UNEMPLOYMENT:

Forecast: 1 in 10 Nevadans jobless

But economists see Obama’s spending plan bringing relief over time

Friday, Jan. 2, 2009 | 2 a.m.

LAS VEGAS SUN FILE

Goodbye, 2008 (12-31-2008)
Little comfort or joy for many in recession (12-25-2008)
Jobless rate hits record high in November (12-19-2008)

Nevada’s unemployment rate may top 10 percent this year, UNLV economist Keith Schwer says, before any benefits of President-elect Barack Obama’s economic plan are felt here.

But once Nevada gets through 2009 — when unemployment will fluctuate between 9 percent and 10 percent, it can exhale and expect better days, says Schwer, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

In November the state recorded a 24-year-high unemployment rate of 8 percent, up from 7.7 percent the previous month, according to the Labor Statistics Bureau. The national unemployment rate in November was 6.7 percent.

In October, state economists had forecast the unemployment rate at 8.2 percent at the start of the new year and peaking at 8.8 percent by the end of 2009.

In mid-January the state’s employment research and analysis bureau will revisit the nationwide employment forecast, said Bill Anderson, chief economist for the state’s Employment Training and Rehabilitation Department, which releases Nevada’s monthly jobless report.

Anderson did not say whether he agreed with Schwer’s higher rate estimate, but agreed the year-old recession is worsening.

“Suffice it to say, this downturn has been much more severe than most people I’m aware of have anticipated,” he said.

Both economists anticipate the second half of 2009 will be better economically than the first. Schwer said the Obama administration’s handling of its fiscal policies could start benefiting the economy in the second half of the year.

A loosening of the credit markets to promote spending by year’s end will help, Schwer said. Anderson said he hoped, too, for some stability by the end of the year.

“What we’re looking for is the unemployment rate to continue edging upward over the next several months” and, “at best,” reach some economic stability late in the year.

Reno and Las Vegas face the greatest challenges, Schwer said. The job market in the construction industry remains the hardest hit as developers find it difficult to get funding and buyers for their projects.

There were 111,700 unemployed people in the state in November, Anderson said.

The last time Nevada’s unemployment rate rose above 10 percent was in June 1983, during then-President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office. The rate was 10.1 percent, declining from a 10.8 percent high six months earlier as the nation recovered from a recession.

A version of this story appears in this week’s In Business Las Vegas, a sister publication of the Sun.

Discussion: 9 comments so far…

By RobertD

1/2/09 at 8:04 a.m.

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I've been through this economic puffery before, in Houston from 1982-1987. Lost my house, unemployment was stuck at 8-10%. Finally had to move from state to state to keep working. Yet every year, local economists would say that "next year, Houston will start coming back". Never did. The point is that this article is your typical feel-good know nothing puffery. As they say "Keep the day job, kids, there's 3 people outside with lunch bags waiting to take it for less money".
By TXART

1/2/09 at 9:37 a.m.

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RobertD says Houston's economy never came back. I live in Houston and it has been booming for years now. We couldn't even find enough people to fill the available jobs. Of course, it's in the downturn now like everywhere else. I've been here for 28 years and saw the boom, the bust, and the gradual recovery. The economy is cyclical and will come back. The question is - how long?

I think the overall economy and Las Vegas will see a gradual improvement late in the year and a steady rise from there. What will hurt Las Vegas is that the building of megaprojects will probably be the last to recover.
By stevem

1/2/09 at 9:43 a.m.

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The problem with Vegas is that it's going to take a long time for enough people across the country to feel "rich" enough to spend the kind of money in Vegas that justified all those hotel rooms.

And it will take many months of THAT increase in revenue for the construction industry to get moving again to get the employment numbers up.

RobertD is totally correct as far as keeping the day job. I've been looking for a job...ANY job for 3 months. I'd work for minimum wage at this point.
By jfnance32

1/2/09 at 9:50 a.m.

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We need a big broad base tax increase on all business to fix this unemployment problem.
By RobertD

1/2/09 at 10:49 a.m.

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TXART, my letter meant that Houston never came back in the period I was there-1982-1987. Shortly thereafter, we all had the Bush 1 (the economy, stupid?) recession. Now we have the Bush 2 (Huh?)recession. One point is that Las Vegas and Houston have the problem of being tied to one industry-gambling and oil. Both cities always talk about diversification, and Houston has done a better job than LAS, but in the end, both cities will have problems due to this reliance on one sector of the economy.
By davidwayneosedach

1/2/09 at 3:02 p.m.

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That 10.1% is right up there with the highest un-employment of the country. It will probably significantly worse this month - Januar 2009 - alone.
By LasVegas2009

1/2/09 at 6:55 p.m.

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Im sure the real truth is a lot higher than what they tell us. Its just hold on and wait time. Obama is going to fix everything. The stock market is moving up again. When he takes office and Bush is back in Texas things will start improving.
By morgen

1/3/09 at 5:22 p.m.

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LasVegass2009, I wish it were that simple.
By Warrior_Mom

1/3/09 at 11:08 p.m.

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hey nancey taxes are the problem not the solution.
we need more big business. mom and pop shops do more harm than good. I dont want to pay more for products made in america. we need to get rid of unions.