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If an industry is immune to recession, it’s health care
Baby Boom ensures need for more workers
Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009 | 2 a.m.
If Nevada is a boom-or-bust state, the economic meter is clearly pointing at bust.
But despite cuts in Nevada’s leading industries, health care continues to create jobs, fueled by another boom: The aging of Baby Boomers.
In Nevada the health care industry is expected to gain 11,700 jobs from 2007 to 2011, while the retail and hospitality sectors are each expected to lose more than 12,000 jobs over the five-year span, according to a recent forecast by the state’s Employment, Training and Rehabilitation Department.
The construction industry is predicted to be the hardest hit in the state economists’ forecast, shedding 38,800 jobs.
The forecast was based on demographics and the assumption of population growth, said Jered McDonald, a state economist. By 2011 the population age 65 and above is expected to grow 20 percent, to 371,000. The older population will require more health care services.
UNLV economist Keith Schwer said the aging of Baby Boomers would affect the entire health care industry, not just particular sectors. However, despite health care’s expected growth, don’t expect it to offset other industries’ job losses, he said.
Overall, state economists expect roughly 89,000 jobs will be lost from 2008 to 2010. In 2011 the state expects almost 13,000 jobs to be created across the state, except in real estate and construction, which are both expected to continue losing jobs.
Nevada’s unemployment rate in December hit 9.1 percent, a 25-year high for the state.
On the national level, health care gained 19,000 jobs in January, continuing its upward trend, the Labor Statistics Bureau reported. In 2008 the industry gained 30,000 jobs a month, according to the bureau.
Families with young children and pregnant women are also placing demand on the health care industry, Southern Hills Hospital Chief Executive Mike Johnson said. Women’s services — such as obstetrics — and pediatrics are highly used at the hospital, he said.
But even so, economists’ forecasts can be a bit misleading, he said.
“When you say health care jobs, you have to be thinking about pharmacies, nursing homes, home health and rehabilitation, and hospitals and physician offices — see what I’m saying?” Johnson said. “So it encompasses a lot of different things. Those numbers are also predicated on some growth assumptions of population that may or may not come to fruition as a result of the economy.”
Those assumptions, he said, are based on an aging population.
“Over the next 10 to 15 years, you’re going to have more and more Baby Boomers who are hitting 65 and they require more health services,” he said. “So, yeah, there will be a growth of jobs, but the distribution of jobs, which will be interesting to watch, a lot of it is really driven by population and age. That’s an issue our whole country will be facing,” said Johnson, who is also a registered nurse and specializes in geriatrics.
In 2008 health care spending nationwide reached $2.4 trillion, and is projected to reach $3.1 trillion in 2012, according to a report by the National Coalition on Health Care. By 2016 spending on health care is expected to reach $4.3 trillion.
A version of this story appeared in this week’s In Business Las Vegas, a sister publication of the Sun.
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This "may" be true in Nevada but it is not true all over. I happen to work for a Medical Group and while we have not had any lay offs we have been told our benefits will be cut drastically. This Medical Group also works relatively close to a hospital that just had over 200 lay offs. The majority of which were nurses. Another hospital close to where I work also had major lay offs. My husband works for a Pharmaceutical Company and they have let about 100 employees go locally and well into the thousands nationally.
The basis for continued growth in the health care industry makes sense. The hurdle that may continue to grow is that as the stock market tumbles, the aging population will have less and less money to pay for their own health services, premium care, etc... and the loss of 89,000 jobs by 2010 can't help but take a bit out of the people's ability to pay for their needed health care. If the growth in health care jobs is based solely on need, and does not consider economic realities of who will foot the bill, the growth may be myopic in its estimate.
Scott Linklater
Author of "How to Land a Job in Las Vegas: Don't Gamble with Your Career."
http://www.how-to-land-a-job.com
Lets be honest: the way things are going, neither the people nor the government will be able to afford healthcare. There will not be money to pay for healthcare! Sign up: who wants an $8 CNA job changing diapers at a nursing home?