Forecast: 1 in 10 Nevadans jobless

By Nicole Lucht

Friday, Jan. 2, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Nevada’s unemployment rate may top 10 percent this year, UNLV economist Keith Schwer says, before any benefits of President-elect Barack Obama’s economic plan are felt here.

But once Nevada gets through 2009 — when unemployment will fluctuate between 9 percent and 10 percent, it can exhale and expect better days, says Schwer, director of UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research.

In November the state recorded a 24-year-high unemployment rate of 8 percent, up from 7.7 percent the previous month, according to the Labor Statistics Bureau. The national unemployment rate in November was 6.7 percent.

In October, state economists had forecast the unemployment rate at 8.2 percent at the start of the new year and peaking at 8.8 percent by the end of 2009.

In mid-January the state’s employment research and analysis bureau will revisit the nationwide employment forecast, said Bill Anderson, chief economist for the state’s Employment Training and Rehabilitation Department, which releases Nevada’s monthly jobless report.

Anderson did not say whether he agreed with Schwer’s higher rate estimate, but agreed the year-old recession is worsening.

“Suffice it to say, this downturn has been much more severe than most people I’m aware of have anticipated,” he said.

Both economists anticipate the second half of 2009 will be better economically than the first. Schwer said the Obama administration’s handling of its fiscal policies could start benefiting the economy in the second half of the year.

A loosening of the credit markets to promote spending by year’s end will help, Schwer said. Anderson said he hoped, too, for some stability by the end of the year.

“What we’re looking for is the unemployment rate to continue edging upward over the next several months” and, “at best,” reach some economic stability late in the year.

Reno and Las Vegas face the greatest challenges, Schwer said. The job market in the construction industry remains the hardest hit as developers find it difficult to get funding and buyers for their projects.

There were 111,700 unemployed people in the state in November, Anderson said.

The last time Nevada’s unemployment rate rose above 10 percent was in June 1983, during then-President Ronald Reagan’s second year in office. The rate was 10.1 percent, declining from a 10.8 percent high six months earlier as the nation recovered from a recession.

A version of this story appears in this week’s In Business Las Vegas, a sister publication of the Sun.