticipated.” Prescient, I tell you.

Well ... not quite.

For those of you who actually need a reason to ignore me, I have more than one. If I had been right at this time last year, Bob Beers and Joe Heck would still be senators and Jon Porter would still be a congressman — no one (at least this nobody) could have predicted the Democratic tsunami a year ago.

Luckily, pundits are like politicians who lose elections: They never quit; they just keep trying until they get it right. To wit:

The locks

The Legislature and Gibbons will not solve the budget problem in 120 days. One special session will be required. Then the Gang of 63 will be called back again before year’s end to address more budget woes.

Gibbons will propose the most draconian budget anyone can remember, with pay cuts, employee benefit eviscerations and local government pilfering. Lawmakers will change a gubernatorial budget more than any group ever has, adding about 10 percent to the Gibbons $5.7 billion plan. The governor will veto the package, which will include an increase in the payroll tax and some other tax/fee gimmickry. He will be overridden.

There will be major conflicts during the session — mostly between Democrats trying to find a way to combat the governor. Someone will write that Speaker Barbara Buckley and Senate Majority Leader Steven Horsford don’t see eye to eye. Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera and Buckley confidante Sheila Leslie will spar behind the scenes. Some Democrat will float the idea of impeaching Gibbons.

The probables

Stavros Anthony will edge Glenn Trowbridge to succeed Larry Brown on the Las Vegas City Council. Mayor Oscar Goodman will be used by both candidates in their propaganda and will express outrage that he never gave permission. Shari Buck will win the North Las Vegas mayoralty.

The following people will be floated as possible contenders against U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, SAGE Commission Chairman Bruce James, U.S. Attorney Greg Brower, state GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, Rep. Dean Heller, state Sen. Joe Heck and Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, who will make a deal with prosecutors on those budget-dodging charges. By the end of the year, Reid will have $10 million in the bank and look formidable.

The following people will be floated as possible gubernatorial contenders: Rep. Dean Heller, state Sen. Randolph Townsend, ex-state Sen. Bob Beers and every Democratic constitutional officer except Controller Kim Wallin (none will run).

County Commission Chairman Rory Reid and Speaker Barbara Buckley will each report close to seven figures on hand soon, Gibbons will continue to say he is running as will North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon, and Goodman will take himself out of contention.

A gaming company will go bankrupt. Some high-level Gibbons staffers will leave. Someone will suggest the idea of a Ty Cobb coup against Heidi Gansert in the Assembly.

The fantasies

In a shocking twist, federal Judge Brian Sandoval, whom Reid helped appoint, will succumb to entreaties from national GOP types and decide to challenge his benefactor. He will immediately be seen as the favorite.

The Review-Journal will continue to fold section into section, its news hole ever shrinking until one day it will have no choice but to insert itself into the Sun.

Finally, a seemingly ageless pundit will reach the half-century mark and Gibbons and Goodman will declare a day in his honor.